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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a post · Apr 28 10:22

After Li Auto broke below the $70 mark, its stock has been trading sideways; can the buyback support short-term sentiment?

From the perspective of the automobile manufacturing industry, market performance was mixed on the previous day (27th). $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ A surge of 4.74%, $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ An increase of 1.97%, while $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$
A slight drop of 0.29%, $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ A decrease of 2.78%, $GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$ And $GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ Also fell.
Looking at the automobile manufacturing industry, the market showed mixed performance on the previous day (the 27th). $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ A surge of 4.74%, $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ An increase of 1.97%, while, $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ A slight drop of 0.29%, $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ A decline of 2.78%, $GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$ And, $GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ Also fell. Technical signals show divergence: despite varied stock price performances, both Li Auto and BYD’s technical indicator summary signals are “Buy,” reflecting a positive outlook on their short-term technical picture. In contrast, Nio's technical signal is “Sell,” while Geely Auto and BAIC are “Neutral.” This suggests that the ideal weak consolidation is taking place in an environment where there is differentiation within the sector, but the leading stock (BYD) and its own technical rating remain relatively positive. The 'buy' signal diverges somewhat from the weaker share price, which usually indicates that a technical rebound has underlying support. However, the trigger and strength of the rebound still depend on improvements in the overall sector sentiment or validation from specific catalysts (such as buybacks or delivery data). Li Auto's closing price on the previous day (27th) was 69.700. The discussion focus is on whether the company will start a buyback below 70 yuan, whether the stock price can stabilize around 70 yuan in the long term, and whether this year’s new models can bring growth potential. Market sentiment is leaning towards观望 (wait-and-see), with supporters...
Technical signals show discrepancies: despite varied stock performances, both Li Auto and BYD received a 'buy' technical indicator summary signal, reflecting a positive view on their short-term technical outlook. In contrast, Nio's technical signal is 'sell,' while Geely Auto and BAIC are rated as 'neutral.'
Looking at the automobile manufacturing industry, the market showed mixed performance on the previous day (the 27th). $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ A surge of 4.74%, $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ An increase of 1.97%, while, $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ A slight drop of 0.29%, $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ A decline of 2.78%, $GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$ And, $GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ Also fell. Technical signals show divergence: despite varied stock price performances, both Li Auto and BYD’s technical indicator summary signals are “Buy,” reflecting a positive outlook on their short-term technical picture. In contrast, Nio's technical signal is “Sell,” while Geely Auto and BAIC are “Neutral.” This suggests that the ideal weak consolidation is taking place in an environment where there is differentiation within the sector, but the leading stock (BYD) and its own technical rating remain relatively positive. The 'buy' signal diverges somewhat from the weaker share price, which usually indicates that a technical rebound has underlying support. However, the trigger and strength of the rebound still depend on improvements in the overall sector sentiment or validation from specific catalysts (such as buybacks or delivery data). Li Auto's closing price on the previous day (27th) was 69.700. The discussion focus is on whether the company will start a buyback below 70 yuan, whether the stock price can stabilize around 70 yuan in the long term, and whether this year’s new models can bring growth potential. Market sentiment is leaning towards观望 (wait-and-see), with supporters...
This indicates that the ideal weak consolidation is occurring in an environment where there is sector divergence, but the leading stock (BYD) and its own technical ratings remain positive. The 'buy' signal diverges somewhat from the weaker stock price, which typically suggests that a technical rebound has underlying support. However, the trigger and strength of the rebound still depend on the overall improvement in the sector's sentiment or the validation of specific catalysts (such as buybacks or delivery data).
Li Auto's closing price on the previous day (the 27th) was 69.700. Comments are focused on whether the company will begin buybacks below 70 yuan, whether the stock price can stabilize around 70 yuan in the long term, and whether this year’s new models can bring growth potential. Market sentiment leans towards观望 (wait-and-see), with supporters believing that buybacks and the new car cycle still hold promise, though some investors find the trend dull and even worry about further significant downward pressure.
Key points from the discussions mainly revolve around three issues:
First, whether below 70 yuan constitutes a company buyback or a zone for capital acceptance;
Second, whether Li Auto is significantly lagging behind other tech and electric vehicle stocks;
Third, whether this year’s product growth can drive the stock price again.
Some comments mentioned that while the technology sector is rising, Li Auto's performance remains weak, reflecting dissatisfaction with its short-term relative strength.
Technically, Li Auto's closing price on the previous day was 69.700, below the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend remains weak. Although the stock price is still above the lower Bollinger Band at 67.910, offering some conditions for a technical rebound, it is difficult to confirm a turnaround until it breaks back above 71.565 to 71.965. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 31.875, showing weak short-term momentum, close to a low level but without clear signs of a rebound.
The short-term key is whether 67.910 can hold steady. If it holds and breaks back above 71.565 to 71.965, there may be a chance to retest 75.220; if 67.910 is breached, support near 67.774 or even 63.450 should be watched. At this stage, conditions for a rebound are not entirely absent, but it is still within a weak consolidation. Buyback news can only improve sentiment; true strengthening still depends on the stock price climbing back above the pivotal level.
Reply to some investors' views:
@广峰老师 It's below 70 now, buybacks could happen, and stabilizing long-term around 70 isn't impossible.
There is anticipation of buying support around 70 yuan, but technically, improvement requires a move back above 71.565.
@westgateThe share repurchase occurred when the price was below 70 yuan.
Prices below 70 yuan indeed sparked discussions about a potential repurchase, but the trend remains weak.
@小鹰刚展翅 Repurchased
Repurchases can help stabilize sentiment but may not immediately alter technical trends.
Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:
Key levels: 67.910 acts as short-term support; holding above this level suggests a weak rebound. Breaking through 71.565 to 71.965 is necessary for an improved trend, while breaking below would extend the weaker range.
Strategy One | Rebound after stabilizing above 67.910
$UBLIAUT@EC2609A.C (24865.HK)$ | Strike Price 75.93 | Actual Leverage 4.3x | About 8.9% out-of-the-money, close to current price, suitable for capturing a short-term rebound after stabilization
$MSLIAUT@EC2610A.C (27494.HK)$ | Strike Price 80.44 | Actual Leverage 4.6x | Mid-range out-of-the-money, suitable for extending rebounds
$CILIAUT@EC2606A.C (22652.HK)$ | Strike Price 88.88 | Actual Leverage 8.5x | About 27.5% out-of-the-money, highly elastic positioning, ideal for amplifying returns in the early stages of a rebound
Strategy Two | Following the uptrend after breaking through 71.565 to 71.965
$UBLIAUT@EC2609A.C (24865.HK)$ | Strike Price 75.93 | Actual Leverage 4.3x | First tool for following the trend after a breakout, with higher sensitivity
$HSLIAUT@EC2609A.C (24755.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 75.93｜Actual Leverage 4.3x｜Stable structure, suitable for holding after a breakout towards the upper range
$SGLIAUT@EC2610A.C (27552.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 80.49｜Actual Leverage 4.4x｜Balanced leverage and distance, suitable for continuing upward momentum post-breakout
Strategy Three｜After breaking below 67.910, deploy on weakness
$CILIAUT@EP2609A.P (24225.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 59.88｜Actual Leverage 3.7x｜Approximately 14.1% out-of-the-money, suitable for capturing early pullback after breakdown
$BILIAUT@EP2610A.P (24263.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 57.80｜Actual Leverage 2.5x｜Mid-range out-of-the-money, suitable for deploying in extended downtrend
$UBLIAUT@EP2610A.P (25549.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 57.57｜Actual Leverage 2.9x｜Relatively stable structure, suitable for expecting deeper correction and reducing volatility exposure
For more market analysis, stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'Hong Kong Stock Warrants'!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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