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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a post · Apr 28 09:57

Tencent is approaching the 475 support level; a short-term rebound needs to first recapture 499

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The current price is 477.2, showing obvious short-term pressure as the stock price is below the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, reflecting that the weakness has not yet reversed. The current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band at 475.176, which technically allows for a rebound, but unless it can rise back above 498.040 to 499.190, any rally will only be a weak bounce within a downtrend, and it's too early to confirm a turnaround.
Sentiment in comments is clearly bearish, with many investors focused on whether support at 476 to 475 will hold, while some are looking lower toward 460, 430, or even 400. Some investors believe Tencent's decline has been deep enough to start considering buying the dip or adding positions, but overall market confidence remains weak. Discussions about going short, stopping losses, shaking out positions, and halting buybacks are more common, reflecting retail investors' concern over another leg down if key support levels break.
Common questions focus on three points: First, will 476 to 475 hold? Second, if it breaks, could it test 460, 430, or even 400? Third, is the current price suitable for buying the dip, or should one wait for confirmation of a rebound before deploying capital?
Technically, 475.176 is the most critical short-term support level at this stage. If it holds firm and a rebound occurs, the next step is to first break above 498.040 to 499.190, providing an opportunity to retest 503.240. Conversely, breaking below 475.176 would indicate lack of support even near the lower Bollinger Band, potentially leading to further downside testing toward 469. At this point, the risk-reward ratio is neutral to low; the focus isn't guessing the bottom but whether 475 can hold.
Key levels: 475.176 acts as short-term support; holding above this level suggests a technical rebound. A breakout above 498.040 to 499.190 would confirm strengthening, while a breakdown indicates continued weakness.
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The current price is 477.2, showing obvious short-term pressure as the stock price is below the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, reflecting that the weakness has not yet reversed. The current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band at 475.176, which technically allows for a rebound, but unless it can rise back above 498.040 to 499.190, any rally will only be a weak bounce within a downtrend, and it's too early to confirm a turnaround. Sentiment in comments is clearly bearish, with many investors focused on whether support at 476 to 475 will hold, while some are looking lower toward 460, 430, or even 400. Some investors believe Tencent's decline has been deep enough to start considering buying the dip or adding positions, but overall market confidence remains weak. Discussions about going short, stopping losses, shaking out positions, and halting buybacks are more common, reflecting retail investors' concern over another leg down if key support levels break. Common questions focus on three points: First, will 476 to 475 hold? Second, if it breaks, could it test 460, 430, or even 400? Third, is the current price suitable for buying the dip, or should one wait for confirmation of a rebound before deploying capital? Technically, 475.176 is the most critical short-term support level at this stage. If it holds firm and a rebound occurs, the next step is to first break above 498.040 to 499.190, providing an opportunity to retest 503.240. Conversely, breaking below 475.176 would indicate lack of support even near the lower Bollinger Band, potentially leading to further downside testing toward 469. At this point, the risk-reward ratio is neutral to low; the focus isn't guessing the bottom but whether 475 can hold...
For call warrants, consider $BITENCT@EC2606B.C (16242.HK)$ , with a strike price of 500.5 yuan and leverage of approximately 12.8 times. This product offers the lowest premium and implied volatility in the market, making it suitable for investors optimistic about Tencent's future performance who wish to deploy at a lower cost. Another option is $SGTENCT@EC2606B.C (16136.HK)$ , also with a strike price of 500.5 yuan and leverage of about 12.8 times. This warrant has the lowest implied volatility while providing relatively higher leverage, making it suitable for investors willing to take on slightly more risk to capture potential upside.
For put warrants, $UBTENCT@EP2608A.P (26333.HK)$ with a strike price of 466.46 yuan and leverage of about 8.3 times. Its implied volatility is relatively low, making it suitable for investors bearish on Tencent’s short-term performance and looking to hedge risk. $BITENCT@EP2608A.P (26075.HK)$ , with the same strike price of 466.46 yuan and leverage of around 8.5 times, also features low implied volatility, offering investors another defensive option.
For bull contracts, $UB#TENCTRC2609Q.C (69923.HK)$ with a recovery price of 445 yuan and leverage of approximately 12.3 times. Its premium is relatively low, making it suitable for investors bullish on Tencent who want to track with lower premiums. Another $UB#TENCTRC2607U.C (58837.HK)$ with a recovery price of 440 yuan and leverage of around 11 times, also benefits from a lower premium, making it suitable for aggressive investors deploying for short-term optimism.
As for bear certificates, $UB#TENCTRP2812V.P (63400.HK)$ The recovery price is 540 yuan, with a leverage of about 8.8 times. This product has the lowest premium among similar products and offers relatively higher actual leverage, making it suitable for investors who are bearish on Tencent's future performance and wish to capture declines efficiently. $JP#TENCTRP2810G.P (61813.HK)$ The recovery price is 548 yuan, with a leverage of approximately 7.5 times. It offers the highest actual leverage in the market while maintaining a relatively low premium, making it suitable for investors with a high risk tolerance and a bearish outlook on the future market.
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The current price is 477.2, showing obvious short-term pressure as the stock price is below the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, reflecting that the weakness has not yet reversed. The current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band at 475.176, which technically allows for a rebound, but unless it can rise back above 498.040 to 499.190, any rally will only be a weak bounce within a downtrend, and it's too early to confirm a turnaround. Sentiment in comments is clearly bearish, with many investors focused on whether support at 476 to 475 will hold, while some are looking lower toward 460, 430, or even 400. Some investors believe Tencent's decline has been deep enough to start considering buying the dip or adding positions, but overall market confidence remains weak. Discussions about going short, stopping losses, shaking out positions, and halting buybacks are more common, reflecting retail investors' concern over another leg down if key support levels break. Common questions focus on three points: First, will 476 to 475 hold? Second, if it breaks, could it test 460, 430, or even 400? Third, is the current price suitable for buying the dip, or should one wait for confirmation of a rebound before deploying capital? Technically, 475.176 is the most critical short-term support level at this stage. If it holds firm and a rebound occurs, the next step is to first break above 498.040 to 499.190, providing an opportunity to retest 503.240. Conversely, breaking below 475.176 would indicate lack of support even near the lower Bollinger Band, potentially leading to further downside testing toward 469. At this point, the risk-reward ratio is neutral to low; the focus isn't guessing the bottom but whether 475 can hold...
Reply to some investors
@JMH1The short-term trend is still within a weak range. Until it climbs back above 499.190, the short position remains dominant.
@HONGKONG97 The initial purchase was near the support level, but the reward-to-risk ratio is neutral to slightly low. It would be prudent to use 475.176 as the risk threshold.
@粉絲粉 Don't buy. Before confirming stability above 475.176, it’s not advisable to rush into buying.
@Momo lai In April last year at this bottom, and again this April at this level, it feels like waking from a spring dream only to find oneself back at the starting point. The current price is close to key support, and failure to hold it would weaken the mid-term structure.
@Grant_Cao It really is disappointing. Until it climbs back above 499.190, the short-term trend will remain weak.
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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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