Wall Street Brief (April 28): US stock benchmarks hit new highs on Monday, led by tech heavyweights, with further internal divergence; the US-Iran stalemate weighed on market risk appetite, oil prices strengthened, and cryptocurrencies retreated

Summary: US stocks showed slight divergence on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.12%, Nasdaq up 0.20%, Dow Jones down 0.13%, and Russell 2000 up 0.04%. Indices remained volatile at high levels, with tech heavyweights continuing to support the market while traditional heavyweights appeared weaker. The VIX fell to 18.02, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous trading day, indicating marginal recovery in risk sentiment but not returning to ultra-low volatility levels. The most important pricing factor of the day was still the deadlock over Hormuz negotiations, with oil risk premium yet to fully dissipate; tech assets continued to attract incremental capital, making indices look stable but with ongoing internal divergence. In terms of sectors, financials were relatively strong, while consumer staples were weak. In major asset classes, the US Dollar Index fell 0.02%, gold dropped 0.58%, crude oil rose 1.90%, and Bitcoin declined 1.60%.

I. Major Events

1. Iran proposes conditions for reopening Hormuz

Iran released a conditional proposal, stating 'Hormuz can be reopened if the blockade is lifted and the conflict ends,' which provided some relief to the market. However, the US publicly insisted that the nuclear issue remain an inseparable part of any agreement, showing no real progress on key constraints. This means the market perceives a 'temporary easing of tail risks' rather than 'conflict constraints being resolved.' This is why oil risk premiums remain, also causing risk assets to maintain structural strength rather than full expansion.

2. OpenAI and Microsoft revise cooperation terms

According to Reuters, Microsoft no longer holds exclusive rights to OpenAI's technology, allowing OpenAI to open its capabilities to more cloud platforms, shifting the cooperation model from a single binding relationship to a more open distribution structure. This change is not just a tweak in contract details but a rewrite of platform relationships within the AI supply chain: bargaining power over cloud, computing, and application distribution could all be redistributed. For the market, this represents an independent industry event rather than a summary of market dynamics, with subsequent impacts primarily reflected in the valuation divergence of leading companies.

II. Major Trends

From a medium-term structural perspective, the technology style remains the strongest main theme. QQQ rose 7.59% in two weeks and 5.38% in three months, significantly outpacing DIA’s three-month increase of 0.75%, indicating that capital has not left the growth direction. Meanwhile, MAGS surged 8.61% in two weeks but only increased by 0.80% in three months, reflecting that short-term recovery is faster than the consolidation of medium-term trends, with the market's reliance on catalysts rising.

At the breadth level, it remains a state of 'strong indices, weak diffusion.' SPY gained 4.24% in two weeks, while RSP only climbed 1.49%, indicating that the current rally is still primarily driven by heavyweight stocks rather than an equal-weighted broad-based rise. This structure usually implies index resilience persists, but once heavyweight stocks collectively retreat, volatility at the index level will significantly amplify.

Based on the intraday market, funds have not fully shifted to defensive positions nor completely returned to risk expansion, but are dynamically balancing between 'continuing to hold the technology main theme' and 'hedging oil price inflation constraints.' In the short term, the market is more likely to maintain structural rotation within high-level fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend.

III. Market Sentiment

Sentiment indicators show that market risk appetite remains positive, but caution has not disappeared. VIX closed at 18.02, down 3.69% for the day, indicating that protective demand decreased compared to the previous day; CNN Fear & Greed Index rose to 67 (from 66), in an optimistic range, but no uncontrollable surge in sentiment occurred. The options market continues to present a 'coexistence of bullishness and hedging,' with investors participating in the tech main theme while retaining defensive positions against geopolitical and oil price disruptions.

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs

The internal performance of index ETFs shows little divergence, but there are still directional biases. IWM led with a 0.18% gain, while DIA lagged with a 0.08% decline, suggesting the market hasn’t formed a 'traditional blue-chip unified leadership' diffusion pattern but maintains narrow-range rotation.

2. Sector Performance

In terms of sectors, XLF rose 0.76% to lead, while XLP fell 1.07% to trail. Funds are showing clear rebalancing between financials and consumer staples, reflecting dual pricing for 'growth resilience' and 'cost pressures.'

3. Seven tech giants

Among the seven major tech stocks, NVDA led with a 4.00% increase, while AAPL trailed with a 1.27% decline. High-growth AI chains continue to attract incremental funds, while traditional heavyweights face relative valuation and position reallocation pressure on the same trading day.

4. Chinese Equities

Chinese stocks showed significant divergence internally, with NTES relatively resilient with a 0.71% increase, while BABA dropped 2.43% and BILI also declined 2.43% under pressure. Amidst heightened geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties, funds are adopting stronger selectivity toward Chinese stocks rather than overall allocation.

5. Cryptocurrencies

Crypto-related assets experienced risk unwinding. Bitcoin fell 1.60%, CRCL dropped 4.23%, and PLTR remained flat (+0.01%). High-volatility assets are more susceptible to position rebalancing during market highs, increasing short-term elasticity.

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$ $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $CME-Bitcoin RR Futures (MAY6) (BTCmain.US)$ $iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$

401K Views