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The US-Iran peace talks present conflicting narratives! What’s next for oil prices?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Apr 28 09:08

CNOOC is approaching the high of 28.52 yuan, and before reaching 29 yuan, we need to see if it can break through the first hurdle.

$CNOOC (00883.HK)$
On the previous day (the 27th), the stock closed at 28.440 for the day. The discussion focus was on whether it could rise to 29 yuan, break through the 52-week high, and how earnings and dividend payout timing would impact the share price. Market sentiment was clearly optimistic, with many investors directly targeting 29 yuan, while some believed the stock price could further 'surge.'
$CNOOC (00883.HK)$ On the previous day (the 27th), the stock closed at 28.440 for the entire day. Comments focused on whether it could rise to 29 yuan, whether it could break through the 52-week high, and the impact of earnings and dividend timing on the share price. Market sentiment was clearly optimistic, with many investors directly targeting 29 yuan, while some believed that the share price had the potential to further 'soar'. Looking at the 'three oil giants' sector, the market performance was mixed on the previous day (the 27th), with CNOOC up by 1.94%, $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$ up by 1.15%, $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ and up by 0.65%. However, technical signals reveal potential risks: despite the rise in share price, PetroChina’s technical signal clearly indicated a 'sell,' with multiple indicators showing overbought conditions and a top divergence, indicating the highest pullback pressure. In contrast, both CNOOC and Sinopec have neutral technical signals, but CNOOC has risen above all major moving averages, making its upward trend more pronounced. This indicates that CNOOC’s strong upward movement occurred in an environment where there was differentiation within the sector, and its peer leader (PetroChina) had already accumulated significant sell signals. Whether it can break through 28.52 yuan and further test 29 yuan will not only depend on maintaining its own momentum but also requires caution regarding possible spillover pressures from technical consolidation across the sector. The focus of comments reflected three directions: First, whether 28.520 can be broken through; Second, is 29 yuan the short-term target; Third, can the high dividend and earnings factors continue to support...
From the perspective of the 'Big Three Oil' sector, market performance was mixed on the previous day (the 27th), with CNOOC rising 1.94%, $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$ up 1.15%, $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ and up 0.65%. However, technical signals reveal potential risks: despite the rise in stock prices, PetroChina's technical signals clearly indicate a 'sell,' with multiple indicators suggesting overbought conditions and top divergences, implying the greatest downward pressure.
In contrast, both CNOOC and Sinopec have neutral technical signals, but CNOOC has moved above all major moving averages, showing stronger momentum.
$CNOOC (00883.HK)$ On the previous day (the 27th), the stock closed at 28.440 for the entire day. Comments focused on whether it could rise to 29 yuan, whether it could break through the 52-week high, and the impact of earnings and dividend timing on the share price. Market sentiment was clearly optimistic, with many investors directly targeting 29 yuan, while some believed that the share price had the potential to further 'soar'. Looking at the 'three oil giants' sector, the market performance was mixed on the previous day (the 27th), with CNOOC up by 1.94%, $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$ up by 1.15%, $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ and up by 0.65%. However, technical signals reveal potential risks: despite the rise in share price, PetroChina’s technical signal clearly indicated a 'sell,' with multiple indicators showing overbought conditions and a top divergence, indicating the highest pullback pressure. In contrast, both CNOOC and Sinopec have neutral technical signals, but CNOOC has risen above all major moving averages, making its upward trend more pronounced. This indicates that CNOOC’s strong upward movement occurred in an environment where there was differentiation within the sector, and its peer leader (PetroChina) had already accumulated significant sell signals. Whether it can break through 28.52 yuan and further test 29 yuan will not only depend on maintaining its own momentum but also requires caution regarding possible spillover pressures from technical consolidation across the sector. The focus of comments reflected three directions: First, whether 28.520 can be broken through; Second, is 29 yuan the short-term target; Third, can the high dividend and earnings factors continue to support...
This indicates that CNOOC’s strong upward momentum is occurring in an environment where the sector is seeing divergence, and leading peers like PetroChina have already accumulated significant sell signals. Whether it can break through 28.52 yuan and further test 29 yuan will depend not only on maintaining its own momentum but also being cautious of possible spillover pressure from sector-wide technical corrections.
The key points of discussion reflect three main directions:
First, can 28.520 be broken through;
Second, is 29 yuan the short-term target;
Third, whether high dividends and earnings factors can continue to support the share price.
Overall, investors have relatively strong confidence in CNOOC, and concerns about the drop in oil prices are not very evident. Instead, they focus more on whether the uptrend can be sustained.
Technically, CNOOC’s current price is higher than several key moving averages, indicating a stronger short-term trend. However, the current price is close to the previous high of 28.520 and the upper Bollinger Band at 29.188, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising to 74.877, reflecting that upward momentum remains but has become overheated in the short term, making the risk-reward ratio for entering now less favorable.
The short-term key level is 28.520. If it can break through and stabilize above this level, the stock price may have room to challenge 29.188. If it fails to break through, it is more likely to consolidate around the highs first. Below, 27.270 is the watershed; as long as it holds steady, the strong structure remains intact. If it breaks below, then watch for a retest of the support zone between 26.997 and 26.600.
Reply to some investors' views:
@青云盈创 History has once again proven Buffett's foresight in stock investments, showing the wisdom of following the Oracle of Omaha.
The trend is indeed strong, but the current price is near the resistance zone, so short-term consolidation at the highs should not be overlooked.
@17782375 Is there a chance to reach 29?
There is a chance, but it must first break through 28.520 before aiming for near 29.188.
@特級濃香花生油 29
The first hurdle before 29 yuan is 28.520, and only a successful breakout would pave the way for testing higher levels.
Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:
Key levels: 27.270 acts as a watershed. Holding above it maintains strong consolidation, breaking through 28.520 may test 29.188, while a breakdown could retest 26.997 to 26.600.
Strategy One | Rebound setup after holding above 27.270
$UBCNOOC@EC2607A.C (22559.HK)$ | Strike price 28.90 | Actual leverage 8.7x | Close to current price on the upside, fastest reaction, suitable for short-term rebound capture after stabilization
$UBCNOOC@EC2609B.C (26708.HK)$ | Strike price 29.88 | Actual leverage 7.0x | Slightly farther, suitable for upward continuation after consolidation at higher levels
$UBCNOOC@EC2611B.C (26707.HK)$ | Strike price 31.88 | Actual leverage 6.2x | More balanced allocation, suitable for holding during extended rebounds
Strategy Two | Momentum pursuit after breaking through 28.520
$UBCNOOC@EC2607A.C (22559.HK)$ | Strike price 28.90 | Actual leverage 8.7x | High sensitivity momentum play after breakout, suitable for capturing the first leg of the rally
$CTCNOOC@EC2609B.C (28276.HK)$ | Strike price 29.86 | Actual leverage 7.1x | Close to next resistance level, suitable for following the trend after breakout
$UBCNOOC@EC2609A.C (26542.HK)$ | Strike price 33.90 | Actual leverage 7.5x | Higher elasticity allocation, suitable for capturing acceleration phase after breakout
Strategy Three | Weakening deployment after losing 27.270
$UBCNOOC@EP2609A.P (26838.HK)$ | Strike Price 24.86 | Actual Leverage 6.9x | Approximately 12.6% Out-of-the-Money, Suitable for Capturing Initial Drop After Breakdown
$HSCNOOC@EP2609A.P (27191.HK)$ | Strike Price 24.86 | Actual Leverage 7.5x | Higher leverage, suitable for amplifying declines after confirming weakness
$HUCNOOC@EP2609A.P (26724.HK)$ | Strike Price 22.50 | Actual Leverage 8.3x | Further Out-of-the-Money, Suitable for Anticipating a Deeper Correction
For more market analysis, stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'Hong Kong Stock Warrants'!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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