Weekly Call Episode 12 Live Broadcast Recap | Intel Surges 20% in Powerful Rebound: How to Seize the Opportunity of CPU Value Reassessment?

Keynote Speaker: Joe Yu | Futu Institutional and Private Wealth Team

Weekly Market Insights

1 Macro Review and Market Outlook 00:00:54 ~ 00:07:40

China’s fiscal revenue for the first quarter increased by 6.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue up by 9.1%. The Renminbi has short-term appreciation potential.

US stocks lean bullish — driven by improved geopolitical expectations, stable high interest rates, and robust earnings reports.

Hong Kong stocks are volatile but leaning positive — April sees the smallest scale of share lock-up for the year, with the lowest supply-side pressure.

2 Recent Selection of High-Quality Stocks 00:07:41 ~ 00:10:30

① $Vertiv Holdings (VRT.US)$ (Data Center Power and Thermal Management): Non-linear demand explosion, Rubin chip power density increased fourfold compared to Blackwell Ultra, Feedback architecture power expected to reach 1000kW (seven times the current level)

② $MUYUAN (02714.HK)$ Livestock breeding industry experiencing a second bottoming-out, Muyuan Shares demonstrates strong cost control capabilities, with the cycle bottom potentially established by April 2026.

Intel Special Topic Sharing

1 CPU Demand Side: Surge in Demand During the Agent Era 00:11:55 ~ 00:15:54

GPU/CPU ratio: from training phase (1:2) → inference phase (1:3~4) → Agent era (higher CPU demand)

IDC forecasts Agent numbers to grow from 28 million in 2025 to 2.2 billion in 2030 (CAGR approximately 140%).

2 CPU Supply Side: Triple Constraints Lead to Structural Shortages 00:15:56 ~ 00:19:00

Insufficient advanced process and advanced packaging resources

Server CPU production capacity has been largely sold out

③Intel has a temporary capacity gap

Core logic why Intel outperforms AMD:AMD, as a fabless company, relies on Taiwan Semiconductor, and the benefits of price increases are offset by foundry costs; in contrast, Intel’s in-house production lines directly translate into gross margin expansion. $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$$Intel (INTC.US)$

3 Major expectation gaps for Intel 00:19:07 ~ 00:28:00

①Gross margin exceeded expectations, leading to significant market revisions on profitability estimates;

②Strong server CPU performance with high AI business revenue contribution;

③Once external customers begin mass adoption of 18A/14A, there is potential for the stock price to reach $100.

4 Summary: Intel investment framework 00:28:11 ~ 00:29:20

①Near-term (priced through Q2): Increase in volume and pricing of server CPUs → DCAI revenue beats expectations + gross margin recovery

②Medium-term (Q3 2026): Successful mass production of 18A, benefiting both internal CPU operations and external foundry services

③ Forward (Options): External clients from 18A/14A sectors have landed, contract manufacturing turned from loss to profit, opening up a share price upside potential of over a hundred dollars.

Q&A session

Q: Similarities and differences between CPU supply-demand imbalance and the DRAM super cycle? 00:30:00 ~ 00:33:30

A:The similarities lie in 'shortage + non-linear demand growth', but there are three key differences:

① DRAM is highly standardized with prices moving up and down together, whileCPUs are highly differentiated logic chips that won't experience shortages across all categories.；

② CPU suppliers have some capacity redistribution capabilities; Intel can shift PC production to servers;

③ Rising DRAM prices are suppressing PC shipments, with global PC shipment forecasts revised down by more than 10%, offsetting part of the 'ripple effect'.

$Samsung Electronics (005930.KR)$$SK Hynix (000660.KR)$$CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07709.HK)$$Micron Technology (MU.US)$

Q:$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$Despite having self-developed ARM architecture CPUs, why is there still a deep reliance on Intel? 00:33:50 ~ 00:36:45

A:AI clusters require powerful CPUs for workload scheduling and high-bandwidth interconnection. The irreplaceability of the x86 architecture lies in:Strong scheduling capabilities for complex agents, high migration costs for existing software ecosystems, and architectural advantages at the code execution level.

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