Alibaba's rebound has not broken through, and 133.400 becomes the short-term key level

The market for$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Opinions remain divided, but the short-term sentiment has slightly improved compared to before. Some investors believe that the stock price will not fall further, indicating that support at lower levels still exists, while others are expecting a re-challenge near 133 to 135. However, there are also many voices suggesting that upward momentum is weak and the rebound lacks strength, with concerns over another weakening or even breaking below the bottom.

Overall sentiment remains neutral with a wait-and-see attitude. The bullish side mainly focuses on 'bottom found,' 'support present,' and 'potential for another rise.' The bearish side concentrates on 'lack of strength,' 'reaching resistance at small gains,' and 'possible further decline in the future.' Common questions primarily revolve around whether it can break back above 133.400, whether 135 is achievable, and if it falls again, whether 127.280 can hold.

Technically, Alibaba’s current price of 132.100 is higher than the 10-day line at 131.550, the 20-day line at 127.280, and the 30-day line at 128.260, reflecting a short-term recovery in trend compared to before. However, the current price is still below the 5-day line at 133.400 and the 60-day line at 140.247, indicating overhead resistance remains, and for now, it can only be viewed as consolidation after a rebound; it cannot yet be considered a formal strengthening.

The short-term key lies at 133.400. If the stock price can rise back above 133.400, there may be an opportunity to challenge 138.977 next. If it fails to break through, the stock price may continue to fluctuate between 127.280 and 133.400. 127.280 is currently the watershed; if it breaks down, the trend will weaken again, and deeper correction risks need attention.

Key deployment: Holding above 127.280 yuan can maintain a rebound consolidation; breaking above 133.400 yuan may test 138.977 yuan; if it fails to hold 127.280 yuan, the short-term trend may weaken again.

Strategy One | Follow-up after stabilizing above 127.280 yuan

$UBALIBA@EC2607E.C (26541.HK)$ | Strike price 137.09 yuan | Actual leverage 8.1x | Close to the first upside rebound target, suitable for short-term rebound continuation after holding the support level.

$HSALIBA@EC2607C.C (26739.HK)$ | Strike price 137.09 yuan | Actual leverage 8.4x | Higher sensitivity, suitable for strengthening rebound momentum once the stock price stabilizes.

$CIALIBA@EC2607A.C (26695.HK)$ | Strike price 137.08 yuan | Actual leverage 8.1x | Strike price near resistance zone, suitable for shorter-term follow-up before a breakout occurs.

Strategy Two | Chase momentum after breaking above 133.400 yuan

$UBALIBA@EC2609E.C (27406.HK)$ | Strike price 150.98 yuan | Actual leverage 6.3x | Suitable for testing higher resistance after a breakout, with more momentum-focused than Strategy One.

$MSALIBA@EC2609C.C (27419.HK)$ | Strike price 150.98 yuan | Actual leverage 6.3x | Suitable for follow-up after confirming a breakout, better suited for expecting an extended rebound rather than intraday trading.

$BPALIBA@EC2609D.C (26845.HK)$ | Strike price 150.88 yuan | Actual leverage 6.2x | Lower strike price, suitable as a balanced choice for chasing momentum after a breakout.

Strategy Three | Weakening after failing to hold 127.280 yuan

$UBALIBA@EP2607C.P (26011.HK)$ ｜Strike price 127.28 yuan｜Actual leverage 5.6x｜Close to the breakdown point, suitable for capturing short-term weakness after crossing the threshold

$UBALIBA@EP2607A.P (20367.HK)$ ｜Strike price 130.00 yuan｜Actual leverage 6.2x｜Higher sensitivity, suitable for use when confirming an accelerated downtrend $HUALIBA@EP2607A.P (24432.HK)$ ｜Strike price 127.28 yuan｜Actual leverage 5.8x｜Close to the support level, suitable for betting on a continued pullback after a breakdown

Reply to some investors' views:

@做多中国中Bullish direction requires technical breakout; 133.400 is the short-term key level.

@Miss YvonneIf it can break through 133.400, 135 becomes possible; before then, volatility will remain.

@MrSoExternal factors will influence market sentiment, but Alibaba’s short-term movement remains within the range of 127.280 to 133.400.

@铁扇牛魔王After a rapid rise, volatility is likely; at this stage, it's not advisable to focus solely on daily gains or losses—watch whether resistance can be broken.

@鱼豆豆Significant volatility without heavy volume suggests selling pressure may not be fully expanding; 127.280 remains the critical defensive line.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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