DeepSeek permanently cuts prices! Will domestic semiconductor stocks keep rising?
Tencent nears key support, weakness persists; the 500 level becomes pivotal for a trend reversal
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Market sentiment towards Tencent has clearly weakened, shifting from earlier rebound expectations to skepticism and impatience. Many investors are beginning to question the 'King of Stocks' status, believing that upward momentum is weak and every rebound unsustainable, resulting in trapped positions with no recovery to positive territory. Meanwhile, some voices suggest that the stock has fallen enough and may have room for a rebound, but overall confidence is clearly lacking.
Overall sentiment remains subdued. The bearish side focuses on views like 'distribution,' 'lack of upward momentum,' and 'failed rebounds'; the bullish side is more scattered, mostly short-term rebound expectations or medium- to long-term targets, without forming a consensus. Common concerns focus on two points: whether it can reclaim the 500 level, and if it continues to retreat, whether downside support can hold.
Technically, Tencent's current price of 486 is below the 5-day line at 506.820, the 10-day line at 504.380, and the 20-day line at 500.535, indicating a weakening short-term trend. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 500.535, with the current price below the middle band. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37.199, reflecting weak momentum. In the short term, the stock remains in a pullback phase.
The short-term key is at 500.535. If the stock price can rise back above 500.535, there may be an opportunity to test 504.380 to 506.820, and potentially reverse the short-term weakness; but if it fails to regain that level, the rebound potential will be limited. Below, 478.340 serves as critical support, and if breached, it will likely test further down to 475.000, making the weak trend even more pronounced.April 24 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Tencent,
![$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Market sentiment towards Tencent has clearly weakened, shifting from earlier rebound expectations to skepticism and impatience. Many investors are beginning to question the 'King of Stocks' status, believing that upward momentum is weak and every rebound unsustainable, resulting in trapped positions with no recovery to positive territory. Meanwhile, some voices suggest that the stock has fallen enough and may have room for a rebound, but overall confidence is clearly lacking. Overall sentiment remains subdued. The bearish side focuses on views like 'distribution,' 'lack of upward momentum,' and 'failed rebounds'; the bullish side is more scattered, mostly short-term rebound expectations or medium- to long-term targets, without forming a consensus. Common concerns focus on two points: whether it can reclaim the 500 level, and if it continues to retreat, whether downside support can hold. Technically, Tencent's current price of 486 is below the 5-day line at 506.820, the 10-day line at 504.380, and the 20-day line at 500.535, indicating a weakening short-term trend. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 500.535, with the current price below the middle band. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37.199, reflecting weak momentum. In the short term, the stock remains in a pullback phase. The short-term key is at 500.535. If the stock price can rise back above 500.535, there may be an opportunity to test 504.380 to 506.820, and potentially reverse the short-term weakness; but if it fails to regain that level, the rebound potential will be limited. Below, 478.340 serves as critical support, and if breached, it will likely test further down to 475.000, making the weak trend even more pronounced.[Share Link: April 24 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Tencent,] ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260427/web-1777257432328-KDAraoJuXm.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Key levels: A re-break above 500.535 yuan may provide an opportunity to test 504.380 yuan to 506.820 yuan; if it fails to hold above 478.340 yuan, a short-term downside target could be 475.000 yuan.
For call warrants, consider paying attention to $BITENCT@EC2609E.C (28036.HK)$ , with a strike price of 580.5 yuan, it has the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, making it suitable for investors optimistic about Tencent's future performance who wish to deploy at a lower cost. Another option is $UBTENCT@EC2609E.C (27994.HK)$ , also with a strike price of 580.5 yuan, its relatively low implied volatility reduces the impact of fluctuations on pricing, offering more direct price tracking performance.
For put warrants, $JPTENCT@EP2608B.P (27020.HK)$ , with a strike price of 428.68 yuan and relatively low implied volatility, it suits investors bearish on Tencent and seeking hedging or downside positioning. $UBTENCT@EP2608B.P (26702.HK)$ , also with a strike price of 428.68 yuan, it similarly benefits from having lower implied volatility, providing a robust shorting choice amid market volatility.
Bull certificate recommendations include $UB#TENCTRC26074.C (58807.HK)$ , with a stop-loss level at 465 yuan and relatively high leverage, making it suitable for aggressive investors optimistic about Tencent's outlook. Another option is $UB#TENCTRC2608O.C (66465.HK)$ , with a stop-loss level at 460 yuan, also offering higher leverage, making it ideal for capturing Tencent’s rebound with a potential for higher returns.
As for bear certificates, $UB#TENCTRP2812U.P (62053.HK)$ , with a stop-loss level at 530 yuan, high actual leverage, and low premium, it suits investors bearish on the market outlook who want to efficiently execute short positions. $BI#TENCTRP2812E.P (56465.HK)$ The recovery price is 532 yuan, with relatively high leverage, offering another high-leverage option for investors who are bearish on Tencent.
![$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Market sentiment towards Tencent has clearly weakened, shifting from earlier rebound expectations to skepticism and impatience. Many investors are beginning to question the 'King of Stocks' status, believing that upward momentum is weak and every rebound unsustainable, resulting in trapped positions with no recovery to positive territory. Meanwhile, some voices suggest that the stock has fallen enough and may have room for a rebound, but overall confidence is clearly lacking. Overall sentiment remains subdued. The bearish side focuses on views like 'distribution,' 'lack of upward momentum,' and 'failed rebounds'; the bullish side is more scattered, mostly short-term rebound expectations or medium- to long-term targets, without forming a consensus. Common concerns focus on two points: whether it can reclaim the 500 level, and if it continues to retreat, whether downside support can hold. Technically, Tencent's current price of 486 is below the 5-day line at 506.820, the 10-day line at 504.380, and the 20-day line at 500.535, indicating a weakening short-term trend. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 500.535, with the current price below the middle band. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37.199, reflecting weak momentum. In the short term, the stock remains in a pullback phase. The short-term key is at 500.535. If the stock price can rise back above 500.535, there may be an opportunity to test 504.380 to 506.820, and potentially reverse the short-term weakness; but if it fails to regain that level, the rebound potential will be limited. Below, 478.340 serves as critical support, and if breached, it will likely test further down to 475.000, making the weak trend even more pronounced.[Share Link: April 24 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Tencent,] ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260427/web-1777257408775-z91HBoucbx.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Reply to some investors' views:
@毛菇的小粉圓A short-term rebound may occur, but unless it breaks through the 500 mark, it remains a weak rebound.
@巴巴完蛋了The selling pressure mainly stems from the failure to retest the key resistance level.
@抓时机做波段The difficulty in turning positive reflects insufficient short-term momentum.
@RPTAWhether to unload or not hinges on the support level; once it breaks below 478.340, risks will increase.
@死生有命富貴在天Long-term targets and short-term trends may not align; currently, the market remains in a weak consolidation phase.
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This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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