Wall Street Brief (April 25): US stocks rebounded on Friday, risk sentiment continued to recover as Intel's earnings report ignited mega tech and semiconductors; capital still favors tech growth stocks while market breadth has yet to catch up

Summary: US stocks rebounded on Friday with fluctuations. The S&P 500 rose 0.80%, Nasdaq increased by 1.63%, Dow Jones fell 0.16%, and Russell 2000 gained 0.43%. Nasdaq led the rally while Dow lagged behind. Capital flowed back into large-cap tech stocks, but the rally hasn’t spread comprehensively. VIX dropped to 18.71, declining by 3.11% from the previous day, showing that risk sentiment continued to improve but did not fully ease. Market trading revolved around two main themes: one was Intel’s better-than-expected earnings report and guidance, which reignited the semiconductor sector; the other was the ongoing risks in the Strait of Hormuz and a drop in US consumer confidence. On the market, funds still leaned towards tech and high-quality growth stocks, with gains mainly driven by large caps while market breadth failed to keep pace. In major asset classes, the US Dollar Index fell 0.33%, gold rose 0.31%, crude oil dropped 2.19%, and Bitcoin declined 1.15%.

I. Major Events

1. Intel's earnings report and outlook exceeded expectations, semiconductors take off again

Intel released its Q1 earnings report with revenue at $13.58 billion and earnings per share at $0.29, both higher than market expectations. The company also provided a Q2 revenue forecast above Wall Street estimates. Management emphasized that demand for server CPUs and data center chips targeting AI workloads remains strong. As AI computing expansion continues, order expectations for the semiconductor supply chain are rising again. For the day’s trading, this earnings report directly brought market attention back to semiconductors and AI themes, keeping tech-heavy stocks more aggressive during the rebound.

2. Middle East risks continue to escalate, energy supply disruptions persist

Trump ordered US forces on Thursday to 'shoot and kill' Iranian small boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and stated that mine-clearing operations would continue to escalate. On the same day, the US military also seized an oil tanker linked to Iranian oil smuggling. Trump also announced a three-week extension of the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel but did not lift the blockade or restore stable passage through the Strait of Hormuz. For the market, the key takeaway from this new information is not the 'extension of the ceasefire' itself, but rather that the risks to navigation in the strait are accumulating, and the tail risks of energy supply disruptions have not dissipated.

3. US consumer confidence in April fell to its lowest level in nearly four years.

Data from the University of Michigan shows that the US consumer confidence index in April dropped to 49.8, the lowest point in nearly four years; consumers' inflation expectations for the next year continue to rise. Meanwhile, households’ concerns about high oil prices and the spillover risks of war have not significantly eased. This means that the sensitivity of consumers to 'high prices + uncertainty' is increasing, and such sentiment often leaves traces in subsequent data and corporate guidance.

II. Major Trends

Technology and growth remain the main themes in the medium term. QQQ rose 8.64% over two weeks and 6.74% over three months, significantly outperforming DIA's two-week rise of 2.88% and three-month rise of 0.64%, with capital pricing still favoring technology and high-quality growth. Meanwhile, MAGS rose 8.88% over two weeks but only 1.45% over three months, indicating that short-term rebounds can be quick, but over a longer period, the recovery pace is uneven, and the market is more selective about catalysts.

Blue-chip stocks remain the backbone of index performance. SPY rose 5.07% over two weeks, while RSP rose only 2.74%, showing that this round of gains was mainly driven by large-cap stocks, without broad-based support. Combined with Friday's market action, it appears that funds are making structural shifts at higher levels: continuing to bet on key themes but not rushing to expand positions too widely.

In terms of style, risk appetite has not retreated, but the market’s requirements for valuation and cash flow are becoming more stringent. Geopolitical disturbances continue to bring uncertainty. Investors are maintaining their allocation to the tech theme while also seeking steadier cash-flow assets as a buffer. There is still upward momentum in the short term, but the path of ascent is no longer as smooth as in previous days.

III. Market Sentiment

Sentiment continues to recover, but there is still some distance from being 'completely reassured.' The VIX closed at 18.71, down 3.11% from the previous day, with protective demand somewhat easing; the CNN Fear & Greed Index was 66, slightly lower than 67 the previous day, still in the relatively optimistic range, but enthusiasm did not further increase. In options trading, the Cboe total Put/Call ratio was 0.75, the index Put/Call ratio was 1.04, and the stock Put/Call ratio was 0.65: risk appetite remains at the individual stock level, but hedging positions are still retained at the index level, suggesting that the market is 'continuing to go long but unwilling to completely let down its guard.'

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs

Among index ETFs, QQQ performed the strongest with a 1.91% rise, while DIA lagged behind with a 0.16% decline. Friday's rebound seemed more like a recovery in growth style, with funds returning primarily to tech-heavyweights rather than driving a broad-based rally.

2. Sector Performance

In sector performance, XLK led with a 2.81% rise, while XLC fell 1.58% and XLV declined 1.41%, showing relative weakness. Technology once again dominated the market, while communications and healthcare lagged, resulting in an inconsistent internal structure despite the index’s recovery.

3. Seven tech giants

The seven major tech stocks continued to diverge, but the overall trend remained strong. NVIDIA led with a 4.32% rise, followed by Meta with a 2.41% increase and Microsoft with a 2.13% gain, while Apple lagged with a 0.87% decline. Capital showed a preference for AI-related heavyweights and high-earnings-elasticity targets, and trading was not a simple synchronized advance of all seven giants.

4. Chinese Equities

Chinese concept stocks performed steadily overall, but gains were more structural. Baidu led with a 5.91% rise, Futu followed with a 3.70% gain, Alibaba rose 3.13%, and PDD Holdings increased by 0.27%, lagging behind. The market’s valuation of Chinese stocks appeared more like individual stock selection rather than simply following emotional fluctuations.

5. Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrency assets did not uniformly reflect an increase in risk appetite, with continued divergence within the sector. Bitcoin fell by 1.15%, RIOT rose by 2.20%, and MARA dropped by 1.36%. Amidst faster position shifts, the direction of high-volatility assets tends to fluctuate more easily, making it difficult for related stocks to maintain a synchronized rise or fall.

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$ $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $CME-Bitcoin RR Futures (MAY6) (BTCmain.US)$ $iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$

731K Views