The CPU giant is on a wild ride, is it still possible to position now?

Option Mover The Moo

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Blade Options Recap | Explosive earnings propel Intel's after-hours surge by 20%! How will today ignite the 'options miracle'?

Happy Friday, fellow investors! It's time for another weekly review of 'Playing with Options.'

In last week's review,We discussed a big story brewing: CPUs taking the baton from memory chips.

We mentioned that capital is rotating within the AI supply chain; after memory chips have surged, the next focus could be CPUs. We specifically highlighted Intel because it has several catalysts in play. Interested fellow investors can revisit that discussion.

Just yesterday, this story reached its most exciting chapter.$Intel (INTC.US)$A blockbuster earnings report was released after the market closed, and the stock price soared more than 20% overnight!This not only perfectly validates our observations from last week, but also shows us the incredible power that options can unleash when the right market narrative meets a major event.

This week’s recap will focus on one thing: the 'options miracle' about to be triggered by Intel's earnings today, and how we should rationally view this kind of magic.

A Night of Celebration: Why Did Intel’s Earnings Ignite the Market?

After the US market closed on April 23, Intel delivered a report card that surprised everyone.

In short, all key metrics far exceeded market expectations: revenue was higher than expected, and profits were particularly impressive. The core highlight was that Intel's management clearly communicated to everyone: the massive demand brought by the AI wave is making CPUs (central processing units) highly sought after once again.。

In the past, people thought AI was mainly about GPUs (graphics processing units). But now, as AI enters the application and reasoning phase, handling massive amounts of real-time data has highlighted the importance of CPUs. The 22% surge in Intel's data center AI business revenue is the best proof of this.

The market voted with real money. As soon as the earnings report came out, Intel’s stock price shot up from over $66 at the close to above $80.If you had listened to the 'CPU relay' story last week and paid attention to Intel, your feeling at this moment would undoubtedly be excitement.

In last week’s recap, we explicitly wrote:

“Intel’s rise this week was driven by multiple catalysts... This rally follows the logic of sector rotation — after memory stocks surged last week, capital naturally looked for the next underpriced link in the AI supply chain, and Intel happened to be perfectly positioned to benefit.”

At the time, we made this judgment based on the logic of industry rotation, and Intel's earnings report this week is the most powerful and timely validation of this logic.The wave of AI has spread from training (which requires massive storage and GPUs) to inference and application (which requires powerful and efficient CPUs), with capital flowing accordingly. Anticipating this trend and staying focused allows one to better seize the opportunity when it arises.

Option Magic: What happens to an 'end-of-days option' if the market closes up 20% today?

A 20% surge in stock price is already astonishing in itself. But for options traders, the real show is just beginning. The allure of options lies in their ability to amplify stock price movements several-fold, or even dozens of times, in contract prices.

Let’s walk through a simple and easy-to-understand scenario; please temporarily set aside all complex terminology:

Hypothetical Scenario:

Yesterday (April 23rd), Intel's closing price was66.78 USD;

After-hours trading saw it rise to around80 US dollars, with an increase of approximately20%；

Assuming today (April 24) market sentiment is high and the stock price closes at 80 US dollars.(For now, we won't consider the scenario with an even higher increase; in fact, it has already risen more than 20% in pre-market trading today).

Let's now take a look at this options contract: INTC 260424 74.00C.

This is a call option (Call) for Intel (INTC) with a strike price of 74 US dollars, expiring today (April 24, 2026).Its closing price yesterday was 1 US dollar, so buying one contract would cost exactly 'a hundred bucks'.

(The design images displayed on the screen are for demonstration purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice or guarantee; market conditions fluctuate frequently, and the option prices shown do not represent real situations. The selection criteria are options with initial prices around 1-5 US dollars per unit.)

If Intel’s stock price stabilizes around 80 US dollars at the close today, the value of this option at expiration will be roughly equal to the difference.: 6 US dollars.(Stock price 80 - Strike price 74).

Compared to its closing price of 1.00 US dollars before yesterday's earnings report, this implies a potential intraday gain of up to 500%!If compared to its opening price of 0.73 US dollars yesterday morning, then the increase would be even more astonishing.

It's the non-linear amplification effect brought by options leverage, which is also its fascinating 'magic'. It makes it possible to use a small amount of capital for potentially large returns.

How to simulate different scenarios? Try the Futubull Options Calculator

Looking at the above simulation, you might think: This sounds tempting, but how do I know which contract to choose? And how to estimate the approximate returns? Surely, it can't all be guesswork?

Exactly, intuition and luck are unreliable in investing. For fellow investors just starting with options, it’s recommended to explore and utilize a powerful tool:The Options Calculator within the Futubull App。

This tool is like your 'options sandbox' and helps you do two very important things:

Take an 'X-ray' of existing contracts: You can select any contract from the options chain (for example, Intel's call option expiring next month), and the calculator will combine factors such as the current stock price and time left until expiration to help you estimate a relatively reasonable theoretical price. This allows you to judge whether the market quote is overpriced or underpriced.

Run 'scenario simulations': This is the more practical feature! You can set up scenarios yourself, just as we did earlier: assume Intel's stock price is $80, the strike price is $67, and there's one day left until expiration... Then let the calculator tell you the approximate value of this 'virtual' option.

Through this simulation, you can get a general idea of the potential profits and losses under different scenarios before actually placing an order. It cannot guarantee that you will make money, but it can help you avoid some overly blind and impulsive decisions.

The risks behind the magic must be clearly understood.

While showcasing the astonishing gains of options, I must use more space and a more serious tone to reveal the other side of the coin: extreme high risk.。

Options, especially contracts like the 'expiring today' ones in our example, are often jokingly referred to as 'doomsday lottery tickets' within the industry.Its 'magic' completely relies on the stock price making a significant move in your anticipated direction within an extremely short time frame.

Zeroing-out risk: If Intel's stock price does not rise today, or even if it rises only slightly (for example, only up to $67.5), then this option may still become worthless at closing. Your $1.5 investment will be entirely lost.This is the most common outcome faced by option buyers.。

Time is your enemy: For short-term options, time passes particularly quickly. With each passing hour, its 'lottery value' rapidly diminishes. If the stock price remains unchanged, you are slowly losing money.

Volatility is a double-edged sword.: High volatility can lead to sharp rises, but also steep falls. If the stock price reverses significantly, the speed of loss can be equally astonishing. For instance, after today’s expiration, a large number of put options may likely become worthless.

Remember, the market always rewards cautious risk-takers, not reckless gamblers.

This week, Intel delivered an epic earnings report, providing the most compelling footnote to the narrative of 'AI renaissance in CPUs.' It underscores how important it is to maintain a forward-looking industry perspective amid rapidly evolving technological trends.

Options, as a powerful financial tool, have demonstrated their ability to amplify trends during such events. However, for most investors, the real 'magic' isn't about the fantasy of getting rich overnight. First, it means we must skillfully use tools (like options calculators) to simulate scenarios and make decisions based on data rather than emotion. Second, it requires us to keep learning, starting from understanding the simplest long call and gradually deciphering the patterns of market volatility and the core logic of options.Throughout it all, the highest respect for risk must remain constant—before calculating potential gains, always consider how much loss you can bear.

In the long race of AI-driven industrial rotation, the story continues. I hope that while respecting the market, we can all use tools more intelligently and face volatility with greater composure. Wishing everyone successful investments, see you again next week for a review!

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Risk WarningAn option is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price at any time on or before a specific date. The price of an option is influenced by various factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, the time to expiration, and implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of the option’s volatility over a certain period in the future. It is derived inversely from the Black-Scholes (BS) pricing model and is generally considered an indicator of market sentiment. When investors expect greater volatility, they may be more willing to pay higher prices for options to help hedge risks, leading to higher implied volatility. Traders and investors use implied volatility to evaluate.Option priceattractiveness, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.

DisclaimerThis content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or guarantee of any securities, financial products, or tools. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In some cases, losses may exceed the initial margin deposited. Even if you set contingent orders such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, these may not prevent losses. Market conditions may make such orders unexecutable. You may be required to deposit additional margin within a short period. If you fail to provide the required amount within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. However, you will still be responsible for any shortfall in your account. Therefore, before trading, you should study and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and the rights and obligations upon exercise and expiration. Options trading carries extremely high risks and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully readCharacteristics and Risks of Standardized Options。

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