After Tencent fell below 500, its short-term trend weakened but is approaching a key support zone

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ After retreating from near 523 yuan, today's low dropped to 487 yuan. Currently trading at 492 yuan, it has broken below the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages and fallen below the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at 501.565, reflecting that the short-term trend has weakened again. Although there hasn't been an overall sharp decline yet, the market is starting to turn cautious or even bearish as rebounds fail to stabilize at higher levels. The sentiment in the comment section clearly reflects this: some investors are starting to accumulate in tranches, believing valuations are now attractive; others, however, expect further testing down to 480 yuan or lower, showing limited confidence in a short-term rebound.

Overall market sentiment shows clear divergence but leans conservative. Some investors have started focusing on valuation and long-term fundamentals, including profit structure, growth potential, share buybacks, and dividends, believing that the current price is gradually becoming attractive for accumulation. However, short-term traders are more concerned about the weakening trend, weak rebounds, and whether there will be further downside exploration. Common questions mainly focus on three areas: first, whether 495 yuan can hold; second, whether prices above 500 yuan can regain stability; third, whether the current stage is suitable for phased accumulation or if one should wait for even lower levels.

From a technical perspective, 495.200 is the most critical short-term inflection point. If it holds steady, there is still a chance for a technical rebound. Breaking back above 500.000 and 501.565 would create conditions to test 507.956. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 38.617, indicating weak short-term momentum, and the current price being below the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands reflects continued selling pressure above. Therefore, the risk-reward ratio at this stage is only moderately low. If 495.200 fails to hold, the anticipated 480-yuan range may become the next test level, with 478.884 being a more crucial support. In other words, the current phase is 'approaching support but not yet strengthening,' so deployment should prioritize confirmation rather than entering based solely on valuation thinking.

Key Deployment: 495.200 serves as the short-term inflection point. If it holds, anticipate a technical rebound. If it breaks back above 500.000 and 501.565, there is potential to retest 507.956. If 495.200 fails, watch for a drop towards 478.884.

Strategy One | Hold 495.200 to Anticipate Rebound

$UBTENCT@EC2606A.C (14490.HK)$ | Strike Price 500.5 | Actual Leverage 11.1x | Close to current price, responds quickly to the initial rebound phase, suitable for immediate deployment after holding the watershed

$HSTENCT@EC2607A.C (14148.HK)$ | Strike Price 500 | Actual Leverage 11.3x | Similarly close to the price, but easier to manage in terms of time value and entry timing; suitable for those wanting to place small bets to test a rebound

$UBTENCT@EC2706A.C (27993.HK)$ | Strike Price 500.5 | Actual Leverage 4.2x | Longer maturity, less volatile, suitable for steady rebound positioning

Strategy Two | Break through 500.000 and 501.565 to chase momentum

$UBTENCT@EC2606B.C (15953.HK)$ | Strike Price 530.5 | Actual Leverage 13.3x | Higher flexibility after breakout, suitable for short-term momentum chasing with focus on capturing acceleration phase

$DSTENCT@EC2606A.C (16185.HK)$ | Strike Price 530.5 | Actual Leverage 13.3x | A fast-attack type tool, suitable for following the trend after confirming strength $CITENCT@EC2606B.C (16040.HK)$ | Strike Price 530.5 | Actual Leverage 13.3x | An aggressive deployment within the same range, suitable for expecting continuation of upward momentum after a breakout

Strategy Three | If 495.200 is breached, reverse to look bearish

$UBTENCT@EP2606A.P (21984.HK)$ | Strike Price 499.8 | Actual Leverage 8.7x | Close to the current price, can reflect downside faster after breaching the watershed, suitable for initial weakening phase deployment

$HSTENCT@EP2612A.P (14186.HK)$ | Strike Price 481.81 | Actual Leverage 4.8x | More practical when targeting support at 478.884, suitable for expecting pullback but not necessarily a sharp decline

$UBTENCT@EP2608A.P (26333.HK)$｜Strike Price 466.46｜Actual Leverage 8.4x｜More aggressive, suitable for use when expecting further decline after a breakdown

Reply to some investors' views:

@232759840495.200 is the short-term watershed; if it fails to hold at the close, the trend will weaken further, with attention needed on the downside at 478.884.

@爆升Market sentiment remains not fully stable; short-term rebounds often fizzle out due to selling pressure, so the trend will be more volatile.

@7054613From a fundamental perspective, the valuation isn't high, but the stock price is still dominated by technical factors in the short term. Until it regains above 500, the market will remain cautiously观望 (wait-and-see).

@多彩的无花果Buybacks provide support to the stock price, but the short-term trend still depends on whether 495.200 can hold and if it reclaims above 500.

@温柔的修Short-term momentum is indeed weak, but whether it takes half a year still depends on whether the current support zone holds and how market sentiment evolves.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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