Pop Mart drops another 155 dollars; before the short-term weakness reverses, first see if it can hold steady or not.

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Previously plummeting from a high of 274.200, it later dipped to 140.100. Recently, although there has been a rebound, the stock faced renewed pressure near the 160-dollar mark. Currently trading at 154.800, it has broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages and is nearing the 20-day line, reflecting that the short-term trend remains weak, and for now, still reflects a consolidation pattern after a low bounce. Market chatter clearly demonstrates the kind of atmosphere common in highly volatile stocks: some are hoping consumer stocks will regain investor attention, even looking forward to a rebound driven by improved earnings or sentiment; on the other hand, there are also many voices worried about breaking below 150 dollars, testing 130 dollars, or even lower, indicating unstable confidence in future prospects.

Overall market sentiment leans towards caution and negativity. Some investors are no longer simply discussing short-term ups and downs but are beginning to focus on fundamental growth rates, earnings expectations, shareholder reductions, increased short selling, and whether strict stop-loss measures should be adhered to for such high-volatility stocks. Many comments also mention considering deployment only if the price falls to 150 dollars, between 145 to 155 dollars, or near 130 dollars, indicating that the market still has reservations about the current value-for-money ratio. Common questions mainly revolve around three aspects: first, whether the rebound has already ended; second, whether the level around 150 dollars will hold; and third, whether May’s earnings report could act as a catalyst for stopping the stock's decline and even reversing its strength.

From a technical perspective, 154.400 is currently the most important short-term threshold. As long as the price holds above it, the stock can still be viewed as consolidating after bouncing from a low point. If the market can break through 159.800 again in the future, there may be an opportunity to test 166.340 in the short term. However, the relative strength index is only at 39.494, showing that short-term momentum remains weak, and the current price is slightly below the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at 158.130, indicating that the trend has not truly turned strong. Therefore, the risk-reward ratio at this stage is only moderately low. If 154.400 fails to hold, concerns about the 150-dollar level will quickly rise, and afterward, 140.100 will become a more critical support level. In other words, while the situation hasn't reached a panic sell-off yet, there are also no clear signs of regaining strength, so deployment should still prioritize waiting for confirmation rather than making emotional purchases.

Key Deployment Focus: 154.400 serves as a short-term threshold. If it holds, it can initially be seen as consolidating after a low bounce. If it breaks through 159.800, there may be further upside potential to 166.340; if it fails to hold 154.400, caution is needed regarding a retest of 140.100.April 23rd [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - CNOOC, Pop Mart, CCB

Strategy One | Holding above 154.400 to bet on a rebound

$UBPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27929.HK)$ | Strike Price 180.1 | Actual Leverage 1.8x | Longer duration, less immediate time decay pressure; suitable for those who want to wait for the stock price to stabilize before gradually building positions

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike Price 186.88 | Actual Leverage 4.2x | Higher flexibility compared to longer-term products; suitable for expecting a rebound from key support extending to challenge resistance levels

$GJPOMRT@EC2610B.C (27787.HK)$ | Strike Price 193 | Actual Leverage 4.7x | More aggressive, suitable for small bets on an expanding rebound; the focus is capturing the acceleration phase when strength returns

Strategy Two | Breakout above 159.800 to capitalize on momentum

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike Price 186.88 | Actual Leverage 4.2x | Can be used as the first tool to capitalize on momentum after a breakout; balanced risk and reward without being overly aggressive

$HUPOMRT@EC2609B.C (28008.HK)$ | Strike Price 190.02 | Actual Leverage 5.2x | Higher flexibility after confirmation of the breakout; suitable for short-term trading in the direction of the trend; focus is on betting for the upward momentum to expand

$UBPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27929.HK)$ | Strike Price 180.1 | Actual Leverage 1.8x | Suitable for implementing a breakout strategy while avoiding high time value fluctuations; longer-dated products like this are more appropriate for phased holding

Strategy Three | Short if 154.400 is breached

$CTPOMRT@EP2607A.P (25143.HK)$ | Strike Price 153.33 | Actual Leverage 3.6x | Close to current price; reacts directly after breaching the critical level, suitable for capturing the initial weakening phase

$UBPOMRT@EP2607A.P (22558.HK)$ | Strike Price 162.82 | Actual Leverage 3.6x | A practical bearish tool, with reasonable sensitivity; also suitable for expecting the stock price to gradually test support levels

$UBPOMRT@EP2612A.P (25120.HK)$ | Strike price 165.9 | Actual leverage 2.1x | Lower leverage, suitable for more conservative bearish strategies; if concerned about excessive volatility, this can serve as a more stable option.

Reply to some investors' views:

@17650325Pop Mart is currently very close to the short-term key level. If it breaks below 154.400, be prepared for the market to test the next support at 140.100.

@戰神007Technically, a sharp rebound is not entirely impossible, but the premise must be holding above 154.400 first, then breaking through 159.800 again. Otherwise, it remains merely weak consolidation.

@achk喜歡研究This stock is indeed highly volatile. From a technical perspective, the most important thing at this stage is still to hold above 154.400. For short-term strategies, risk management is more crucial than simply betting on a rebound.

@@汤姆克鲁斯If looking at a deeper correction, the 130-level is indeed one of the commonly mentioned target areas in the market. However, technically, we should focus on the two support levels: 154.400 and 140.100 for now.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met, and asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated in conjunction with other information. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

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