CNOOC is approaching short-term resistance, with funds flowing back before earnings; expectations for a rise to 30 yuan are heating up again.
Looking at the oil and gas energy sector, the market generally rose on the previous day (the 23rd). $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$ Up 4.23%, $CNOOC (00883.HK)$
However, technical risks have emerged simultaneously: despite the rise in stock prices, both CNOOC and PetroChina are showing 'sell' signals technically, with multiple oscillation indicators suggesting 'overbought conditions, sell signal,' indicating that short-term gains have been substantial, leading to increased profit-taking pressure.
In contrast, Sinopec's technical signal is 'buy,' with oscillation indicators pointing to 'oversold rebound,' reflecting a relatively stable technical structure. This suggests that CNOOC’s strong upward movement occurs in an environment where the sector as a whole is robust but the leading stocks (CNOOC and PetroChina) have entered a technically overbought state. Investors’ anticipated 'RMB 30 expectation' and earnings-driven rally must first digest their own and peers’ short-term overbought pressures; otherwise, it is easy to encounter profit-taking pressure at key resistance levels.
CNOOC’s recent performance has shown noticeable improvement compared to before, with comments reflecting a shift in market sentiment from earlier stagnation to growing anticipation for earnings and renewed attempts to test new highs. Some investors have started betting on a potential squeeze around the earnings period, even setting RMB 30 as the next price target, while others believe the adjustment is nearing completion and are preparing for the second leg of the uptrend. Overall, market sentiment appears more positive than that of index stocks, though there is not yet unanimous optimism.
Nevertheless, amidst the optimism, caution persists. On one hand, some investors holding shares have begun considering whether they should reduce positions near resistance levels, while others worry that trading volumes and positioning at current levels do not appear particularly safe. On the other hand, some voices suggest that past gains in the stock price have not been sharp, and those who missed exiting at higher levels are still waiting for clearer direction. This reflects that while the market has confidence in CNOOC's fundamentals and earnings expectations, there remains divergence in the short term around RMB 27 to RMB 28.
The most common questions in the market focus on three areas:
First, whether earnings can push the stock price back up to RMB 29 or even RMB 30;
Second, with the current price approaching the resistance zone, whether holdings should be maintained;
Third, whether the current level is just a consolidation before moving higher or another round of pressure before a peak.
These questions actually revolve around the same core issue: whether the price of 27.74 yuan can be effectively broken through.
From a technical perspective, CNOOC's closing price yesterday was 27.66 yuan, which has moved back above the 5-day, 10-day, and 60-day moving averages, reflecting signs of short-term capital inflow. The overall structure is more stable than before. After rebounding from the low, the stock price has been gradually recovering and is now approaching the short-term resistance at 27.74 yuan. Once this resistance is broken, the trend may have further upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65, which is in the relatively strong zone, indicating that short-term momentum is improving. The middle axis of the Bollinger Bands is at 27.35 yuan, with the current price above the middle axis, also supporting that the trend has shifted from weak to stable.
However, the risk-reward ratio is only moderate, not because the trend is poor, but because the current price is close to the short-term resistance and is not an obvious low. If it fails to break through 27.74 yuan, the stock price may consolidate at high levels or even test support. At this stage, the critical watershed remains at 26.74 yuan; as long as this level holds, the overall uptrend structure can still be maintained.If it breaks through 27.74 yuan, the next target could be a test of 29.48 yuan.In other words, this phase looks more like the confirmation of the early stages of strengthening rather than a bargain-hunting area at lower prices.
Reply to some investors' views:
@dKOb If earnings support breaking through 27.74 yuan, there indeed could be a push towards 29 to 30 yuan.
@v風喵v CNOOC’s trend is relatively stable, but its short-term explosive power might not necessarily be stronger than other oil stocks. The focus at this stage remains whether it can break through 27.74 yuan.
@explorer820 If external news turns negative, short-term volatility will increase, but technically, as long as it doesn’t lose 26.74 yuan, the structure hasn’t weakened yet.
Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:
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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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