April 23rd [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - CNOOC, Pop Mart, CCB

1. CNOOC (00883.HK): Investors mentioned that next week they may take advantage of the earnings results to push the price up to HKD 30; however, some investors noted that call warrant products with a strike price of HKD 35.32 are not tracking the underlying price.

CNOOC's current price is HKD 27.66. The short-term trend continues to improve, and after rebounding from its lows, the stock price has gradually approached resistance near HKD 27.7. The overall structure remains strong.

From the daily chart perspective, the stock price is currently near the 5-day line at HKD 26.89, the 10-day line at HKD 26.71, the 20-day line at HKD 27.35, the 30-day line at HKD 27.93, and the 60-day line at HKD 26.41. After stabilizing above HKD 26 in the short term, the price has been advancing upwards, reflecting continued buying support. Previously, the stock fell back from a high of HKD 30.98 and consolidated in the range of HKD 25 to HKD 26. It is now re-approaching the upper resistance area, indicating that it is testing the ability to move higher.

The middle axis of the Bollinger Band is at HK$27.35, and the current price has returned above the middle axis, while the upper rail is at HK$29.48, indicating that if there is further upward momentum in the short term, the range between HK$29 and HK$29.5 will be the next significant resistance zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 65, reflecting that short-term momentum has strengthened somewhat, but also showing that the stock price is no longer at an extremely low level, and upward movement will gradually encounter resistance.

Some investors expect that next week’s earnings report could push the share price up to HK$30. From a technical perspective, the stock is indeed maintaining a relatively strong pattern at present. If it can stabilize above HK$27.66 and effectively break through the resistance zone between HK$29 and HK$29.48, there will be conditions for further advancement towards the HK$30 mark. Thus, HK$30 can be considered as the next aggressive target, but the premise remains breaking through the immediate resistance first.

Meanwhile, some investors have noted that call warrants with a strike price of HK$35.32 are not tracking the price well. From a trend perspective, although the underlying asset has stabilized, the current price is still significantly far from HK$35.32. These products are essentially out-of-the-money positions, and before there is clear strengthening in the underlying stock, their prices may not closely follow. The market focus at this stage will remain on whether the stock price can successfully break through the resistance zone between HK$29 and HK$29.48, which will then determine if there are conditions to challenge the HK$30 level. $BP#CNOOCRC2806E.C (54442.HK)$$BICNOOC@EC2607A.C (22522.HK)$$MBCNOOC@EC2606A.C (22470.HK)$$SG#CNOOCRC2812H.C (59828.HK)$

2. Pop Mart (09992.HK): Investors are asking if the rebound has come to an end? Is there support at HK$150? Some investors are deploying put warrants with a strike price of HK$138.78.

Pop Mart's current price is HK$155.60, and the momentum of the short-term rebound has visibly slowed down. The trend is more likely to shift from a rebound to consolidation. At this stage, it can be regarded as entering a tug-of-war phase after the rebound.

From the daily chart perspective, the stock price rebounded from the earlier low of HK$140.10, then rose to near HK$160. However, it has recently failed to make further upward breakthroughs and instead fluctuated between HK$155 and HK$160, indicating increasing overhead resistance. The current price is close to below the 5-day moving average at HK$160.04 and the 10-day moving average at HK$159.21, and is notably lower than the 20-day moving average above HK$158.13, reflecting that the short-term rebound momentum has weakened, and the overall weak trend has yet to reverse.

The middle axis of the Bollinger Band is at HK$158.13, and the current price has fallen back below the middle axis. The bottom of the channel is at HK$127.31, and the top of the channel is at HK$188.95, indicating that the current situation is still within the technical rebound range following a weak phase, without signs of regaining strength. The RSI is around 39, indicating weak short-term momentum and insufficient market support.

Regarding investors’ concerns about whether the rebound has ended, based on the current technical pattern, the answer is that the rebound has at least transitioned from a sharp rally phase to a consolidation phase. If the market fails to rise above HK$158 to HK$160, the rebound will struggle to expand further. As for whether there is support at HK$150, recent trends suggest that the area around HK$150 is indeed a short-term support level worth watching, as the price has hovered above this region multiple times. If it holds, the stock price may continue to consolidate sideways; however, if it breaks below HK$150, attention should be paid to the possibility of the stock retesting the previous lows between HK$145 and HK$140.10.

Some investors are also deploying put warrants with a strike price of HK$138.78. Technically speaking, such a strategy is based on the expectation that if the stock price breaks below the HK$150 support, it will further test the previous low. At this stage, the trend has not completely weakened, but the rebound momentum has indeed slowed. The key going forward remains whether the HK$150 support can hold firm. $BIPOMRT@EP2607A.P (23340.HK)$$JPPOMRT@EP2607A.P (23584.HK)$$HS#POMRTRP2811B.P (67676.HK)$$JP#POMRTRP2809C.P (68115.HK)$

3. China Construction Bank (00939.HK): Investors believe that any pullback represents a good buying opportunity, targeting a price of HK$10, and will continue holding bullish contracts with a stop-loss price of HK$8.

China Construction Bank's current price is 8.83 yuan, and the short-term trend remains strong. The stock price has continued to advance upwards along the short-term moving average recently. Although there has been slight profit-taking at higher levels, the overall uptrend has not yet been significantly disrupted.

From the daily chart perspective, the stock price gradually recovered from the previous low of 7.70 yuan and steadily rose to near 9 yuan, reflecting that buying support remains intact. The current price stands above the 5-day line at 8.82 yuan, the 10-day line at 8.65 yuan, the 20-day line at 8.46 yuan, the 30-day line at 8.30 yuan, and the 60-day line at 8.12 yuan, indicating that the mid-to-short term moving averages are still aligned positively, maintaining a relatively strong pattern. Even though the price has slightly pulled back today from the high of 9 yuan, it remains within a high consolidation range.

The middle line of the Bollinger Band is at 8.46 yuan, with the current price clearly above the middle line. The upper band is at 9.00 yuan, indicating that the stock price has risen close to the top of the short-term channel, and further upward movement will encounter more noticeable resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 67, showing momentum remains strong but also suggesting that the stock is no longer in the low-price zone, and the reward for chasing gains has narrowed compared to before.

Some investors believe that any pullback presents a good buying opportunity, targeting 10 yuan, while continuing to hold bullish warrants with a strike price of 8 yuan. From a technical perspective, the overall direction remains upward at this stage. As long as the stock price can hold above the 8.71-8.65 yuan area, the uptrend has not deteriorated, and there is still a chance to retest the 9-yuan level in the short term. If the market can stabilize above 9 yuan, the trend would have the potential to push towards higher levels. However, since the current price is close to the upper band of the Bollinger Band, even if the short-term outlook is positive, it is more likely to consolidate first before assessing whether it has the strength to rise further. Regarding the bullish warrants with a strike price of 8 yuan, they currently remain at a distance from the underlying stock, but if the stock price breaks below multiple short-term moving averages, volatility risk would increase significantly. $UB#CCB RP2706B.P (54333.HK)$$JP#CCB RP2806B.P (60664.HK)$$CI-CCB @EP2612A.P (25325.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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