Market Weekly Report | April 13, 2026 - April 19, 2026

I. Global Macro Overview

The main theme of last week's market was the phased easing of geopolitical risks and the landing of positive Q1 data from China, forming a resonance that pushed global risk appetite to recover, leading to an overall strengthening of equity assets. Among them, US tech stocks, Hong Kong tech stocks, and A-share growth styles showed the greatest elasticity.

In terms of asset performance,Nasdaq rose 6.84% for the week, S&P 500 gained 4.54%, KOSPI increased by 5.68%, Hang Seng Tech Index climbed 3.75%, and CSI 300 advanced 1.99%, while previously elevated by Middle East tensions,WTI crude oil dropped 12.16% for the week, concurrently reflectingthe yield on the 10-year US Treasury falling to 4.26%, down 5 basis points from April 10, indicating that the market trading logic has shifted back from 'war premium' to 'improved growth and liquidity expectations'.

On the macro level in China, in Q1 2026,GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from Q4 2025; industrial production increased by 5.7% year-on-year in March 2026; fixed asset investment grew by 1.7% year-on-year from January to March; retail sales rose 1.7% year-on-year in March, showing characteristics of 'stronger production than demand, better external demand than domestic demand, and total stability stronger than structural dynamics.' We believe that the current economic situation is not a full recovery but ratherA phased stabilization supported by policy: Industrial production and exports remained resilient, but consumer spending, the real estate sector, and credit expansion are still relatively weak.

At the Hong Kong stock level,The Hang Seng Index rose 1.03% for the week, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 3.75%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 2.20% for the week.In terms of sectors,Non-essential consumption, information technology, and healthcare increased by 4.36%, 2.15%, and 2.02%, respectively., andEssential consumption fell by 3.11%,indicating a shift of capital from previous defensive sectors back to high-elasticity assets. Meanwhile,Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of approximately HKD 257-258 billion in a single weekand a net inflow of about HKD 17 billion on April 17 alone, indicating that mainland investors' willingness to allocate to Hong Kong stocks has significantly rebounded after risk appetite recovery.

At the geopolitical level, the most significant change last week wasa temporary 10-day ceasefire agreed upon by Israel and Lebanon starting from April 16, during which Iran made a conciliatory statement,to all merchant shipsprompting the market to quickly revise down the war premium.

It is important to emphasize that the basis of this round of rebound remains more 'trading-oriented' rather than a 'unilateral improvement in fundamentals.' On one hand,the IMF has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%and raised its global inflation expectations, indicating that medium-term macro constraints have not been lifted. On the other hand,with the expiration date of the US-Iran ceasefire approaching, repeated negotiations, and risks related to the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved,although oil prices have fallen, it cannot yet be considered a permanent retreat of geopolitical risks.

II. Performance of Major Asset Classes

Equity markets rebounded across the board, with growth significantly outperforming value.In the US stock market,The Nasdaq surged 6.84%, notably higher than the S&P 500's 4.54% and the Dow's 3.19%.In Hong Kong stocks,The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3.75%, significantly outpacing the Hang Seng Index's 1.03%.In mainland China's A-share market,The ChiNext Index gained 6.65%, the STAR 50 Index climbed 4.31%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 4.02%, all surpassing the CSI 300's 1.99%.We believe the core driver of the market recovery is not upward revisions in earnings at the numerator level but rathercompression in risk premiums at the denominator level.。

The decline in oil prices has been the most critical cross-asset variable.WTI crude oil dropped from $95 per barrel to $84.00, marking a 12% weekly decline. The pullback in crude oil directly eased the pressure of inflation repricing and drove down US Treasury yields. Under this transmission mechanism, growth assets in the technology sector that were previously suppressed saw the largest recovery.

The US Treasury yield curve showed signs of marginal steepening.The 2-year US Treasury yield fell from 3.8% to 3.7%, while the 10-year yield decreased from 4.31% to 4.26%. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields widened from 50 basis points to 55 basis points. Short-term rates are more sensitive to policy expectations. We believe the probability of further rate hikes is decreasing, but long-term rates have not significantly declined, indicating that concerns over medium- to long-term inflation and term premiums remain unresolved.

III. Review of Hong Kong Stock Market

1. Index Performance: Recovery continues, but with clear internal style divergence

Last week, Hong Kong stocks continued their rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.03% to 26,160.3 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index climbing by 3.75% to 5,042.7 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 2.20%. From an index structure perspective, the market clearly favored technology and high-elasticity assets, while high-dividend and defensive sectors lagged behind.

Looking at it in more detail,the Hang Seng Tech Index led gains among major Hang Seng series indices., surpassing the Hang Seng CN50, Hang Seng LargeCap, and Hang Seng Composite Index, whilethe Hang Seng SmallCap and Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index performed relatively weakly. This indicates a shift in capital style from 'risk aversion + dividends' to 'growth + flexibility,' rather than a broad-based market rally.

2. Sector performance: Consumer discretionary, technology, and healthcare sectors led gains, with defensive sectors taking a backseat.

In terms of sector dynamics,non-essential consumption rose by 4.36%, the information technology sector increased by 2.15%, and the healthcare sector climbed by 2.02%, ranking as the top three gainers;essential consumption fell by 3.11%, and utilities dropped by approximately 1.8%, serving as the primary drags on performance. China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which has led to a recovery in market expectations for discretionary consumption. Additionally, Hong Kong-listed consumer stocks had previously seen significant adjustments, providing stronger potential for valuation recovery.Meanwhile,The strong rebound in the US AI sector, price hikes by domestic cloud providers, and intensive industry catalysts like world models have boosted risk appetite for leading Hong Kong tech stocks. Correspondingly, essential consumption and utilities retreated, indicating that the market is no longer willing to pay a higher premium for purely defensive cash flows.

The rebound in Hong Kong's tech stocks this time is not centered on a single theme, but ratherplatform internet + AI hardware/device chain + semiconductorsa multi-faceted bloom. Fundamentally, it reflects the re-expansion of overseas tech stock valuations combined with the relative low valuation of Chinese tech assets.

IV. Outlook for the future market

In the next 1-2 weeks, the market will enter a new window of博弈 (gameplay):short-term dynamics will be driven by geopolitical risks and risk appetite, while medium-term focus will return to macro validation and policy expectations. In the short term, equity markets, particularly Hong Kong stocks and technology growth sectors, still have room for惯性修复 (momentum-driven recovery).This is because: geopolitical risks are easing in the short term, crude oil prices are falling, creating space for denominator-end repair; China’s Q1 data confirms that 'the economy has not lost momentum,' reducing pessimistic market pricing on fundamentals; and the consensus is that the Fed will not raise rates in April, meaning external liquidity constraints have not worsened further.

However, looking at the medium term,the slope of continued one-sided rapid upward movement may slow down.Three constraints remain:repeated geopolitical risksIf US-Iran negotiations break down again after the ceasefire expires, both oil prices and risk aversion sentiment could see a second rebound.Downward revision of global growthThe IMF has clearly lowered its global growth forecast, meaning the external demand environment and medium-term outlook for risk assets remain challenging.

In terms of allocation, we believe the following key themes warrant attention:

First key theme: Technology growth, particularly in AI hardware, internet platforms, and semiconductor equipment chains.

Last week's market movements have already confirmed thatthe technology sector is the area with the greatest elasticity during the risk appetite recovery phase.If US Treasury yields continue to fall moderately and oil prices remain low, tech assets still have room for relative outperformance.

Second key theme: Discretionary consumption and certain pharmaceuticals.

Non-essential consumption and healthcare have significantly outperformed, indicating that funds are seeking structural directions based on 'economic stabilization + marginal policy improvement,' while selecting sub-sector leaders with both strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations within these sectors.

The third main theme: maintaining high-dividend and energy sectors as a hedge in the short term.

Although highly volatile sectors outperformed last week, if geopolitical tensions flare up again, the energy chain and high-dividend assets may still regain relative returns. Therefore, it is advisable to maintain a certain 'balance between offense and defense' rather than fully betting on a one-sided risk-on approach.

V. Risk Warning

First, an escalation of geopolitical conflicts. If the ceasefire cannot be renewed and US-Iran negotiations collapse, oil prices may rebound quickly, prompting the market to reprice inflation and safe-haven logic.

Second, global liquidity improvement falls short of expectations. If US consumption and inflation remain strong, Treasury yields may rise again, pressuring high-valuation growth assets.

Third, China's domestic demand recovery falls short of expectations. If high-frequency consumption, real estate sales, and credit expansion continue to underperform, the market's optimistic interpretation of 'a strong economic start' may be revised.

Disclaimer: This report is for internal communication purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Data cut-off time: All data refers to the year 2026, with 'last week' referring to April 13-April 19, 2026.

Data sources: Alpha Dispatch database, National Bureau of Statistics, US Department of the Treasury, IMF, ifind, Wind, and CMB International Asset Management (Hong Kong), retrieved on April 22, 2026

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