April 22 [HKEX Podcast] Part-2 - Wuxi Bio, Bilibili, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable

1. Wuxi Bio (02269.HK): Investors noted that the 5-day moving average is weighing heavily, wondering if 32 HKD is suitable for a rebound play. Some investors are eyeing put warrants at 26 HKD.

Wuxi Bio's short-term trend remains weak, currently trading at HKD 35.22. Although the stock is holding above the 20-day moving average at HKD 34.62 and the 30-day moving average at HKD 34.78, it continues to face pressure from the 5-day moving average at HKD 35.76, the 10-day moving average at HKD 35.97, and the 60-day moving average at HKD 36.69, suggesting limited rebound strength. The short-term outlook remains one of consolidation under pressure.

From the daily chart perspective, the stock previously retreated from a high of HKD 44 and briefly tested a low of HKD 30.94. Although there has been some stabilization recently, it has failed to sustainably move above HKD 35.76-35.97, indicating that resistance near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages remains significant. The current price of HKD 35.22 is close to the middle Bollinger Band at HKD 34.62, with the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 38.10 and the lower band at HKD 31.14. This suggests the stock is likely to remain range-bound for now, with no clear indication of regaining bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index is near 41, indicating a relatively weak level, reflecting that short-term momentum remains average without showing strong rebound signals. Therefore, investors mentioning '5-day moving average under heavy pressure' aligns with the current technical trend, as the share price still cannot effectively break through the short-term moving average resistance zone.

As for whether 32 yuan is suitable for a rebound bet, technically, 32 yuan is closer to the lower Bollinger Band at 31.14 yuan and also near the previous low of 30.94 yuan. If the stock price later retreats near 32 yuan without breaking down, the betting value will be higher than the current level. However, at the current price above 35 yuan, there is still some distance from 32 yuan, so it's not yet in the low rebound zone but rather looks more like an intermediate position after short-term pressure.

Some investors are eyeing put warrants at 26 yuan. From a technical perspective, 26 yuan is a distant bearish target since the current stock price is still around 35 yuan, with the nearest visible support at about 34.62 yuan, followed by the 31.14-30.94 yuan region. Unless the support area around 31 yuan is broken, expecting a rapid drop to 26 yuan doesn't seem strongly supported by the charts.

Overall, Wuxi Bio has yet to break out of its weak consolidation in the short term. Resistance levels to watch are 35.76 yuan, 35.97 yuan, then 36.69 yuan; support levels to watch are 34.62 yuan, then 31.14 yuan and 30.94 yuan. If it later falls near 32 yuan but holds steady, the rebound's betting value would improve compared to the current level; if the 31 yuan zone is breached, the trend will weaken further.

2. Bilibili (09926.HK): Investors mentioned exiting bear warrants too early, questioning whether more short selling is possible. Some investors are targeting 150 HKD with put warrants at a strike price of 149 HKD.

Bilibili’s short-term trend remains weak at 178.60 yuan. Although the stock rebounded from the recent low of 168.50 yuan, it failed to stabilize above the 10-day MA at 189.81 yuan or the 20-day MA at 185.53 yuan. Today, it dropped again, indicating significant selling pressure persists, maintaining a pattern of weakness following a minor rebound.

From the daily chart, after retreating from the high of 285.60 yuan, the overall downward structure remains intact, and the price is still below the 30-day MA at 190.86 yuan, the 120-day MA at 214.23 yuan, and the 250-day MA at 194.01 yuan, signaling a bearish bias in the medium-short term. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 185.53 yuan, the upper band at 199.84 yuan, and the lower band at 171.22 yuan. The current price of 178.60 yuan has fallen below the middle band, approaching the lower region, suggesting insufficient rebound strength and potential retesting of lows. The RSI near 30 indicates weakness and rising selling pressure.

For short-term key levels, immediate resistance is at 185.53 yuan, followed by the 189.81-190.86 yuan range; nearby support is at 171.22 yuan, then the previous low at 168.50 yuan. Breaking below 168.50 yuan could lead to further weakening.

Regarding investors who exited bear certificates too early asking if they can still add shorts, technically, the stock has indeed weakened again, remaining biased towards downside. However, the current price of 178.60 yuan is already near the lower Bollinger Band, and the RSI has retreated to near 30, meaning it’s no longer at the most favorable shorting level. Adding shorts now reduces betting value compared to before; a more reasonable observation point is whether the stock breaks below 171.22 yuan and 168.50 yuan, which would confirm further weakness.

Investors targeting 150 yuan with put warrants at a strike price of 149 yuan reflect a bearish outlook extending the medium-term downtrend. Technically, reaching 150 yuan isn’t impossible, but the stock must first break below the two support zones of 171.22 yuan and 168.50 yuan to increase chances of dropping further. Until those lows are broken, the current situation should be viewed as a pullback after a weak rebound rather than entering a new sharp decline phase.

Overall, Bilibili remains slightly bearish in the short term. Resistance levels to watch are 185.53 HKD and 189.81 HKD, with support at 171.22 HKD and 168.50 HKD. Unless it can reclaim the 185 HKD level, the weak trend remains unchanged; if it falls below 168.50 HKD, there may be further downside potential. $CT-BILI@EP2608A.P (26088.HK)$

3. Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869.HK): Investors asked how much upside potential remains if buying now. In the warrants market, some investors hold call warrants with a strike price of 399.9 HKD.

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable's short-term trend continues to show strong upward momentum. Currently trading at 247.20 yuan, the share price has steadily risen above multiple moving averages, reflecting a clearly bullish structure. However, the current price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 250.48 yuan and nearing recent highs, indicating that upward space in the short term is beginning to narrow.

From a technical perspective, after starting from the 80-yuan level, the stock price has consistently risen and is now firmly above key moving averages: the 10-day line at 219.28 yuan, the 20-day line at 201.06 yuan, the 30-day line at 185.91 yuan, and the 60-day line at 146.07 yuan, forming a complete upward trend. At the current price of 247.20 yuan, it is nearing the upper band at 250.48 yuan, and today’s high of 248.20 yuan indicates technical resistance around the 250-yuan mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 74, signaling overbought conditions, which reflects strong momentum but also increases the risk for those chasing the uptrend.

For short-term critical levels, initial support is seen at the 10-day line at 219.28 yuan, followed by the 20-day line at 201.06 yuan. On the upside, resistance is first seen at 250.48 yuan, and then we need to observe whether the stock can effectively break through and stabilize above the 250-yuan level. A successful breakout could extend the uptrend, otherwise, consolidation near the highs is more likely.

Regarding investor concerns about the remaining upside potential when buying now, technically, the main short-term upside is concentrated around 250 HKD, from the current price of 247 HKD to approximately 250 HKD, indicating relatively limited extension. Before breaking through 250 HKD, the risk-reward ratio has significantly decreased compared to previous lows; if it successfully breaks through and stabilizes above 250 HKD, the uptrend could continue. Otherwise, consolidation at higher levels is likely.

As for investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of 399.9 yuan, this represents an aggressive and deep out-of-the-money strategy. Based on the current technical outlook, the share price still has considerable distance to reach 399.9 yuan. Even if the uptrend remains intact, it would take multiple stages of upward movement to gradually approach that level. Therefore, short-term focus remains on whether the stock can first break through 250 yuan and extend its uptrend. Failure to do so would result in reduced sensitivity of related products to short-term movements, impacting their attractiveness.

Overall, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable remains strong in the short term but has entered an area close to resistance and overheating. Support is first seen at 219.28 HKD, with resistance at 250.48 HKD. Upside potential is relatively limited before a breakout; after a breakout, the uptrend could expand further. $HS-YOFC@EC2608A.C (26155.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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