April 22nd [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, AAC Technologies, Xiaomi,
1. Hang Seng Index: Bullish investors believe there will be a pull-up, with a rise of 200 points, holding bullish warrants with a recovery price at 25,800 points. On the other hand, bearish investors think that the market will close below 500 points and continue to hold large positions in bearish warrants, with a recovery price at 26,650 points.
The Hang Seng Index remains in a consolidation pattern after rebounding in the short term, currently at 26,188 points. Although it has stabilized above the 10-day moving average at 26,071 points, the 60-day line at 26,147 points, and the 120-day line at 26,124 points, resistance is still present from the 5-day line at 26,318 points and today's high near 26,303 points. This indicates that the index hasn't truly broken out yet, and there’s a greater chance of fluctuation between 26,100 and 26,300 points.
From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index rebounded from a low of 24,203 points and has gradually recovered recently, showing an improved short-term structure. The current level of 26,188 points is above several medium- and short-term moving averages, indicating increased support underneath. However, the middle Bollinger Band is at 25,557 points, and the upper band is at 26,785 points. At this stage, although the index is still above the middle band, it is still far from the upper band, suggesting that the rebound hasn’t developed into a strong upward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 is neutral and stable, showing improved momentum but not reaching a very strong level.
For short-term key levels, first look at the range between 26,071 and 26,124 points, corresponding to the area near the 10-day and 120-day moving averages. This represents the crucial short-term support zone. If this level holds, the index may have another chance to test 26,303 points. If it can stabilize above 26,300 points, conditions would be favorable for further upside expansion. Conversely, if it breaks below 26,071 points, short-term consolidation pressure will increase, and the trend could weaken again.
For bullish investors, they believe the index may rise another 200 points. Technically, this isn’t entirely impossible, but the prerequisite is that the Hang Seng Index must effectively break through 26,303 points; otherwise, the current situation remains one of consolidation after a rebound, not entering a clear acceleration phase. As for the strategy of holding bullish warrants with a recovery price at 25,800 points, the distance between the current price and the recovery price isn’t particularly wide. If the index falls back and breaks below the 26,000-point level, product risk will significantly increase. Therefore, it’s essential to pay attention to whether the 26,100-point level can hold.
As for the bearish investors who believe that the market will close below 500 points, from the current trend, although the index has not broken through 26,300 points, there are no obvious signs of weakness yet, especially since it is still above the 10-day, 60-day, and 120-day moving averages. Therefore, at this stage, there aren't strong conditions for a sharp single-day downturn. If you hold bear certificates with a recovery price of 26,650 points, because the recovery price is not far from the current level, as long as the Hang Seng Index suddenly surges and breaks through 26,300 points and moves further upward, the pressure on bear certificates will also rapidly increase. Hence, short-term bear positions should not be taken lightly.
Overall, the Hang Seng Index is currently closer to a consolidation pattern awaiting change. The short-term watershed can first be seen at 26,071 points, with upward resistance at 26,303 points. Before a breakout occurs, the market situation will remain volatile; if it breaks through 26,303 points, the rebound may extend further; if it falls below 26,071 points, beware of increased short-term profit-taking pressure. $BI-HSI @EC2609A.C (23798.HK)$$UB#HSI RC2810A.C (56741.HK)$$SG#HSI RC2809R.C (56364.HK)$$BI-HSI @EC2608A.C (26493.HK)$
2. AAC Technologies (02018.HK): Investors expressed waiting for a breakout above 40 yuan for continued upward movement, while some investors are also paying attention to call warrants with a strike price of 42.06 yuan.
AAC Technologies' short-term trend remains relatively strong, with the current price at 38.14 yuan. The stock has risen above multiple short- and medium-term moving averages and is further approaching the resistance zone between 39 yuan and 40 yuan, maintaining a strong post-rebound pattern. However, at this stage, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 77, indicating that although short-term momentum is strong, it has also entered an overheated zone. Hence, the 40-yuan level represents the most crucial breakthrough point currently.
From the trend perspective, AAC Technologies previously rebounded from a low of 31.20 yuan, gradually regaining support above the 10-day line at 37.24 yuan, the 20-day line at 35.74 yuan, the 30-day line at 34.86 yuan, and the 60-day line at 35.72 yuan, reflecting a noticeable improvement in its medium- to short-term structure. The current price of 38.14 yuan is also above the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at 35.74 yuan and near the upper band at 39.46 yuan, indicating that the uptrend continues. However, the stock has begun entering a resistance zone, so upward movement may not be as smooth as before.
Regarding key short-term levels, initial support can be seen around 38 yuan and the 10-day line at 37.24 yuan. If the stock can stabilize above 38 yuan and further break through 39.46 yuan, surpassing the 40-yuan threshold, there is potential for short-term upward momentum to push towards today’s high around 40.30 yuan, which would signal a clearer extension of the uptrend. Conversely, if unable to break through 40 yuan, one should expect the stock to consolidate within the range of 38 yuan to 40 yuan.
Investors expressing intentions to wait for a breakout above 40 yuan before expecting further upward movement align with the current technical trend because 40 yuan itself serves as both a psychological level and near recent highs. A successful breakout would make the trend more sustainable. However, until then, it is safer to view the current phase as consolidation at higher levels.
As for investors focusing on call warrants with an exercise price of 42.06 yuan, from a technical perspective, the related deployment assumes further upside extension after the stock price breaks out. However, since the current price of 38.14 yuan is still a distance away from 42.06 yuan, and the relative strength index is already overheated, such products will be significantly affected by whether the stock price successfully breaks through 40 yuan. If the underlying stock fails to break through and stabilize above 40 yuan, the short-term reward-to-risk ratio may not be particularly high. Conversely, if the stock subsequently breaks through 40 yuan and advances towards 40.30 yuan or higher, it would be more favorable for such aggressive deployments.
Overall, AAC Technologies remains relatively strong in the short term, with market focus clearly on whether it can break through 40 yuan. Initial support levels to watch are 38 yuan and 37.24 yuan, with resistance at 39.46 yuan and 40 yuan. A breakout would allow the trend to expand further.
Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK): Investors are asking if it’s still a good time to short the stock. Some investors are bearish, predicting a drop to HKD 23-24, holding put warrants with an exercise price of HKD 22.86.
Xiaomi Group remains in a weak consolidation pattern in the short term, currently trading at HKD 31.70. The stock has been hovering below several medium- and long-term moving averages, showing no significant improvement in overall structure. For now, it is still viewed as a pressured rebound with a weaker sideways trend.
In terms of its movement, after retreating from the high of HKD 37.50, the stock has consistently failed to reclaim the 10-day moving average at HKD 31.54 or the 20-day moving average at HKD 31.89, indicating persistent overhead resistance. The current price of HKD 31.70 is close to the convergence area of the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, while the middle Bollinger Band stands at HKD 31.89. The inability to stabilize above the middle band suggests limited upward momentum. Immediate resistance lies at HKD 31.89, followed by HKD 33.30 (upper Bollinger Band). Support levels are found at HKD 30.70 and HKD 30.26.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 50, a neutral level, reflecting that the market currently lacks clear direction and has yet to show a one-sided trend. In other words, this phase is not characterized by a sharp acceleration to the downside but rather represents weak sideways consolidation.
Regarding investors asking whether it’s still timely to short the stock, technical analysis shows that the current price is already near the short-term moving average resistance zone, placing it in a 'pressured from above' position. However, there are no clear signs of significant weakness or breakdown below key support levels. Until the support at HKD 30.70 is breached, the trend will likely remain range-bound. Therefore, chasing shorts may not offer a particularly favorable risk-reward ratio, with the stock more likely to fluctuate between HKD 30.70 and HKD 31.90 for now.
As for investors expecting a decline to between 23 to 24 yuan and holding put warrants with an exercise price of 22.86 yuan, this represents a medium to longer-term bearish deployment. From the current technical structure, the stock price remains in a consolidation zone above 30 yuan, which is still some distance from 23 to 24 yuan. Until a clear breakdown below 30.26 yuan occurs and forms a new downward trend, such expectations do not yet have technical support. If the subsequent price breaks below the 30-yuan mark and continues downward, the possibility of extending to lower levels will gradually increase.
Overall, Xiaomi Group is currently undergoing weak consolidation. Key resistance is at 31.89 yuan, with support at 30.70 yuan and 30.26 yuan. Before these supports are broken, excessive shorting is not advisable; if it breaks below 30.26 yuan, the trend could turn into a new round of decline. $HS#XIAMIRC2612B.C (68395.HK)$$UBXIAMI@EC2609E.C (28195.HK)$$SG#XIAMIRC2612D.C (68549.HK)$
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
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