[HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, AAC Technologies, Xiaomi, Wuxi Bio, Bilibili, Yangtze Optical Fibre - Post-market analysis on April 22

: Bullish investors expect a pull-up of 200 points, holding bull certificates with a stop-loss level at 25,800 points. On the other hand, bearish investors anticipate a close below 500 points and continue to hold heavy positions in bear certificates, with a stop-loss level at 26,650 points.

The Hang Seng Index remains in a consolidation pattern after rebounding. Currently trading at 26,188 points, it has stabilized above the 10-day moving average at 26,071 points, the 60-day moving average at 26,147 points, and the 120-day moving average at 26,124 points. However, upward movement is constrained by the 5-day moving average at 26,318 points and today's high near 26,303 points. This indicates that the index hasn't yet made a true breakout and will likely fluctuate between 26,100 and 26,300 points.

From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index rebounded from a low of 24,203 points and has gradually recovered recently, showing clear structural improvement in the short term. The current price of 26,188 points is above several medium- and short-term moving averages, indicating stronger support underneath. However, the middle line of the Bollinger Band sits at 25,557 points, while the upper band is at 26,785 points. Although the index is still above the middle line, there is still some distance to the upper band, meaning the rebound has not evolved into a one-sided sharp rise. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 56, suggesting neutral stability with improved momentum but not reaching an extremely strong level.

For short-term key levels, first look at the range between 26,071 and 26,124 points, corresponding to the area near the 10-day and 120-day moving averages. This represents the crucial short-term support zone. If this level holds, the index may have another chance to test 26,303 points. If it can stabilize above 26,300 points, conditions would be favorable for further upside expansion. Conversely, if it breaks below 26,071 points, short-term consolidation pressure will increase, and the trend could weaken again.

For optimistic investors who believe the market will rise another 200 points, technically it's not entirely impossible, but the prerequisite is for the Hang Seng Index to effectively break through 26,303 points. Otherwise, at this stage, it still counts as a consolidation after a rebound and does not indicate an obvious acceleration into an upward trend. Regarding the deployment of bull certificates with a call price of 25,800 points, the distance between the current price and the call price isn't particularly wide. Once the index retreats and fails to hold above 26,000 points, product risk will significantly increase. Thus, such deployments should pay closer attention to whether the level around 26,100 points can be maintained.

For bearish investors who believe the closing will drop below 500 points, from the current trend, although the index hasn't broken through 26,300 points, there are also no clear signs of significant weakness yet, especially since it remains above the 10-day, 60-day, and 120-day moving averages. Therefore, conditions aren't strong enough for a sharp single-day downturn. If holding bear certificates with a call price of 26,650 points, due to the close distance between the call price and the current level, any sudden surge in the Hang Seng Index breaking through 26,300 points and rising further would quickly increase pressure on bear certificates. Thus, short positions should not be taken lightly in the short term.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index is currently closer to a consolidating and pending breakout pattern. The short-term watershed can initially be seen at 26,071 points, with upward resistance first at 26,303 points. Before breaking through, the market situation will mainly remain volatile; if 26,303 points are breached, the rebound could extend further. If 26,071 points fail to hold, one should beware of renewed short-term pullback pressure intensifying.

2. AAC Technologies (02018.HK): Investors expressed waiting for a breakout above 40 yuan for continued upward movement, while some investors are also paying attention to call warrants with a strike price of 42.06 yuan.

AAC Technologies' short-term trend remains relatively strong, with the current price at 38.14 yuan. The stock has risen above multiple short- and medium-term moving averages and is further approaching the resistance zone between 39 yuan and 40 yuan, maintaining a strong post-rebound pattern. However, at this stage, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 77, indicating that although short-term momentum is strong, it has also entered an overheated zone. Hence, the 40-yuan level represents the most crucial breakthrough point currently.

From the trend perspective, AAC Technologies previously rebounded from a low of 31.20 yuan, gradually regaining support above the 10-day line at 37.24 yuan, the 20-day line at 35.74 yuan, the 30-day line at 34.86 yuan, and the 60-day line at 35.72 yuan, reflecting a noticeable improvement in its medium- to short-term structure. The current price of 38.14 yuan is also above the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at 35.74 yuan and near the upper band at 39.46 yuan, indicating that the uptrend continues. However, the stock has begun entering a resistance zone, so upward movement may not be as smooth as before.

Regarding key short-term levels, initial support can be seen around 38 yuan and the 10-day line at 37.24 yuan. If the stock can stabilize above 38 yuan and further break through 39.46 yuan, surpassing the 40-yuan threshold, there is potential for short-term upward momentum to push towards today’s high around 40.30 yuan, which would signal a clearer extension of the uptrend. Conversely, if unable to break through 40 yuan, one should expect the stock to consolidate within the range of 38 yuan to 40 yuan.

Investors expressing intentions to wait for a breakout above 40 yuan before expecting further upward movement align with the current technical trend because 40 yuan itself serves as both a psychological level and near recent highs. A successful breakout would make the trend more sustainable. However, until then, it is safer to view the current phase as consolidation at higher levels.

As for investors focusing on call warrants with a strike price of 42.06 yuan, from a technical perspective, such positioning anticipates further upside following a breakout. However, given the current price of 38.14 yuan remains far from 42.06 yuan, and the RSI is already in an overheated zone, these products would heavily depend on whether the stock successfully breaks through 40 yuan. If the underlying stock cannot break and stabilize above 40 yuan, the short-term attractiveness might not be particularly high. Conversely, if it breaks through 40 yuan and pushes above 40.30 yuan, it would benefit such aggressive strategies more.

Overall, AAC Technologies remains relatively strong in the short term, with market focus clearly on whether it can break through 40 yuan. Initial support levels to watch are 38 yuan and 37.24 yuan, with resistance at 39.46 yuan and 40 yuan. A breakout would allow the trend to expand further.

Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK): Investors are asking if it’s still a good time to short the stock. Some investors are bearish, predicting a drop to HKD 23-24, holding put warrants with an exercise price of HKD 22.86.

Xiaomi Group remains in a weak consolidation pattern in the short term, currently trading at HKD 31.70. The stock has been hovering below several medium- and long-term moving averages, showing no significant improvement in overall structure. For now, it is still viewed as a pressured rebound with a weaker sideways trend.

In terms of its movement, after retreating from the high of HKD 37.50, the stock has consistently failed to reclaim the 10-day moving average at HKD 31.54 or the 20-day moving average at HKD 31.89, indicating persistent overhead resistance. The current price of HKD 31.70 is close to the convergence area of the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, while the middle Bollinger Band stands at HKD 31.89. The inability to stabilize above the middle band suggests limited upward momentum. Immediate resistance lies at HKD 31.89, followed by HKD 33.30 (upper Bollinger Band). Support levels are found at HKD 30.70 and HKD 30.26.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 50, a neutral level, reflecting that the market currently lacks clear direction and has yet to show a one-sided trend. In other words, this phase is not characterized by a sharp acceleration to the downside but rather represents weak sideways consolidation.

Regarding investors asking whether it’s still timely to short the stock, technical analysis shows that the current price is already near the short-term moving average resistance zone, placing it in a 'pressured from above' position. However, there are no clear signs of significant weakness or breakdown below key support levels. Until the support at HKD 30.70 is breached, the trend will likely remain range-bound. Therefore, chasing shorts may not offer a particularly favorable risk-reward ratio, with the stock more likely to fluctuate between HKD 30.70 and HKD 31.90 for now.

As for some investors who are bearish on a potential drop to HKD 23-24 and hold put warrants with an exercise price of HKD 22.86, this represents a longer-term bearish bet. From a technical perspective, the stock is still consolidating above HKD 30, which remains far from the HKD 23-24 target. Unless the stock decisively breaks below the low of HKD 30.26 and forms a new downtrend, such expectations lack technical backing for now. A sustained breach below HKD 30 would increase the likelihood of further declines toward lower regions.

Overall, Xiaomi remains in weak consolidation. Key resistance is at HKD 31.89, with support levels at HKD 30.70 and HKD 30.26. Until these supports are broken, aggressively chasing shorts is not advisable. A break below HKD 30.26 could signal a renewed downward trend.

Wuxi Bio (02269.HK): Investors noted that the 5-day moving average is acting as strong resistance and asked if HKD 32 would be a good level to bet on a rebound. Some investors are watching put warrants at HKD 26.

Wuxi Bio's short-term trend remains weak, currently trading at HKD 35.22. Although the stock is holding above the 20-day moving average at HKD 34.62 and the 30-day moving average at HKD 34.78, it continues to face pressure from the 5-day moving average at HKD 35.76, the 10-day moving average at HKD 35.97, and the 60-day moving average at HKD 36.69, suggesting limited rebound strength. The short-term outlook remains one of consolidation under pressure.

From the daily chart perspective, the stock previously retreated from a high of HKD 44 and briefly tested a low of HKD 30.94. Although there has been some stabilization recently, it has failed to sustainably move above HKD 35.76-35.97, indicating that resistance near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages remains significant. The current price of HKD 35.22 is close to the middle Bollinger Band at HKD 34.62, with the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 38.10 and the lower band at HKD 31.14. This suggests the stock is likely to remain range-bound for now, with no clear indication of regaining bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index is near 41, indicating a relatively weak level, reflecting that short-term momentum remains average without showing strong rebound signals. Therefore, investors mentioning '5-day moving average under heavy pressure' aligns with the current technical trend, as the share price still cannot effectively break through the short-term moving average resistance zone.

As for whether 32 yuan is suitable for a rebound bet, technically, 32 yuan is closer to the lower Bollinger Band at 31.14 yuan and also near the previous low of 30.94 yuan. If the stock price later retreats near 32 yuan without breaking down, the betting value will be higher than the current level. However, at the current price above 35 yuan, there is still some distance from 32 yuan, so it's not yet in the low rebound zone but rather looks more like an intermediate position after short-term pressure.

Some investors are eyeing put warrants at 26 yuan. From a technical perspective, 26 yuan is a distant bearish target since the current stock price is still around 35 yuan, with the nearest visible support at about 34.62 yuan, followed by the 31.14-30.94 yuan region. Unless the support area around 31 yuan is broken, expecting a rapid drop to 26 yuan doesn't seem strongly supported by the charts.

Overall, Wuxi Bio has yet to break out of its weak consolidation in the short term. Resistance levels to watch are 35.76 yuan, 35.97 yuan, then 36.69 yuan; support levels to watch are 34.62 yuan, then 31.14 yuan and 30.94 yuan. If it later falls near 32 yuan but holds steady, the rebound's betting value would improve compared to the current level; if the 31 yuan zone is breached, the trend will weaken further.

5. Bilibili (09926.HK): Investors mentioned exiting bear certificates too early—are there opportunities to add short positions? Some investors are targeting 150 yuan while holding put warrants with a strike price of 149 yuan.

Bilibili’s short-term trend remains weak at 178.60 yuan. Although the stock rebounded from the recent low of 168.50 yuan, it failed to stabilize above the 10-day MA at 189.81 yuan or the 20-day MA at 185.53 yuan. Today, it dropped again, indicating significant selling pressure persists, maintaining a pattern of weakness following a minor rebound.

From the daily chart, after retreating from the high of 285.60 yuan, the overall downward structure remains intact, and the price is still below the 30-day MA at 190.86 yuan, the 120-day MA at 214.23 yuan, and the 250-day MA at 194.01 yuan, signaling a bearish bias in the medium-short term. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 185.53 yuan, the upper band at 199.84 yuan, and the lower band at 171.22 yuan. The current price of 178.60 yuan has fallen below the middle band, approaching the lower region, suggesting insufficient rebound strength and potential retesting of lows. The RSI near 30 indicates weakness and rising selling pressure.

For short-term key levels, immediate resistance is at 185.53 yuan, followed by the 189.81-190.86 yuan range; nearby support is at 171.22 yuan, then the previous low at 168.50 yuan. Breaking below 168.50 yuan could lead to further weakening.

Regarding investors who exited bear certificates too early asking if they can still add shorts, technically, the stock has indeed weakened again, remaining biased towards downside. However, the current price of 178.60 yuan is already near the lower Bollinger Band, and the RSI has retreated to near 30, meaning it’s no longer at the most favorable shorting level. Adding shorts now reduces betting value compared to before; a more reasonable observation point is whether the stock breaks below 171.22 yuan and 168.50 yuan, which would confirm further weakness.

Investors targeting 150 yuan with put warrants at a strike price of 149 yuan reflect a bearish outlook extending the medium-term downtrend. Technically, reaching 150 yuan isn’t impossible, but the stock must first break below the two support zones of 171.22 yuan and 168.50 yuan to increase chances of dropping further. Until those lows are broken, the current situation should be viewed as a pullback after a weak rebound rather than entering a new sharp decline phase.

Overall, Bilibili's short-term outlook remains bearish. Resistance levels are seen at 185.53 and 189.81 yuan, while support levels are at 171.22 and 168.50 yuan. Unless it can reclaim the 185-yuan level, the weak pattern will persist; if it breaks below 168.50 yuan, there may be further downside risk.

6. Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869.HK): Investors are asking how much upside potential remains if they buy now. In the warrant market, some investors hold call warrants with an exercise price of 399.9 yuan.

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable's short-term trend continues to show strong upward momentum. Currently trading at 247.20 yuan, the share price has steadily risen above multiple moving averages, reflecting a clearly bullish structure. However, the current price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 250.48 yuan and nearing recent highs, indicating that upward space in the short term is beginning to narrow.

From a technical perspective, after starting from the 80-yuan level, the stock price has consistently risen and is now firmly above key moving averages: the 10-day line at 219.28 yuan, the 20-day line at 201.06 yuan, the 30-day line at 185.91 yuan, and the 60-day line at 146.07 yuan, forming a complete upward trend. At the current price of 247.20 yuan, it is nearing the upper band at 250.48 yuan, and today’s high of 248.20 yuan indicates technical resistance around the 250-yuan mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 74, signaling overbought conditions, which reflects strong momentum but also increases the risk for those chasing the uptrend.

For short-term critical levels, initial support is seen at the 10-day line at 219.28 yuan, followed by the 20-day line at 201.06 yuan. On the upside, resistance is first seen at 250.48 yuan, and then we need to observe whether the stock can effectively break through and stabilize above the 250-yuan level. A successful breakout could extend the uptrend, otherwise, consolidation near the highs is more likely.

Regarding investor concerns about upside potential from current levels, technically speaking, short-term gains are mainly concentrated around the 250-yuan area, meaning limited extension from the current price of 247 yuan to approximately 250 yuan. Before breaking through 250 yuan, the reward-to-risk ratio of entering the trade has significantly decreased compared to when the price was lower. If the stock successfully breaks through and stabilizes above 250 yuan, the uptrend could continue; otherwise, consolidation at higher levels is more probable.

As for investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of 399.9 yuan, this represents an aggressive and deep out-of-the-money strategy. Based on the current technical outlook, the share price still has considerable distance to reach 399.9 yuan. Even if the uptrend remains intact, it would take multiple stages of upward movement to gradually approach that level. Therefore, short-term focus remains on whether the stock can first break through 250 yuan and extend its uptrend. Failure to do so would result in reduced sensitivity of related products to short-term movements, impacting their attractiveness.

Overall, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable remains strong in the short term but is approaching resistance levels and overbought territory. Initial support is seen at 219.28 yuan, while resistance is at 250.48 yuan. Until a breakout occurs, upside potential is relatively limited; after a successful breakout, the uptrend may expand further.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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