[HKEX Podcast] Post-market analysis on April 21 - Hang Seng Index, Mixue Group, Baidu, Genscript Biotech, HSBC Holdings, China Mobile

Bullish investors expressed that the index has already reached above 26,400 points and are waiting for a breakout to 27,000 points, holding bullish warrants overnight with a stop-loss at 25,700 points. Some investors chose to exit bearish warrants, setting the stop-loss at 26,800 points. Other investors indicated preparing short positions around 26,650 points by decisively buying bearish warrants with a stop-loss at 27,300 points.

The Hang Seng Index has risen above 26,400 points, and the short-term trend continues to stabilize. However, the current level is gradually approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 26,709.90 points, indicating that although the upward momentum remains, it is beginning to enter a resistance zone. The market's next focus will be whether it can further challenge the intraday high of 26,529.49 points and move closer towards the 27,000-point level.

From the daily chart structure, the Hang Seng Index closed at 26,487.48 points on April 21, maintaining support above the 5-day, 10-day, 60-day, and 120-day moving averages. The 5-day MA is at 26,270.09 points, the 10-day MA at 26,042.26 points, and the 60-day MA at 26,152.48 points, reflecting that the short-term rebound structure remains intact. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at 25,511.99 points, and the current price is significantly higher than the midline, while the upper band is located at 26,709.90 points, meaning that the index has notably recovered from its earlier low of 24,203.54 points, but upside room is starting to narrow. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 70, showing strong short-term momentum while also suggesting that market conditions are becoming overheated.

For bullish investors mentioning that the index has already reached 26,400 points and are waiting for a breakout above 27,000 points while holding bull contracts with a recovery price of 25,700 points, the current trend indeed remains relatively strong as the index has rebounded above multiple moving averages, and the area near 25,700 points is also below the current price by some distance. However, since 26,487 points is already close to the upper Bollinger Band at 26,709.90 points, and the intraday high of 26,529.49 points hasn't officially broken through yet, what is more worth observing now is whether the index can first stabilize above the short-term support zone between 26,270 and 26,152 points before assessing if it can move higher. If the market fails to stabilize in this region, overnight positions should be mindful of pullback risks.

As for investors who have chosen to stop loss and exit bear contracts with a recovery price of 26,800 points, this decision appears reasonable from the chart perspective. The reason is that the index has risen above several short-term moving averages and closed near the higher end of the day's range. The overall rebound structure has not shown clear signs of weakening, and the distance between 26,800 points and the current price isn't significant. Under such conditions where short-term momentum remains strong, the pressure on holding short positions naturally increases.

Additionally, some investors mentioned preparing to deploy short positions at 26,650 points by buying bear contracts with a recovery price of 27,300 points. From a technical perspective, 26,650 points is indeed close to the upper Bollinger Band at 26,709.90 points, which represents resistance-level deployment. This approach is not without basis. However, the relative strength index (RSI) remains above 70, reflecting short-term buying pressure. If the index breaks above 26,529.49 points and continues to trade near or even break above the upper band, short positions will face increased pressure. Thus, such strategies require confirmation of resistance showing signs of pressure; otherwise, contrarian shorts may not offer particularly favorable risk-reward.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index remains in a strong rebound pattern in the short term, currently maintaining support above multiple moving averages, improving market sentiment compared to before. However, as it approaches the upper Bollinger Band resistance at 26,709.90 points and the RSI reaches a relatively high level, if there is no effective breakout, the index may consolidate first at higher levels. In the short term, the upper range is between 26,529.49 points and 26,709.90 points, while the downside focuses on whether 26,270.09 points and 26,152.48 points can hold steady, which will determine the next key levels for strength or weakness.

2. Mixue Group (02097.HK): Investors are asking if it will surge to $350?

Mixue Group has shown clear short-term strength, but if aiming directly for $350, it’s still necessary to first observe whether resistance near $320 can be effectively broken.

From the trend perspective, the stock closed at $309.20 on April 21, hitting a high of $320.00 and a low of $294.60 today, with a single-day increase of 5.60%, indicating clear short-term buying momentum. After rebounding from the low of $273.00, the stock has continued to rise, breaking above the 5-day moving average at $308.56 and the 10-day moving average at $286.90. The 20-day moving average at $296.52 still serves as a reference for short-term consolidation, while $320.00 represents immediate resistance. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at $296.52, and the current price has moved back above the midline, with the upper band near $334.80, indicating that the short-term trend has shifted from weak to strong. However, moving higher will gradually enter the resistance zone. The RSI has risen above 71, reflecting strong momentum, but also beginning to approach overbought levels.

Regarding investor concerns about reaching $350, there’s no direct technical confirmation at this stage. Although the stock has strengthened, it must first stabilize above $309 and further break through $320.00 before targeting the upper Bollinger Band at $334.80. Only if the price breaks above $334 will $350 become a more tangible target. Conversely, if resistance forms near $320, the stock is more likely to consolidate at high levels rather than immediately rush to $350. In the short term, the trend reflects strengthening, but $350 is not the immediate goal; whether $320 can be broken will be the next critical step.

3. Baidu (09888.HK): Some investors are waiting for a pullback to $120 while holding bear contracts with a recovery price of $142.

Baidu (09888.HK) has shown clear short-term strength, and there is no sign of a shift to a downtrend at this stage. If waiting for a pullback to $120, one must first observe whether resistance forms near the recent high of $124.80 and whether the short-term uptrend begins to cool off.

In terms of the trend, the stock price closed at 121.4 yuan on April 21, with a high of 125.80 yuan and a low of 123.10 yuan today. After continuous rebounds, it has broken through several short-term moving averages. The 5-day line is at 121.42 yuan, the 10-day line at 115.54 yuan, and the 20-day line at 112.65 yuan; the current price has stabilized above all these levels, reflecting continued improvement in short-term momentum. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 112.65 yuan, with the upper band at 124.25 yuan, and the current price has risen above the upper band, indicating strong upward momentum, but also suggesting that the short-term trend is entering an overheated zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 78, showing significantly enhanced buying momentum. However, whether chasing higher or considering bearish positions at this level, one must be mindful that the rhythm may not be smooth.

Based on the current market situation, the stock price is in a strong rebound pattern, with no clear signs of weakness in the short term. Bearish positions should wait to see if resistance between 124.80 yuan and 125.80 yuan will truly take effect. If the market fails to break through and retreats from higher levels, bearish bets will have more justification; however, if the stock continues to stabilize above the short-term moving averages, bearish warrant strategies will face pressure from the ongoing uptrend.

Overall, Baidu Group-SW remains in a strengthening rebound trend in the short term, with the key being whether it can break through the resistance zone between 124.80 yuan and 125.80 yuan. Before clear pressure appears, short positions still appear contrarian.

4. Genscript Biotech (01548.HK): What is the next resistance level for investors to watch?

Genscript Biotech's short-term trend remains strong, but the current price has risen to HKD 14.42 and is very close to the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 14.598; therefore, the next resistance level to watch is around HKD 14.60, followed by today’s high of HKD 14.95.

From the daily chart perspective, the stock price has been continuously rising and is holding firmly above the 5-day moving average at HKD 13.796, the 10-day moving average at HKD 13.272, the 20-day moving average at HKD 12.214, and the 60-day moving average at HKD 12.168, indicating a clear short-term strengthening. The current price of HKD 14.42 is approaching the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 14.598, with today’s high at HKD 14.95, reflecting that the range between HKD 14.60 and HKD 14.95 will be the most important resistance zone in the near term.

However, it should be noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 89, indicating an overheated level. This suggests that although the upward momentum is strong, resistance will become more apparent as the stock attempts to move higher in the short term.

Therefore, if asked about the next resistance level to watch, first look at HKD 14.60, followed by HKD 14.95.

5. HSBC Holdings (00005.HK): Investors expect the stock to reach HKD 150 in May, while also holding call warrants with a strike price of HKD 153.98.

HSBC Holdings' short-term trend remains strong, with the current price rising to HKD 143.70 and gradually approaching the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 149.41. Therefore, if the market expects a challenge to HKD 150 in May, technically it is not entirely impossible. However, it is still necessary to observe whether the area above HKD 149.41 and the previous high of HKD 144.48 can sustainably hold and further push higher.

From the daily chart structure, the stock closed at HKD 143.70 on April 21, with today’s high also at HKD 143.70, indicating that the closing price is near the day’s high, showing a stable trend. The 5-day moving average is at HKD 142.22, the 10-day moving average at HKD 140.81, the 20-day moving average at HKD 132.97, the 30-day moving average at HKD 131.06, and the 60-day moving average at HKD 131.92. The current price is holding above all these levels, demonstrating that the medium- and short-term structure remains strong. The middle Bollinger Band is at HKD 132.97, and the upper band is at HKD 149.41. The current price is nearing the upper band, and the RSI has risen above 81, indicating strong short-term momentum. However, this also reflects that the market conditions are in an overheated zone, meaning resistance will gradually increase if the stock continues to rise.

For investors expecting the stock to reach HKD 150 in May and holding call warrants with a strike price of HKD 153.98, from a technical standpoint, HKD 150 represents an extended target near the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 149.41, so this view is technically supported. However, the current stock price is already in a high range, and the RSI is also elevated, implying that although the uptrend remains intact, it may not proceed linearly. If the market can continue to hold above the short-term support zone between HKD 142.22 and HKD 140.81 and further advance toward HKD 149.41, HKD 150 will become the next key focus for the market. As for the call warrants with a strike price of HKD 153.98, it will depend on whether the stock price can truly break through and approach levels above HKD 150; otherwise, it will take time for consolidation.

Overall, HSBC Holdings remains in a strong upward trend in the short term, and HKD 150 can serve as the next reference target. However, given that the current level is close to the upper Bollinger Band, attention should first be paid to consolidation pressures at higher levels.

6. China Mobile (00941.HK): Investors are asking if there is enough momentum to break through the two previous highs of HKD 85 and HKD 91? Some investors hold bull certificates with a recovery price of HKD 70.

China Mobile’s short-term trend has clearly strengthened, with the current price at HKD 83.70 already approaching the previous high area. However, breaking through both HKD 85 and HKD 91 in one go still requires a two-step analysis: first, whether it can effectively break near HKD 85, then assess if conditions are met to further challenge HKD 91.

From the daily chart perspective, the stock closed at HKD 83.70 on April 21st, with today's high also at HKD 83.70 and low at HKD 82.00; the closing price was close to the day's high, reflecting continued buying interest. The stock price has stabilized above the 5-day moving average at HKD 81.98, the 10-day moving average at HKD 81.53, the 20-day moving average at HKD 80.02, the 30-day moving average at HKD 79.81, and the 60-day moving average at HKD 79.41, indicating that the short-term structure remains strong. The middle axis of the Bollinger Band is at HKD 80.02, and the upper band is at HKD 83.46; the current price has moved above the upper band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 90, showing strong short-term momentum but also reflecting an overheated market condition.

Regarding investors' concerns about whether there is enough strength to break through the two previous highs of HKD 85 and HKD 91, from the current technical position, the distance between HKD 83.70 and HKD 85 is relatively close. If the price can continue to stabilize above HKD 81.98 to HKD 81.53 in the short term, there is indeed a chance for further testing of HKD 85. However, as the current price is already above the upper band of the Bollinger Band, coupled with the RSI being at an extremely high level, this suggests that even though the trend remains strong, consolidation or volatility may occur around the time of breaking HKD 85. As for HKD 91, which is still some distance away, without first breaking and stabilizing above HKD 85, looking directly at HKD 91 at this stage is premature.

Additionally, some investors hold bull certificates with a recovery price of HKD 70. From the current market situation, HKD 70 is quite far from the current price, and the stock price remains stable above several medium- and short-term moving averages, indicating a still-strong technical structure. These types of bull certificates with lower recovery prices currently have a certain buffer. However, it should be noted that the index is already in an overheated zone, so if the short-term upward movement slows down, the likelihood of consolidation at higher levels will increase. Therefore, it is more important to observe whether the region between HKD 81.98 and HKD 80.02 can hold steady, as this will impact whether the uptrend can continue.

Overall, China Mobile remains in a strong upward trend in the short term, with HKD 85 being the nearest key resistance level. If it breaks through and stabilizes above this level, then higher targets can be considered. HKD 91 represents the next target, but for now, we must first observe whether HKD 85 can truly open up further upside potential.

Friendly reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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