Who are the winners? The energy war behind the Hormuz Strait game

As the world worries about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Professor Sarah Thompson from the University of Cambridge’s disruptive assertion is quickly becoming a reality:“Trump's second term essentially is a global game using energy as a weapon.” The convulsion of the global energy artery is not an accidental geopolitical crisis but a key move in a grand strategy—raising oil prices, restraining opponents, and paving the way for America’s AI dominance.

While global attention is focused on conflicts and negotiations, capital is quietly flowing into areas that can profit from chaos.

Oil price above $100: Shale oil producers enter a period of windfall profits

US-Iran tensions have caused blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy passageway, with daily traffic plummeting by over 95%, triggering a global energy supply crisis and dramatic fluctuations in oil prices. Gulf nations’ oil exports have been severely obstructed (plummeting 61%), $Crude Oil Futures (JUL6) (CLmain.US)$with prices surging from $67.29 at the end of February to a high of $119.48, with an increase of over 32% since the end of February.

A significant gap has emerged in global energy supply and demand, forcing traditional oil importers such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe to turn to the US for crude oil purchases, opening up market space for shale oil companies.Energy research firm Rystad Energy estimates that if oil prices remain at $100 per barrel for the entire year, US oil producers could reap over $600 billion in additional profits. Data from investment bank Jefferies shows that the oil price volatility triggered by the conflict brought an additional $5 billion in cash flow to shale oil companies in March 2026 alone. As of the close on April 20,US stocks $Shale Oil (LIST2585.US)$concept sectors saw impressive gains, $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$、 $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$with major shale oil giants' share prices surging against the trend, Occidental Petroleum's 60-day increase exceeded 26%.

Great power rivalry makes energy transition the main investment theme of 2026

Trump’s energy strategy goes far beyond manipulating oil prices. Its core objective is to lay the energy foundation for America's AI hegemony. Previously, at the 2026 Davos Forum, he spent about ten minutes discussing energy,identifying grid strain as a core economic risk, and asserted: 'Just to meet the needs of AI factories, we need more than double the current national electricity supply.' Energy has become the infrastructure for great power technological competition.

Driven by the dual themes of 'energy security' and 'technological hegemony,' the main investment focus for 2026 will revolve around energy substitution. Three key sectors to watch include:

1. Nuclear Renaissance: The Strategic Revaluation of Uranium

Major powers are providing strong support for nuclear energy, markingthe shift of uranium from a commodity to a strategic resource. Despite market skepticism about the high costs and long cycles associated with nuclear power construction, policy-driven demand growth is certain. The large number of operational and under-construction nuclear reactors globally supports long-term demand for uranium.

According to reports, in 2025, China’s scale of nuclear power installations under construction will remain the largest globally for the 19th consecutive year, with domestic nuclear power investment hitting record highs; deliveries of core equipment have nearly tripled compared to 2023.

the commercialization loop for FSD is continuously being perfected, opening up new profit potential.The United States is also aggressively advancing its nuclear energy sector,with former President Trump previously stating at the World Economic Forum that the U.S. is 'vigorously developing' nuclear energy. He has signed an executive order approving multiple nuclear reactors. His family business, through Trump Media & Technology (DJT), has entered into a merger agreement with nuclear fusion company TAE Technologies to position itself in future energy. Meanwhile, the government is promoting trade agreements with countries like Japan to secure their investment in U.S. natural gas power generation and nuclear facilities.

It's worth noting that as of the close on April 20th,U.S.-listed nuclear power stocks $Nuclear Power (LIST2583.US)$The cumulative increase in April was 5.02%, of which $Oklo Inc (OKLO.US)$The increase in April was 37.39%, focusing on small modular reactors (SMR), 2026 will be a critical year for OKLO. The company plans to achieve 'critical state' of the reactor before July 4, the 250th anniversary of the United States, a technical milestone that, if achieved, may trigger a large-scale revaluation; $Energy Fuels (UUUU.US)$The cumulative monthly increase was 17.86%, the company owns White Mesa Mill, the only fully permitted and operational conventional uranium processing facility in the United States; Hong Kong stocks $CGN MINING (01164.HK)$ Monthly increase of 10.88%, as a rare pure uranium industry target in the Hong Kong stock market, the company holds interests in four producing uranium mines in Kazakhstan.

II. Cornerstone of Electrification: Copper's 'New Oil' Status

Whether it’s AI data centers, new energy vehicles, or power grid upgrades and transformations, copper is indispensable, being hailed as 'the oil of the electrification era.'。

JPMorgan estimates that by 2026, the incremental copper demand brought about by AI data center construction alone will reach 475,000 tons. Although NVIDIA once revised the data, clarifying that the amount of copper used in AI data centers accounts for less than 0.2% of global production, the market consensus lies in The AI-driven surge in computing power will force large-scale expansion of the power grid, which is the real major consumer of copper.An 80 MW AI park could require more than 2,000 tons of copper for its supporting power grid.

Hong Kong stocks$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$, it is not only a copper giant but also a multi-resource platform with 'copper + gold + lithium.' Its plan shows that mineral copper production will grow from 1.09 million tons to 1.64 million tons between 2026 and 2028, with an annual compound growth rate of 13.1%.CICC previously raised the target price for its Hong Kong stock by 10% to HKD 44, driven by higher expectations for metal prices and output. Zijin Mining's cumulative increase in April exceeded 11%, and since 2025, it has risen cumulatively by 180%.

US stocks $Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US)$, as the world’s largest listed copper producer, controls the top-tier asset Grasberg in Indonesia, making it the most direct beneficiary of rising copper prices, with a cumulative increase of 38% since 2026.

III. Energy Storage and Mobile Energy: Dual Drivers of Lithium Demand

The demand story for lithium has 'two engines': one is the continuously growing new energy vehicle market, and the other is the explosive growth in energy storage needs for AI data centers.Data centers require massive backup power systems (such as lithium battery storage) to ensure stable operation of computing facilities. Trump's requirement for tech giants to build their own power plants highlights the urgency of power security, indirectly driving up energy storage demand.

Tianqi Lithium expects global shipments of energy storage cells to exceed 900 GWh by 2026, a year-on-year increase of over 50%, which alone could bring more than 150,000 tons of additional lithium carbonate demand. The GGII forecasts that by 2030, lithium battery shipments for artificial intelligence data centers (AIDC) in the energy storage sector will exceed 300 GWh, with an annual compound growth rate of over 60%.

HSBC Research pointed out that the lithium market has tightened,and raised its lithium price forecast for 2026-2027, expecting the lithium price to remain at RMB 150,000 per ton in 2026.。The market generally believes that the industry has ended a two-year destocking phase and officially entered a prosperous period of 'active restocking,' with a significant recovery expected by 2026.

$GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$ is a global leader in vertical integration within the lithium industry,with core advantages in diversified global resource allocation (Australia, Argentina, Mali, Sierra Leone) and a complete industrial chain (upstream resources, midstream lithium salts, downstream batteries, and recycling).HSBC Research maintained its 'Buy' rating for its H shares, significantly raising the target price from HKD 54 to HKD 92. Ganzfeng Lithium's cumulative increase exceeded 54% in 2026, with the stock price soaring to HKD 87.5.

$TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK)$ Its core advantage lies incontrolling one of the highest-grade and lowest-cost producing spodumene mines globally — the Greenbushes mine in Australia,and holding a strategic stake in the world’s largest lithium brine producer, Chile’s SQM, with exceptionally strong self-sufficiency in resources. It is also a key beneficiary of the surge in energy storage demand. The over 15-fold year-on-year net profit growth forecast for Q1 fully demonstrates its significant profitability elasticity as an industry leader amid a cyclical rebound.

Tianqi Lithium announced its earnings forecast on April 20, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2026 to reach RMB 1.7 billion—2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 1530.31%—1818.01%.

$Albemarle (ALB.US)$One of the world's top three lithium producers, with business covering lithium, bromine, and catalysts, and owning high-quality resources such as Chile's Atacama Salt Lake and the U.S.'s Silver Peak Salt Lake.

Every opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz is not only about whether oil tankers can pass through, but also a signal of the direction of global wealth flow.The world is transitioning from the 'Information Age' to the 'Energy Age,' and those who control energy will control the future.。

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