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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a post · Apr 21 14:05

As long as the 30-day line is held, the stock remains in a consolidation phase. How should Tencent's short-term trend be deployed?

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Today, the market was locked in a tug-of-war, with the share price fluctuating between HK$515.5 and HK$525.5, showing no obvious directional breakout throughout the day. Notably, the share price consistently held above the key support level at the 30-day moving average (HK$514.8), indicating that the short-term trend remains in a relatively strong range. However, the share price has now approached the resistance zone of HK$523.552 to HK$526.500, and until it breaks through, the overall trend still reflects a consolidation pattern following the rebound, without fully opening up a new upward trajectory.
From the comments, market sentiment leans optimistic overall but is mixed with some caution. Many investors have started to consider whether there are still opportunities to enter, while others are hoping for the share price to test higher levels such as HK$530, HK$550, or even beyond, reflecting an improvement in market sentiment compared to before. On the other hand, some comments express concerns about market volatility, southbound capital offloading at highs, recurring negotiation news, and even the possibility of the share price retreating from its peak, indicating that although the market sentiment has turned slightly bullish, caution towards short-term fluctuations remains.
The most common questions in the market currently focus on a few directions. First, whether it is still suitable to chase at the current price or wait for a pullback to around HK$508 before deploying. Second, whether Tencent can successfully break through the resistance zone of HK$523.552 to HK$526.500 and further challenge levels above HK$530. Third, the market also pays attention to whether external news, capital flows, and thematic factors will continue to support the share price, extending this rebound. Overall, this reflects that although market sentiment has warmed, the focus still revolves around whether a breakthrough will happen, rather than confirming a full-scale uptrend.
Technically, HK$508.440 remains the short-term inflection point. As long as the share price holds above it and further breaks through HK$523.552, there is a short-term opportunity to test HK$526.500. Conversely, if it fails to hold above HK$508.440, the share price may retest the support at HK$504.240. The Relative Strength Index stands at 66.437, indicating improved short-term momentum; the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at HK$501.625, and the current price is trading above the middle band, reflecting a more stable trend. However, since it is approaching the upper band at HK$523.552, buying space is beginning to narrow. At this stage, the risk-reward ratio remains neutral, and it would be more suitable to wait for confirmation of a breakout or monitor the support performance near the pullback zone.
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Today, the market was locked in a tug-of-war, with the share price fluctuating between HK$515.5 and HK$525.5, showing no obvious directional breakout throughout the day. Notably, the share price consistently held above the key support level at the 30-day moving average (HK$514.8), indicating that the short-term trend remains in a relatively strong range. However, the share price has now approached the resistance zone of HK$523.552 to HK$526.500, and until it breaks through, the overall trend still reflects a consolidation pattern following the rebound, without fully opening up a new upward trajectory. From the comments, market sentiment leans optimistic overall but is mixed with some caution. Many investors have started to consider whether there are still opportunities to enter, while others are hoping for the share price to test higher levels such as HK$530, HK$550, or even beyond, reflecting an improvement in market sentiment compared to before. On the other hand, some comments express concerns about market volatility, southbound capital offloading at highs, recurring negotiation news, and even the possibility of the share price retreating from its peak, indicating that although the market sentiment has turned slightly bullish, caution towards short-term fluctuations remains. The most common questions in the market currently focus on a few directions. First, whether it is still suitable to chase at the current price or wait for a pullback to around HK$508 before deploying. Second, whether Tencent can successfully break through the resistance zone of HK$523.552 to HK$526.500 and further challenge levels above HK$530. Third, the market also pays attention to whether external news, capital flows, and thematic factors will continue to support the share price, extending this rebound. Overall, this reflects that although market sentiment has warmed, the focus still revolves around whether a breakthrough will happen, rather than confirming a full-scale uptrend.
For call warrants, if you are optimistic about Tencent’s future performance, you may consider $DSTENCT@EC2607B.C (22804.HK)$ Its exercise price is 622.72 yuan, with a leverage of approximately 11.8 times. This warrant has the lowest premium and implied volatility among its peers, making it relatively cost-efficient. It is suitable for investors who wish to participate in the underlying stock's upside potential with lower volatility risk. Another option is $DSTENCT@EC2607A.C (15198.HK)$ with the same exercise price of 622.72 yuan and a leverage of 11.2 times, which is the highest in the table. It also has low implied volatility, making it suitable for aggressive investors seeking higher leverage without incurring excessive volatility costs.
For put warrants, if you are bearish on Tencent's performance, consider $BITENCT@EP2606A.P (23122.HK)$ , with an exercise price of 499.8 yuan and leverage of about 11 times. This warrant has the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, effectively reducing the cost of being wrong on direction. It is suitable for investors with a clear view of the underlying stock’s downside. Additionally, $SGTENCT@EP2606A.P (21910.HK)$ with the same exercise price of 499.8 yuan and leverage of about 10.7 times, it offers relatively low premium and serves as an efficient tool for bearish deployment.
For bull contracts, if you are optimistic about Tencent and want to track the rise of the underlying stock with higher leverage, $UB#TENCTRC2608O.C (66465.HK)$ has a recovery price of 460 yuan and leverage of about 7.9 times. Its leverage level is relatively high among similar products, making it suitable for short-term investors willing to bear the recovery risk for potentially higher returns. Another option is $BI#TENCTRC2612Q.C (61677.HK)$ , with a recovery price of 470 yuan and leverage of about 8.4 times. It also features high leverage and can be used as a momentum tool to capture rebounds.
For bear contracts, if you are bearish on Tencent and want to hedge or short sell with high leverage, $UB#TENCTRP2812S.P (61361.HK)$ has a recovery price of 559 yuan and actual leverage of about 14.5 times. It has the lowest premium and relatively high actual leverage in its category, effectively improving capital efficiency for bearish strategies. Another option is $UB#TENCTRP2812T.P (62051.HK)$With a recovery price of 550 yuan, the actual leverage is about 18.7 times. It also features high actual leverage and low premium, making it suitable for short-term bearish investors with strong risk tolerance.
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Today, the market was locked in a tug-of-war, with the share price fluctuating between HK$515.5 and HK$525.5, showing no obvious directional breakout throughout the day. Notably, the share price consistently held above the key support level at the 30-day moving average (HK$514.8), indicating that the short-term trend remains in a relatively strong range. However, the share price has now approached the resistance zone of HK$523.552 to HK$526.500, and until it breaks through, the overall trend still reflects a consolidation pattern following the rebound, without fully opening up a new upward trajectory. From the comments, market sentiment leans optimistic overall but is mixed with some caution. Many investors have started to consider whether there are still opportunities to enter, while others are hoping for the share price to test higher levels such as HK$530, HK$550, or even beyond, reflecting an improvement in market sentiment compared to before. On the other hand, some comments express concerns about market volatility, southbound capital offloading at highs, recurring negotiation news, and even the possibility of the share price retreating from its peak, indicating that although the market sentiment has turned slightly bullish, caution towards short-term fluctuations remains. The most common questions in the market currently focus on a few directions. First, whether it is still suitable to chase at the current price or wait for a pullback to around HK$508 before deploying. Second, whether Tencent can successfully break through the resistance zone of HK$523.552 to HK$526.500 and further challenge levels above HK$530. Third, the market also pays attention to whether external news, capital flows, and thematic factors will continue to support the share price, extending this rebound. Overall, this reflects that although market sentiment has warmed, the focus still revolves around whether a breakthrough will happen, rather than confirming a full-scale uptrend.
Reply to some investors' views:
@Ray PukThe sentiment has indeed strengthened compared to before, but whether it’s suitable to invest in the short term still depends on whether the 523.552 yuan level can be broken.
@天天向上88888If a pullback occurs later, the area around 508.440 yuan is indeed worth watching as a short-term support zone.
@全世界和平The 525 yuan mark is close to the resistance zone, so whether it can stabilize will be crucial.
@求正數If short-term momentum continues, there is an opportunity to challenge 530 yuan, but the premise is still to first break through 523.552 yuan.
@炒米皇If after a pullback, the support holds, the chance for another surge does remain.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HKStocks #Real-TimeAnalysis #WarrantPick #WarrantGuide #DerivativesHedging #HKWarrantsJenny #Tencent #00700 #Blue-ChipStocks #TechnicalAnalysis$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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