[HK Stocks Podcast] Post-market analysis on April 20 for Hang Seng Index, Meituan, Nongfu Spring, JD.com, Goldwind Technologies, and AIA

Investors optimistic about the market believe that bear warrants above 26,600-27,000 will continue to be targeted tomorrow. Some are choosing bull warrants overnight with a stop-loss level at 26,069 points. Other investors are opting for bear warrants with a stop-loss level at 26,518 points, expecting a pullback of 500 points.

The Hang Seng Index remains strong in the short term, having rebounded from the low of 24,203 points and now trading above multiple short-term moving averages, indicating continued buying momentum. However, the current price at 26,361 points is approaching the resistance zone between 26,411 and 26,573 points. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.704, and the upper Bollinger Band is near 26,573 points. This suggests that while the uptrend remains intact, the risk-reward ratio for entering new positions is narrowing, so greater attention must be paid to entry levels in the short term.

From a technical perspective, 26,147 points remain the short-term inflection point. As long as the index holds above this level and breaks through 26,411 points, there is still potential to test 26,573 points or even higher resistance levels. If it fails to break through and faces pressure ahead of the resistance zone, the index may consolidate first. Should it fall below 26,147 points, watch for a retest of support at 25,905 points, which would shift the short-term rhythm from bullish advancement to a pullback for consolidation.

For investors optimistic about the market who have chosen bull warrants overnight with a stop-loss level at 26,069 points, their current strategy aligns with the short-term upward bias. However, since the stop-loss level is close to the inflection point of 26,147 points, if the index pulls back early tomorrow, the product's buffer zone will be relatively limited. Therefore, such positioning is better suited for those expecting the index to maintain its strength and quickly break through 26,411 points; otherwise, one should be wary of the pressure from high-level fluctuations.

As for the choice of bear warrants, with a recovery price at 26,518 points, investors who believe there will be a 500-point pullback are currently making preemptive predictions of a correction before encountering resistance. This view is not entirely unreasonable as the index has indeed approached the resistance zone between 26,411 and 26,573 points, and the upper Bollinger Band is also nearby, technically suggesting the possibility of encountering resistance and consolidation. However, the overall trend has not yet weakened. If the index breaks through 26,411 points and moves toward 26,573 points, bear warrant positions could become more passive. Therefore, this bearish strategy still falls under predictive deployment before encountering resistance rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index's short-term direction remains strong, but it has entered near the resistance zone. At this stage, it resembles a test of resistance within a strong trend, rather than being in a low-risk area for another significant unilateral rise. The key to future performance lies in whether it can stabilize above 26,147 points and effectively break through 26,411 points. A successful breakout would signal further upward potential; otherwise, caution against high-level consolidation or even a short-term pullback is warranted.

Meituan-W (03690.HK): Investors noted that both the Technology Index and Meituan lack trading volume, questioning if Meituan will fall below 80 yuan. Some investors have taken the opportunity to deploy bear warrants with a recovery price set at 95 yuan.

Meituan is currently in a consolidation phase following its rebound. After bouncing back from a low of 73.6 yuan, the stock price has gradually stabilized, but it is only hovering around multiple short-term moving averages without showing definitive strength. The current price of 85.15 yuan is close to the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at 84.485 yuan, while the relative strength index stands at 46.714, indicating average short-term momentum and insufficient market direction. Thus, the overall situation should still be viewed as a sideways consolidation pattern.

From a technical perspective, 84.485 yuan remains the short-term watershed. As long as the share price stabilizes above this level and breaks through 86.260 yuan, there is potential for a short-term test up to 91.811 yuan, signaling a possible shift from consolidation to strengthening. However, if 86.260 yuan cannot be breached, resistance remains above, limiting the upside of the rebound. Should 84.485 yuan fail again, attention should be paid to whether the support at 82.25 yuan holds, as failure to do so would indicate renewed weakness.

Regarding investor concerns about the lack of volume in both the Technology Index and Meituan, and whether it might fall below 80 yuan, there is currently no direct technical indication of such a breakdown since the share price is still above 84 yuan, with 82.25 yuan acting as a nearer support. In other words, levels below 80 yuan are not the immediate focus; instead, attention should first be on whether 84.485 yuan can hold, and whether 82.25 yuan will be breached. Only if 82.25 yuan fails will the share price approach testing the 80-yuan mark.

As for investors deploying bear warrants with a recovery price of 95 yuan, such positioning is based on the view that Meituan has not broken through resistance and remains in a sideways consolidation phase. This direction has some technical basis, as the range between 86.260 yuan and 91.811 yuan does remain a resistance zone, and short-term momentum has not shown clear signs of strengthening. However, it is important to note that the share price has not definitively weakened, but rather just hasn't strengthened. Thus, bear warrant deployments currently represent a cautiously bearish outlook within the range, rather than confirmation of a strong downward trend. If the share price subsequently stabilizes above 84.485 yuan and breaks through 86.260 yuan, short positions will start to face pressure.

In summary, the most important aspect for Meituan now is not to look too far ahead, but to focus on whether the 84.485 yuan watershed can hold. If it does, there remains potential to challenge 86.260 yuan; breaking above that opens the possibility of testing 91.811 yuan. If it fails, attention should be paid to a retest of 82.25 yuan, at which point the market will seriously reassess whether there is risk of breaking below the 80-yuan mark.

Nongfu Spring (09633.HK): Investors ask if stabilization above the low of 46.46 yuan will lead to a V-shaped rebound surpassing 50-55 yuan?

Nongfu Spring does show signs of a short-term rebound, but it has not yet fully formed a V-shaped reversal, nor is it at the stage where one can directly anticipate reaching 55 yuan.

From a technical perspective, the stock price previously hit a low of HK$46.46, but has since rebounded above several short-term moving averages. On April 20th, it closed at HK$48.70. The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are gradually converging upwards, reflecting an improvement in short-term sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also recovered to a stronger zone, indicating better momentum compared to before. However, the stock price is now approaching overhead resistance, especially around the psychological barrier near HK$50. Additionally, the upper Bollinger Band sits at approximately HK$50.20, meaning upward pressure will start to increase significantly if the price attempts to push higher.

For investors asking whether the stock will reverse and rebound as long as it holds above the low of HK$46.46—potentially breaking through to HK$50 or even HK$55—the answer is: holding above HK$46.46 does indicate initial support forming at this level, and a rebound could continue. However, technically speaking, the first target isn’t HK$55; instead, the focus should be on whether the price can stabilize above HK$48 and further break through the resistance zone between HK$49.30 and HK$50-50.20. If this level isn’t decisively breached, the rally remains a corrective bounce rather than a complete V-shaped reversal.

Therefore, a more reasonable view at this stage is that as long as the HK$46.46 level holds, the rebound direction can remain intact, with the immediate focus being whether the price can break through the HK$50 mark. If it stabilizes above HK$50, the trend may improve further. As for HK$55, it still represents a longer-term target, and discussing it now would be premature.

4. JD.com-SW (09618.HK): Investors noted that all three major platforms have fallen together, questioning how much room is left for JD.com. Some investors are also paying attention to call warrants with a strike price of HK$126.98.

JD.com has seen a significant rebound from its lows and has turned stronger, but the upside potential is now entering a resistance zone, no longer presenting high reward-to-risk opportunities from lower levels.

Technically speaking, the share price has risen steadily from a low of HK$91.99 and is currently trading at HK$122.40, firmly above multiple medium- and short-term moving averages, indicating a clear uptrend. In the short term, it briefly touched a high of HK$124.30, suggesting buying interest. However, note that the RSI has climbed to over 80, which is considered overbought, while the upper Bollinger Band lies around HK$124. The current price is already close to or touching this level, indicating that although short-term momentum remains strong, the upside potential is beginning to narrow.

For investors concerned about 'all three platforms falling together and how much room is left for JD.com,' the first technical step isn’t looking too far ahead but focusing on whether the short-term high of HK$124.30 can be effectively broken. If it fails to break through, the stock is likely to consolidate at these elevated levels, potentially even retreating to test support around HK$118-116 to digest recent gains before deciding on the next direction. In other words, there’s still some room, but the dynamic has shifted from 'smooth advancement' to 'gradually digesting pressure while rising.'

As for investors watching call warrants with a strike price of HK$126.98, this strategy represents a typical 'near-the-money, slightly out-of-the-money, betting on a breakout' approach. At the current price of around HK$122, reaching HK$126.98 would require the stock to not only break through HK$124.30 but also sustain the upward momentum. If the price fails to hold at these higher levels or experiences a pullback, time decay on such call warrants could accelerate. Therefore, the key isn’t the strike price itself but whether the stock can first stabilize above HK$122 and then surpass HK$124.30.

Overall, JD.com remains in a strong position in the short term but has entered a high-price zone where the risk-reward ratio has shifted from high to moderate. The key going forward isn’t chasing further gains but whether it can break through and stabilize above HK$124.30. A successful breakout would open up more upside potential, while failure to do so would likely lead to consolidation or even a pullback.

5. Goldwind Technology (02208.HK): Investors are expecting a move past HK$17.30 tomorrow, potentially reaching HK$17.61. Some investors are also monitoring call warrants with a strike price of HK$23.88.

Goldwind Technology’s short-term trend has clearly strengthened, with the stock closing at 16.93 yuan on April 20, rising over 9% in a single day. The closing price is also nearing recent highs, reflecting continued interest from investors. From a daily chart perspective, the stock price has been gradually moving higher along the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, currently remaining above several short-term averages, indicating a strong upward momentum. The upper Bollinger Band is around 16.35 yuan, and the current price has risen above this level, showing strong short-term momentum. However, it also suggests that the stock is entering an overheated zone, meaning while the uptrend isn’t over, volatility could increase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 82, further confirming the stock’s short-term overheated condition.

For investors expecting the stock to break through 17.30 yuan tomorrow or even aim for 17.61 yuan, this view does have some technical basis. As the stock is now approaching the upper resistance zone, as long as short-term buying continues, there is indeed a chance to first challenge the nearby high of 17.18 yuan, then move toward 17.30 yuan. If the price can break through 17.30 yuan, the market will naturally look toward higher levels, making 17.61 yuan the next target. However, it should be noted that after consecutive rises, the stock is no longer in its initial low-price range. If buying power is insufficient during tomorrow’s potential surge, the likelihood of consolidation or fluctuations at higher levels may increase. Therefore, 17.30 yuan will be a key short-term observation point.

As for investors watching call warrants with an exercise price of 23.88 yuan, this kind of strategy reflects a more aggressive outlook. At the current price of 16.93 yuan, 23.88 yuan is considered deep out-of-the-money, suggesting that investors are not merely betting on a small rebound but are anticipating a significant extension of the uptrend. If the underlying stock only experiences a short-term spike followed by consolidation, the reaction of these deep out-of-the-money call warrants might not be immediate. Only when the underlying stock continues to show strength and breaks through 17.30 yuan or moves higher will the logic behind such product positioning become more valid.

Overall, Goldwind Technology’s short-term sentiment remains strong, and the market indeed has grounds to watch whether it can break through 17.30 yuan. A successful breakout would naturally lead to expectations of higher levels; if it fails, caution is needed against potential consolidation after a sharp rise. At this stage, the focus is no longer on whether the stock is turning stronger but on whether this strength can be sustained.

6. AIA (01299.HK): Some investors mentioned preparing to push towards 90 yuan, noting that the stock has adjusted significantly from its peak and are considering buying call warrants to bet on a rebound, with an exercise price of 92.93 yuan.

AIA has yet to show clear signs of strengthening. Although it has pulled back from its peak of 92.15 yuan and undergone some adjustment, the stock closed at 83.50 yuan on April 20, still trading below multiple short-term moving averages. This indicates the stock remains in a post-correction consolidation pattern and hasn’t officially started a strong rebound yet.

Technically, there seems to be preliminary support around 83 yuan, but noticeable resistance remains between 85 yuan and 86 yuan. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is also near 85.50 yuan, meaning the stock has yet to return to a stronger region. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at approximately 40 suggests the downward trend has slowed but hasn’t shown clear signs of renewed strength. Therefore, for the stock to aim for 90 yuan, it must first regain and stabilize above 85 yuan before gradually overcoming higher resistance levels. At this stage, directly targeting 90 yuan remains overly optimistic.

Investors who believe that the stock has adjusted significantly from its peak and want to buy call warrants to bet on a rebound, with an exercise price of 92.93 yuan, are taking an aggressive view. Given the current price of 83.50 yuan, 92.93 yuan represents a relatively high target, meaning they’re not just betting on a minor short-term recovery but expecting the stock to sustain a continuous rebound and overcome multiple layers of resistance. If the stock fails to first stabilize in the 85-86 yuan zone, this call warrant strategy would remain passive.

Overall, AIA appears to be attempting a breather after its correction rather than being ready to directly push toward 90 yuan. If it can first return above 85 yuan in the short term, the rebound may expand gradually; otherwise, it should still be viewed as being in a consolidative pattern.

Friendly reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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