The S&P 500 has risen for seven consecutive weeks—should you chase the rally or take profits?

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New developments in the AI sector as Anthropic releases Opus 4.7 model! Trump pressures the Federal Reserve—how will US-Iran tensions affect market performance?

Global market sentiment fluctuated last week amidst shifts between geopolitical and monetary policy factors. On one hand, Trump's hints of removing Powell from his Federal Reserve governor role sparked concerns about the independence of monetary policy; on the other hand, Iran’s announcement of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels eased fears of energy supply disruptions. Amid these mixed factors, market risk appetite significantly rebounded, with all three major U.S. indices closing higher. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 even hit record highs for the third consecutive trading day. Meanwhile, competition in the AI sector heated up again last week as Anthropic launched its flagship model, Opus 4.7, along with the design tool Claude Design, propelling the tech sector to lead strongly.

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– Trump hints at removing Powell from his Federal Reserve governor role

According to market reports, former U.S. President Trump recently indicated that if current Federal Reserve Chair Powell does not resign from his position on the Federal Reserve Board when his term as chair ends on May 15, he will use his authority to remove Powell from his governor role. This statement further intensified an already complex standoff and raised market concerns over potential disruptions to a smooth leadership transition at the Federal Reserve.

– The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that most U.S. businesses are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainty brought by the situation in the Middle East.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book report pointed out that many U.S. businesses and households are still striving to adapt to the renewed tariff policies issued by the Trump administration, while also being impacted by energy price fluctuations triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The report highlighted that economic activity has grown in most regions of the U.S. over the past few weeks, with the labor market remaining stable. It also noted that the Middle East situation is seen as a major source of uncertainty, leading companies to adopt a cautious stance in decision-making regarding hiring, pricing, and capital investment. Many firms have shifted to a观望(wait-and-see) posture.

– Iran stated its refusal to participate in a second round of negotiations, while the U.S. used military force to intercept an Iranian cargo ship.

On April 19 local time, multiple Iranian media outlets reported that Iran had refused to participate in a second round of U.S.-Iran talks held in Islamabad, Pakistan. On the same day, U.S. forces intercepted and seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. The Iranian military accused this action of violating the ceasefire agreement and stated it would respond soon.

Previously, on April 18, the Trump administration announced the extension of a waiver allowing countries to purchase sanctioned Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded onto ships at sea, valid until May 16. Just two days prior, the administration had stated there were no such plans. The U.S. Treasury Department published the authorization on its official website.

– AI Competition Heats Up: Anthropic Launches Flagship Model Claude Opus 4.7 and Design Tool Claude Design

From last Thursday to Friday, Anthropic successively announced the launch of the experimental model Claude Opus 4.7 and design tool Claude Design, further intensifying competition in the AI space. Claude Opus 4.7 delivers comprehensive improvements in software engineering, financial analysis, visual capabilities, and creative 'taste,' and enhances its ability to follow instructions. The company revealed that Claude Opus 4.7 lags behind the more capable Mythos model in all aspects; the latter is available for trial use by a select group of top-tier institutions and will not be publicly released in the short term. Meanwhile, Claude Design, powered by the latest flagship model Claude Opus 4.7, targets users without design backgrounds and can generate design drafts, product prototypes, and slides via natural language input, supporting export to Canva for further editing. The company stated that this move aims to enrich the design ecosystem rather than replace professional tools.

Stock market >>>

– U.S. Market: Major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hitting record highs for the third consecutive trading day.

Last Friday, positive news emerged from U.S.-Iran communications, oil prices retreated, and improved market risk appetite drove all three major U.S. stock indexes higher. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index closed at record highs for the third consecutive trading day, with the Nasdaq gaining nearly 7% last week.

As of last Friday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.79% to 49,447.43 points, up 3.19% for the week; the S&P 500 Index rose 1.20% to 7,126.06 points, gaining 4.54% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 1.52% to 24,468.48 points, with a weekly gain of 6.84%. The VIX volatility index fell 2.62% to 17.47 points, down approximately 9% for the week.

Last Friday, the Mag 7 index rose 1.66%, with a weekly increase of about 7.8%. Among them, Apple gained 2.59%, Meta increased by 1.73%, Google and NVIDIA both rose 1.68%, and Amazon climbed 0.34%. On a weekly basis, Tesla surged nearly 15%, ending its previous eight-week downward trend; Microsoft rose about 14%, Meta gained over 9%, Google A increased by 7.7%, and NVIDIA rose nearly 7%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index gained 0.58% to 7,230.64 points, with New Oriental and Alibaba rising over 1.5%, and PDD Holdings climbing about 1%. Regarding individual stocks, Circle fell 1.44% on Friday but gained over 20% for the week; TSMC rose nearly 2% on Friday but dropped 0.02% for the week.

– European markets: Major indices in European countries generally closed higher last Friday.

Signs of easing tensions in the Middle East last Friday drove major European indices higher. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 1.56% to 626.58 points, gaining about 1.9% for the week. The pan-European STOXX 50 Index increased by 2.10% to 6,057.71 points, up 2.22% for the week; among its components, Ferrari and Hermès rose over 5%, while Mercedes-Benz Group fell more than 1.2%.

The German DAX Index rose 2.27% to 24,702.24 points, with a weekly gain of 3.77%; the UK FTSE 100 Index gained 0.73% to 10,667.63 points, up 0.63% for the week; the French CAC40 Index rose 1.97% to 8,425.13 points, with a weekly gain of 2%.

– Asia-Pacific markets: Major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region generally declined last Friday.

Major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region generally declined last Friday. At the close, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 1.75% to 58,475.90 points; the Japan TOPIX Index dropped 1.41% to 3,760.81 points. The South Korean KOSPI Index fell 0.55% to 6,191.92 points. For other major regional indices, the Singapore Strait Times Index dropped 0.20% to 4,997.93 points; the Thailand SET Index fell 0.49% to 1,482.45 points; the Australia S&P/ASX200 Index declined 0.09% to 8,946.90 points.

– Hong Kong stock market: All three major Hong Kong indexes fell, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping nearly 1%.

All three major Hong Kong indexes declined last Friday. At the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.89% to 26,160.33 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 0.97% to 5,042.68 points; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 0.67% to 8,845.02 points. In terms of sectors, tech stocks generally declined, with Baidu Group falling 1.14%, Tencent dropping 1.08%, JD.com declining nearly 1%, and Alibaba rising 0.44%. Concerning individual stocks, Quhe Technology surged over 140% on its first day of listing last Friday; Changguang Chenxin soared over 75%.

– A-share market: Mixed performance among the three major A-share indexes.

Last Friday, China's A-share three major indices ended mixed, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1% to 4,051.43 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.6% to 14,885.42 points; and the ChiNext Index climbed 1.43% to 3,678.29 points. In terms of sector performance, hardware related to computing power broadly advanced, with several stocks including Cambridge Technology, Accelink Technologies, and Huasheng Science & Technology hitting their daily trading limit. Notably, Yuanjie Technology’s share price temporarily surpassed that of Kweichow Maotai. Battery supply chain stocks performed strongly, with Shengyang Co., Ltd. registering its seventh consecutive trading limit. The concept of computing power leasing gained momentum during the session, sending Litong Electronics and Heli Tai to their trading limits. Meanwhile, sectors such as tourism, pharmaceuticals, and liquor saw significant declines.

Bonds>>>

– US Treasuries: Last Friday, US Treasury yields dropped significantly, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling more than 6 basis points.

Due to signs of easing tensions between Iran and the United States last Friday, market expectations for a Fed rate cut this year increased, driving up Treasury prices and causing yields to decline noticeably. In late New York trading, the two-year Treasury yield fell 6.55 basis points to 3.7082%, down 8.71 basis points for the week. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 6.32 basis points to 4.2480%, declining 6.90 basis points on the week.

– Non-US bond markets: Eurozone government bond yields fell sharply last Friday, with the 10-year German bund down nearly 10 basis points for the week.

Last Friday, Eurozone government bond yields generally declined significantly. The 10-year German bund yield fell 7.2 basis points to 2.960%, down 9.8 basis points for the week. The two-year German bund yield dropped 10.9 basis points to 2.408%, down over 19 basis points for the week. The two-year UK gilt yield fell 13 basis points to 4.09%.

– Government bonds: Government bond futures closed higher across the board last Friday.

Government bond futures closed higher across the board last Friday. At the close, the 30-year main contract rose 0.67%, the 10-year main contract climbed 0.15%, the 5-year main contract gained 0.06%, and the 2-year main contract was up 0.03%.

Foreign exchange >>>

– Dollar: The US Dollar Index edged lower, with the ICE Dollar Index closing up 0.01%.

Last Friday, the US Dollar Index traced a V-shaped pattern, recovering almost all of its earlier losses. By the close of foreign exchange trading, the ICE Dollar Index rose 0.01% to 98.227 points, down 0.43% for the week. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.06% to 1,192.87 points, declining 0.49% on the week.

– Non-US currencies: The dollar's performance against major currencies was mixed last Friday.

The US dollar showed mixed performance against major currencies last Friday, with the yen strengthening. By the end of the forex market last Friday, the dollar fell 0.36% against the yen to 158.61 yen. The euro dropped 0.16% against the dollar to 1.1762 dollars, and the pound declined 0.07% against the dollar to 1.3514 dollars.

– Offshore yuan: The dollar closed at 6.8160 yuan against the offshore yuan last Friday.

By the end of the New York session last Friday, the dollar was at 6.8160 yuan against the offshore yuan, down 69 points from the previous trading day (last Thursday). The onshore yuan stood at 6.8184 yuan against the dollar, up 46 points from the previous trading day.

– Cryptocurrencies: The crypto market generally strengthened, with Bitcoin rising about 3%.

Market risk appetite drove a general strengthening in the cryptocurrency market. By the end of the New York session last Friday, Bitcoin rose by about 3%.

Products >>>

– Energy: US crude oil futures plunged over 11% last Friday.

Last Friday, following Iran's Foreign Minister announcing that the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial vessels, oil prices significantly dropped. By the end of the New York session, US crude oil futures settled down more than 11% at $83.85 per barrel, with a cumulative weekly loss of 13.2%.

– Precious metals: Strengthened overall last week, with silver back above $80.

Gold:Gold prices strengthened, gaining about 1.5% for the week. By the end of the New York session, spot gold was up approximately 0.9% at $4,834.05 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly gain of around 1.8%. US gold futures were up about 1% at $4,856.60 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly rise of 1.44%.

Metals Futures Market:Precious metals strengthened overall last week, with silver moving back above $80. Last Friday, spot silver rose 3.27% to $80.9822 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly gain of 6.7%. US silver futures increased 3.1% to $81.720 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly rise of about 6%. US copper futures climbed 0.73% to $6.1435 per pound, with a cumulative weekly increase of 3.65%. Spot platinum was up 0.93%, with a cumulative weekly gain of about 3%, while spot palladium rose 0.72%, with a cumulative weekly gain of 2.35%.

[Disclaimer]

The content above is provided by Harbor Family Office (hereinafter referred to as "Harbor Family Office"), sourced from market information gathered from various channels. Neither Harbor Family Office nor its group members participated in preparing the content, nor did they explicitly or implicitly endorse or approve it. This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Investment involves risks. Readers should independently evaluate and judge this information and are advised to consult professionals before making any investment or trading decisions. Without authorization, no one may reproduce, copy, or publish the content in whole or in part to the public in any manner. Copyright belongs to Harbor Family Office and relevant providers.

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