April 17 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-1-Hang Seng Index, Akeso Biopharma, Tencent,

1. Hang Seng Index: Bullish investors believe the index will reach 26,600-27,000 points and are holding bull certificates with a stop-loss level at 25,907 points. On the bearish side, some investors hold bear certificates with a stop-loss level at 26,488 points.

The Hang Seng Index is still biased towards short-term rebounds, but it has now entered the resistance zone between 26,100 and 26,400 points, offering low reward-to-risk ratios. Investors should not be overly optimistic about reaching 27,000 points before breaking through, nor is it suitable to aggressively turn bearish at current levels.

On April 17, the Hang Seng Index closed at 26,160 points, with an intraday high of 26,210 points and a low of 26,015 points. After several days of rebound, the index has regained its position above the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 250-day moving averages, while approaching the crossover area of the 60-day and 120-day moving averages, indicating a notable improvement in short-term momentum. In terms of Bollinger Bands, the index continues to advance from above the midline at 25,445 points and is now nearing the upper band at 26,511 points, reflecting continued buying pressure in the short term, but also signaling that upside potential is narrowing. The Relative Strength Index remains in the bullish range, showing improved momentum without being excessively overbought, implying that further upward movement will depend on whether the immediate resistance can be effectively broken.

For bullish investors, reaching 26,600-27,000 points is not entirely impossible, but given the current levels, anything above 26,600 points would represent an extended target following a significant breakout, rather than an immediate certainty. The first hurdle for the Hang Seng Index is around 26,200 points, followed by 26,400-26,500 points. If the market can stabilize above these levels, sentiment may push towards 26,600 points and beyond, potentially testing 27,000 points. If unable to break through, the index is more likely to consolidate within the range of 26,000-26,400 points in the short term.

Investors holding bull certificates with a recovery price of 25,907 points are currently deploying relatively close to the market price. The advantage is higher leverage, but the risk is also evident since 25,907 points is not far from the current level. If the Hang Seng Index falls below 26,000 points, the recovery risk for this type of bull certificate will quickly rise. Therefore, this deployment is more suitable for short-term investors who already hold positions and strictly adhere to risk control, and it is not advisable to significantly increase bets at the current price. If the market can stabilize above 26,200 points again, the bull certificates may have a chance to follow the index upward.

For bearish investors holding bear certificates with a recovery price of 26,488 points, this stage represents a predictive resistance-based deployment, but the position is relatively close. Since 26,488 points is near the upper Bollinger Band and short-term resistance zone, if the Hang Seng Index rises and breaks through the range of 26,400 to 26,500 points, these bear certificates will soon face recovery pressure. Therefore, going bearish at this stage isn't entirely illogical, but it's only suitable for small bets anticipating a pullback at the resistance zone—it shouldn’t be considered confirmation of a weakening trend. Unless the Hang Seng Index falls below 26,000 points, bearish positions remain contrarian short-term trades.

In terms of short-term strategy, a more reasonable approach is still to determine whether there will be a breakout or resistance. If the Hang Seng Index stabilizes above 26,200 points and further breaks through 26,400 points, there may be an opportunity to test 26,600 points or even higher. However, if the range between 26,100 and 26,400 points continues to face pressure and falls below 26,000 points, the short-term uptrend will slow down noticeably, increasing the likelihood of a retest of 25,780 points or even 25,550 points. At this stage, it’s most important not to assume that the index will definitely rise to 27,000 points or immediately reverse downward; instead, observe how the index behaves in terms of support and breakout strength around the resistance zone. $BI#HSI RC2809I.C (55296.HK)$$UB-HSI @EC2606A.C (24012.HK)$$HS-HSI @EC2606A.C (24099.HK)$$UB#HSI RC2809F.C (54913.HK)$

2. Akeso Biopharma (09926.HK): Investors are asking if there’s a chance of breaking through 160-170 yuan next week? Some investors believe this is a short-term peak and anticipate a pullback. Others are paying attention to call warrants with an exercise price of 168.88 yuan, noting that the bid-ask spread is quite wide.

Akeso Biopharma remains strong in the short term, but the current price has risen to 151 yuan, nearing the previous high of 156 yuan. While it’s not impossible for the stock to break through 160 to 170 yuan next week, the requirements for such a move are significantly higher. A more reasonable view is to first see if it can break through 156 yuan before determining whether it has the momentum to challenge 160 yuan. As for 170 yuan, it remains an aggressive target at this stage.

On April 17, Akeso Biopharma closed at 151 yuan, with intraday highs of 156 yuan and lows of 147.3 yuan. The share price continues to rise along the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, well above the 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, and 120-day moving averages, showing a very strong overall trend and clear upward movement. In terms of the Bollinger Bands, the share price has remained near or even broken above the upper band, reflecting strong short-term buying pressure but also indicating that the rally is becoming overheated. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 85, an extremely high level, signaling strong momentum but also the possibility of short-term volatility or profit-taking.

Regarding investors’ question about whether there’s a chance of breaking through 160 to 170 yuan next week, the key lies not in speculative upside but in whether 156 yuan can be effectively broken and sustained. If the price can break through 156 yuan with significant trading volume next week, there’s potential for a short-term challenge toward 160 yuan, followed by testing 165 yuan. However, if the area around 156 yuan continues to face resistance, the stock is more likely to consolidate within the range of 145 to 156 yuan. As for 170 yuan, unless there’s exceptionally strong catalyst-driven news, it remains an extended target for the next phase rather than a realistic short-term scenario at this point.

The view that the stock has formed a short-term peak and needs a pullback isn’t entirely without merit, as the price has surged sharply from a low of 93.65 yuan. It’s now approaching historical highs, and the RSI indicates overbought conditions, meaning profit-taking could increase at any moment. However, no definitive signs of weakness have emerged yet. This can be seen as a strong stock entering a high-risk consolidation zone rather than having confirmed a peak. What investors should really watch out for is if the price falls below 145 yuan, which would signal a slowdown in the short-term uptrend; a break below 140 yuan would indicate a clearer pullback pattern.

As for the attention on call warrants with an exercise price of 168.88 yuan and their wide bid-ask spreads, this situation is common because the warrants are out-of-the-money and the underlying stock has surged recently. Market capital chasing the stock can widen the bid-ask spread, making it appear leveraged on the surface but actually carrying high transaction costs. If the spread is too wide, even correctly predicting the stock’s direction might result in returns being eroded by the spread. Thus, these products aren’t ideal, especially for entering at current highs when short-term volatility may increase.

In terms of short-term strategy, the most important thing is still to focus on 156 yuan. If the price can break through and stabilize above it, the next step could test 160 yuan. If 156 yuan fails to break, the stock is more likely to consolidate in the high range between 145 and 156 yuan, with initial support around 145 yuan and then 140 yuan. The current trend remains strong, but the risk-reward ratio isn’t as favorable as earlier stages. Deployment should wait for a confirmed breakout or assess after a pullback—not chase directly into a high position just because market sentiment is heating up. $SGAKESO@EC2608A.C (25883.HK)$$BIAKESO@EC2608A.C (25994.HK)$

Tencent (00700.HK): Investors are asking if there is strong support at HKD 510? Some investors continue to be bullish, holding bull certificates with a stop-loss level at HKD 485.

Tencent has some support at HKD 510, but it’s not a very strong ironclad bottom. A more accurate description at this stage is that HKD 510 is near a short-term watershed. Holding above it can sustain a rebound and consolidation; breaking below may lead to a retest of below HKD 500.

On April 17, Tencent closed at HKD 510.5, with today's high at HKD 517 and the low at HKD 506. After rebounding from the recent low of HKD 478, the stock price gradually moved back above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. However, the 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages are still above, indicating that this is just a recovery from the lows and not a full-fledged strengthening yet. The middle axis of the Bollinger Bands is around HKD 503, and the current price is just above the axis, reflecting an improvement in short-term sentiment, though upside remains limited for now. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has returned above 50, showing better momentum than before, though it hasn't reached a very strong level yet.

Regarding investors' questions about whether HKD 510 offers strong support, the answer is that there is support, but its strength is moderate. This is because the HKD 510 level is not only a psychological round-number threshold but also close to the top of the recent trading range and the convergence zone of short-term moving averages, providing a certain degree of support. However, from a structural perspective, Tencent has not truly broken through medium-term resistance, meaning that even if HKD 510 holds, the stock is more likely to consolidate after the rebound rather than immediately entering a one-sided sharp rise. If it can stabilize continuously above HKD 510, the next target would be a test of HKD 517 to HKD 523. If HKD 510 fails, watch for a potential retest of HKD 503 or even HKD 495.

As for bullish investors holding bull certificates with a stop-loss level of HKD 485, this strategy is reasonable as HKD 485 is below the key support area and maintains a distance from the current price, which aligns with the range where short-term pullbacks could still hold. However, Tencent is currently in a rebound and repair phase rather than a clear primary uptrend, so while holding bull certificates is valid, being overly aggressive isn’t recommended. If the price fails to break through HKD 517 to HKD 523, the time value and volatility risks will begin to affect the overall position experience.

For short-term strategies, HKD 510 serves as the first observation point. If it stabilizes above HKD 510 and further breaks through HKD 517, the trend may improve further. If it subsequently breaks through HKD 523, the rebound pattern will become more complete. Conversely, if HKD 510 fails, the short-term reward-to-risk ratio will weaken, and caution should be taken against a potential retest of HKD 500 or even HKD 485. At this stage, rather than simply buying based on support at HKD 510, long positions should ideally wait for the market to confirm stability and break upward. $HSTENCT@EC2609E.C (27509.HK)$$BITENCT@EC2609E.C (28036.HK)$$UB#TENCTRC2609R.C (54171.HK)$$JP#TENCTRC2610B.C (54229.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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