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Bitcoin Rebound Signals Intensify: Futures Recovery, MSTR Leading Indicator Strengthens, Wall Street Accelerates Entry

Report Date: April 17, 2026

Summary of Key Insights

The Bitcoin market is witnessing multiple positive signals on both technical and capital fronts. Open interest in Bitcoin futures continues to recover, MicroStrategy (MSTR), as a leading indicator for Bitcoin, is showing strong momentum, mainstream Wall Street financial institutions are accelerating their deployment in crypto assets, and the Fed chair nominee also holds substantial crypto-related investments. This article will analyze fromFutures Market Momentum, MSTR Leading Indicator, Acceleration of Institutional Adoption, Macro SignalsFour key dimensions to dissect the structural support behind Bitcoin's current rebound.

1. Recovery in the Futures Market: Leverage Capital Becomes Active Again

Changes in Bitcoin futures open interest often lead the movement of spot prices. When the market is poised for a directional breakout, activity in the futures market usually reflects it first.

Recent data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest has recovered to approximately25.4 billion USDLeveraged funds are becoming active again. On-chain analysts pointed out that since March, the inflow of Bitcoin into futures exchanges has consistently exceeded that into spot exchanges. This pattern is similar to what happened during the market bottoming-out period after the FTX collapse. The increase in leverage positions indicates that investor sentiment is recovering.

Source: Crypto, as of April 17, 2026https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/derivatives/open-interest?exchange=all_exchange&symbol=all_symbol&window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line

From a technical perspective, for the overall market to form a sustainable rebound, the open interest of futures contracts needs to rise in tandem, which is an important leading signal of a directional change in the market. The current structural improvement in the futures market provides derivatives-level support for further upward movement in Bitcoin prices.

II. MSTR Leading Indicator: The "Barometer" of Bitcoin Price

MicroStrategy (MSTR) has long been considered by the market as a leading indicator for Bitcoin. Historical data shows that changes in MSTR's stock price often precede Bitcoin price movements by several days to weeks, due to its unique business model; the company is essentially a Bitcoin investment tool with financial leverage.

Recently, MSTR has shown several positive signals:

The bond market restarts, continuously providing funds for Bitcoin accumulation: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) perpetual preferred sharesSTRCRecorded a single-day trading volume ofUSD 1.1 billion, the highest since the launch of the instrument. As of April 12, STRC's issuance plan still had up to USD 21.6 billion in available quota for sale. During the period from April 6 to 12, Strategy sold approximately 10,028,000 shares through STRC, generating net proceeds of about USD 1 billion, all of which were used to purchase 13,927 Bitcoin.

Technical breakout in stock price: MSTR's share price has broken through the50-day moving average, for the first time since October 8, 2025, while also remaining above the100-day moving averagefor the first time since August 13, 2025. A technical breakout is often interpreted by the market as an early signal of strengthening trends and will provide forward-looking guidance for Bitcoin prices.

Source: Bloomberg, as of April 16, 2026

Short squeeze potential is building up: Currently, about 314.1 million shares of MSTR are in a short position, accounting for approximately 11.44% of the floating shares. If the stock price continues to rise, it may trigger a short squeeze, which would further push up the stock price.

Source: Bloomberg, as of April 17, 2026

Position volume steadily increasing: Strategy currently holds approximately780,897 Bitcoin, with an average holding cost of approximately $75,577, and has recently recorded positive returns. A trader recently spent $12,300 betting that Strategy will hold more than1 million Bitcoinby December 31, 2026. This trader has only participated in bets related to MicroStrategy in the past, and all previous bets have been successful, making his judgment somewhat valuable.

Third, Wall Street accelerates entry: Institutional adoption achieves multiple breakthroughs

The adoption of crypto assets by mainstream financial institutions is accelerating:

Goldman Sachs applies to launch Bitcoin Enhanced ETF: Following Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Asset Management has submittedBitcoin Premium Income ETFapplication. The fund aims to generate current income while retaining the capital appreciation potential from Bitcoin price increases. This move marks that more Wall Street giants are expanding compliant channels for clients to engage with crypto assets.

Fed Chair nominee holds substantial crypto assets: The Fed Chair candidate nominated by TrumpKevin Warshhas submitted a 69-page financial disclosure document, showing combined assets of at least $192 million with his wife, and indirectly holding investments in Solana, dYdX, Optimism, Polychain Capital, and at least20 crypto-related entities. The confirmation hearing is scheduled for April 21. If confirmed, he will become the first Fed Chair with exposure to crypto venture capital, which could benefit Bitcoin policy.

4. Technical Aspect: Key Moving Averages Provide Upside Reference

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has broken through the $69,000 mark and is currently holding steadyAbove the $74,700 100-day moving average. The next technical target is likely to head towardsthe $87,000 200-day moving average. The bullish alignment of the moving average system is gradually forming, providing technical support for further upside in price.

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 16, 2026

V. Capital Flows: Spot Bitcoin ETF Records Largest Weekly Net Inflow in Three Months

Capital flows are a key indicator for gauging market sentiment and trend strength. Over the past week, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximatelyUS$996 millionin net inflows, marking the largest weekly inflow in three months, indicating that market risk appetite may be recovering.

From the daily capital flow rhythm, last week saw a continued acceleration of inflows:

Source: Farside Investors, April 14, 2026 to April 17, 2026

As of last Friday, the total asset size of spot Bitcoin ETFs surpassedUS$101 billion, with daily trading volume nearing US$4.8 billion.

Market analysis suggests that the main driver of this capital inflow is the easing of geopolitical risks. With tensions between the US and Iran cooling and the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, demand for traditional safe-haven assets (such as the US dollar) has weakened, leading to a shift of funds into high-beta risk assets like the crypto market.

From a structural perspective, Bitcoin is currently still in a range-bound consolidation phase: resistance is present above at approximately$75,000, while support has formed below at around$72,000. The market is in the 'liquidity redistribution' phase and has yet to establish a clear one-sided trend. However, the large-scale inflow of ETF funds is typically viewed as an early signal of a potential strengthening trend.

Conclusion: Multiple Signals Resonating, Market Momentum is Building

In summary, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of multiple positive signals overlapping:

Futures End——The open interest rebounded to $25.4 billion, with leveraged funds becoming active again, providing derivatives-based support for price breakouts;

Leading indicators——MSTR's share price broke through the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, STRC bond financing channels remain smooth, continuously serving as a funding engine for Bitcoin accumulation;

Institutional side——Goldman Sachs applied for a Bitcoin-enhanced ETF, Kevin Warsh holds a large amount of crypto assets; Wall Street’s participation is deepening;

In terms of capital flows—spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of nearly $1 billion in a single week, hitting a three-month high; risk appetite is expected to recover.

Technology side——Price holds firmly above key moving averages, potentially targeting $87,000 at the 200-day line.

For investors seeking compliant allocation of crypto assets, the current range is worth close attention.

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Important Information about China AMC Bitcoin ETF

Investment involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before investing in the China AMC Bitcoin ETF (the "Fund"), investors should refer to the fund prospectus, paying close attention to the risk factors. You should not rely solely on this material to make investment decisions. Please note:

• The Fund's investment objective is to provide investment results that closely track the performance of Bitcoin (as measured by the performance of the CME CF Bitcoin Index (APAC Close) ("Index")) before deduction of fees and expenses.

• The Fund is passively managed. A decline in the index may result in a corresponding decrease in the value of the Fund. The Fund is subject to new product risks, new index risks, tracking error risks, and discount or premium trading risks.

• Since the Fund invests directly only in Bitcoin, it is exposed to concentration risk and Bitcoin-related risks such as Bitcoin and industry risks, speculative risks, unforeseen risks, extreme price volatility risks, ownership concentration risks, regulatory risks, fraud, market manipulation and security breach risks, cybersecurity risks, potential manipulation of the Bitcoin network risks, fork risks, illegal use risks, and trading time lag risks.

• The Fund faces risks related to virtual asset trading platforms ("VATP"), custodial risks, and risks associated with differences between executable Bitcoin prices on SFC-licensed virtual asset trading platforms and the index price used for cash subscriptions and redemptions.

• Listed and non-listed classes follow different pricing and trading arrangements. Due to differing fees and costs, the net asset value per unit of each class may vary. The trading cut-off times for listed and non-listed classes also differ.

• Units of the listed class are traded at the current market price on the secondary market, while units of the non-listed class are sold through intermediaries based on the end-of-day net asset value. Non-listed class investors can redeem their units at net asset value, whereas secondary market investors of the listed class can only sell at the prevailing market price and may have to exit the Fund at a significant discount. Investors in the non-listed class may have advantages or disadvantages compared to those in the listed class.

• This fund involves multiple counterparty risks.

Please note that the above list of risks is not exhaustive; for details, please refer to the fund's prospectus.

Important Information about China AMC Ether ETF

Investing involves risks, including the loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before investing in the China AMC Ether ETF (the "Fund"), investors should refer to the fund's prospectus, paying particular attention to the risk factors. You should not rely solely on this material to make investment decisions. Please note:

• The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investment results that closely track the performance of Ether (as measured by the CME CF Ether Index (APAC Close) (the "Index")) before fees and expenses.

• Since the Fund invests directly in Ether, it is subject to concentration risk and risks associated with Ether, such as risks related to Ether and the Ether industry, speculative risks, unforeseen risks, extreme price volatility risk, ownership concentration risk, regulatory risk, fraud, market manipulation and security breach risk, cybersecurity risk, fork risk, illegal usage risk, risks associated with Ether staking, and transaction timing risk.

• The Fund is exposed to risks associated with Virtual Asset Trading Platforms ("VATP"), custody risks, and risks related to the difference between the executable price of Ether on the SFC-licensed virtual asset trading platform and the index price for cash subscription and redemption.

• This fund involves multiple counterparty risks.

Please note that the above list of risks is not exhaustive; for details, please refer to the fund's prospectus.

Important Information about China AMC Solana ETF

Investing involves risks, including the loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before investing in the China AMC Solana ETF (the "Fund"), investors should refer to the fund prospectus, paying close attention to risk factors. You should not rely solely on this material to make investment decisions. Please note:

• The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investment results that closely track the performance of SOL (measured by the CME CF Solana-USD Index (APAC Close) (the "Index")) before fees and expenses.

• The Fund is passively managed. A decline in the Index may result in a corresponding decline in the value of the Fund. The Fund involves new product risk, new index risk, tracking error risk, and discount or premium trading risk.

• Since the Fund invests directly only in SOL, it is subject to concentration risk and risks associated with Solana and SOL, such as SOL and Solana industry risk, speculative risk, unforeseen risks, limited history risk, hybrid PoH and PoS mechanism risk, inflation risk, extreme price volatility risk, ownership concentration risk, regulatory risk, fraud, market manipulation and security breach risk, cybersecurity risk, network disruption risk, forking risk, illegal usage risk, and time lag risk.

• The Fund involves risks related to virtual asset trading platforms ("VATP"), custody risk, and risks associated with the difference between the enforceable price of SOL on SFC-licensed virtual asset trading platforms and the index price for cash subscriptions and redemptions.

• Listed and unlisted classes follow different pricing and trading arrangements. Due to varying fees and costs, the net asset value per unit of each class may differ. The trading cutoff times for listed and unlisted classes are different. The transaction deadlines for each class may vary.

• This fund involves multiple counterparty risks.

Please note that the above list of risks is not exhaustive; for details, please refer to the fund's prospectus.

Data source：

Futures market data:

• Binance Square, April 15, 2026, https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/square/post/04-15-2026-btc-312791990507137

• CryptoQuant, Bitcoin futures open interest data, as of April 16, 2026

MSTR-related data:

• Followin, Strategy STRC trading volume and position data, April 2026

• Bloomberg, MSTR stock price and moving average data, as of April 17, 2026

• Binance Square, Traders bet on Strategy holding over a million Bitcoin, April 15, 2026, https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/04-15-2026-microstrategy-btc-312748501135377

• Strategy official website, Bitcoin holdings data, https://www.strategy.com/purchases, as of April 17, 2026

• Cnyes, STRC issuance amount and financing data, April 14, 2026

Institutional adoption data:

• PANews, Goldman Sachs applies for Bitcoin yield-enhanced ETF, April 14, 2026, https://www.panewslab.com/zh/articles/019d8c7f-201e-752e-88e4-80563050e6f8

• PANews, Kevin Warsh's crypto asset holdings disclosure, April 2026, https://www.panewslab.com/zh/articles/019d90ab-7b32-7550-a161-f8d4f7cd01e1

The market data, case studies, and industry observations mentioned in this article are for illustrative purposes only, sourced from public media reports and industry research, and do not constitute investment advice.

Investment involves risks, including the loss of principal. The price of fund units can go up as well as down, and past performance of the fund is not indicative of future returns. The value of the fund may be highly volatile and could decline substantially within a short period of time. Investors should read the fund's offering documents and product key facts statement before investing in the fund to understand the details and risk factors. You should not make any investment decision based solely on this material.

This document is for your reference only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities or funds or any trading thereof, nor is it intended as investment advice. This material is issued by China AMC (HK) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

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