Guosen Securities: Reiterates 'Outperform' rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810), with full-year profitability in smart electric vehicles

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities issued a research report stating that considering the impact of rising memory prices on the consumer electronics market, it has adjusted its earnings forecast for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ The profit forecast estimates consolidated net profits of RMB 36.2/40.6/49.5 billion for 2026-2028; optimistic about the synergy of the company's human-vehicle-home ecosystem and the performance growth driven by overseas market expansion, maintaining an 'Outperform' rating.

The main points from Guosen Securities are as follows:

Company revenue and profits hit record highs in 2025, with full-year gross margin increasing year-over-year.

Total revenue for 2025 was 457.3 billion yuan (YoY +25.0%), and adjusted net profit was 39.2 billion yuan (YoY +43.8%), both setting new historical records. The gross margin for 2025 was 22.3% (YoY +1.4pct). By segment, revenue from smartphones and AIoT amounted to 351.2 billion yuan (YoY +5.4%), while revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI-related innovative businesses reached 106.1 billion yuan (YoY +223.8%). Total revenue for Q4 2025 was 116.9 billion yuan (YoY +7.3%), with an adjusted net profit of 6.3 billion yuan.

The smart electric vehicle business achieved annual profitability.

In 2025, the division encompassing smart electric vehicles and AI-related innovative businesses achieved its first annual operating profit, with operating income reaching 900 million yuan. Throughout 2025, the company delivered 410,000 new vehicles, marking a 200.4% year-over-year increase. Revenue from the automotive segment reached 103.3 billion yuan, primarily driven by higher delivery volumes and the introduction of models with higher ASPs, such as the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra and Xiaomi YU7 series. The gross margin for the smart electric vehicles and AI-related innovative businesses segment was 24.3%, up 5.8 percentage points YoY. The company continued to expand its sales and service network, with 477 car sales stores covering 138 cities by December 31, 2025. The target for vehicle deliveries in 2026 is set at 550,000 units.

Smartphone shipments remained among the top three globally, with IoT and internet business revenues reaching record highs.

In 2025, the company’s smartphone business generated revenue of 186.4 billion yuan, with global shipments reaching 165 million units, maintaining its position among the top three globally for five consecutive years, capturing a market share of 13.3%. Revenue from IoT and lifestyle consumer products totaled 123.2 billion yuan, growing 18.3% YoY, setting a new historical high. Gross margin improved by 2.8 percentage points YoY to 23.1%. Notably, revenue from smart home appliances grew 23.1% YoY, and wearable wristband devices ranked first globally in terms of shipments. Internet services revenue in 2025 reached 37.4 billion yuan, growing 9.7% YoY and also reaching a new record. Advertising revenue within this segment reached 28.5 billion yuan, up 15.2% YoY.

Continued increased investment in R&D, releasing flagship base model and mobile Agent.

The company continues to advance its 'Human-Vehicle-Home Full Ecosystem' strategy, making substantial investments in core underlying technologies. In 2025, R&D expenditures reached 33.1 billion yuan, increasing 37.8% YoY. In March 2026, the company officially released Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Pro, its flagship base model for the Agent era, with over one trillion (1T) parameters. Additionally, the company has leveraged AI capabilities to fully empower the human-vehicle-home full ecosystem scenarios. Xiaomi's mobile Agent—Xiaomi miclaw—has entered a small-scale closed beta test, focusing on validating the execution capabilities of large models within Xiaomi's human-vehicle-home full ecosystem, exploring pathways to transition these models from conversational abilities to system-level execution.

Risk Warning:Weaker-than-expected downstream demand; intensifying industry competition; risks related to exchange rate fluctuations.

7807 Views