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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a post · Apr 17 14:06

Alibaba is testing the resistance zone, with a strong rebound but increasing divergence at higher levels.

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The current price is HKD 136.8. The stock has been recovering steadily after bouncing from its lows and has now risen above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. The short-term structure has clearly improved, showing a strong rebound trend. However, the current price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band and is also close to the resistance level of HKD 136.57, indicating that although upward momentum remains, pressure at higher levels is becoming apparent, and the space for chasing gains has narrowed compared to the early stage of the rebound.
From the comments, market sentiment appears generally optimistic, with a clear majority of investors leaning towards expecting further upside continuation. Many are focusing on levels such as HKD 140, HKD 143, HKD 150, or even higher. Some investors who have recovered their losses are choosing to hold on, reflecting a noticeable improvement in market confidence. However, amidst the optimism, signs of divergence at higher levels are starting to emerge, with some investors beginning to consider reducing positions or taking profits. There is also attention on selling pressure at HKD 136, late-day selling pressure after 3 p.m., and resistance above HKD 140, suggesting that the market is not uniformly euphoric but has entered a phase of high-level volatility following a strong rebound.
Common market questions are mainly focused on a few directions: whether tomorrow will see a pullback or continued rise, whether the HKD 136.57 level can be broken, whether resistance above HKD 140 is too strong, whether one should take partial profits at current levels, and whether there's potential to challenge HKD 150 in the longer term. These questions reflect one core issue: whether this round of rebound has enough momentum to evolve from a recovery phase into a more complete upward trend structure.
From a technical perspective, HKD 127.52 is the short-term inflection point. As long as it holds steady, the strong rebound pattern can continue. The immediate key resistance is at HKD 136.57, and if broken through and stabilized, the stock price could further test HKD 146.698. However, before breaking through, the current price is already near the upper Bollinger Band, and the relative strength index is at relatively high levels, indicating strong momentum but risk-reward attractiveness has shifted to neutral. If the resistance cannot be broken afterward or if it falls back below HKD 127.52, it will be necessary to watch for slowing rebound momentum, with the stock potentially testing support at HKD 125.655. At this stage, deployment strategies should focus on waiting for breakout confirmation or observing after a pullback rather than blindly chasing highs ahead of resistance.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The current price is HKD 136.8. The stock has been recovering steadily after bouncing from its lows and has now risen above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. The short-term structure has clearly improved, showing a strong rebound trend. However, the current price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band and is also close to the resistance level of HKD 136.57, indicating that although upward momentum remains, pressure at higher levels is becoming apparent, and the space for chasing gains has narrowed compared to the early stage of the rebound. From the comments, market sentiment appears generally optimistic, with a clear majority of investors leaning towards expecting further upside continuation. Many are focusing on levels such as HKD 140, HKD 143, HKD 150, or even higher. Some investors who have recovered their losses are choosing to hold on, reflecting a noticeable improvement in market confidence. However, amidst the optimism, signs of divergence at higher levels are starting to emerge, with some investors beginning to consider reducing positions or taking profits. There is also attention on selling pressure at HKD 136, late-day selling pressure after 3 p.m., and resistance above HKD 140, suggesting that the market is not uniformly euphoric but has entered a phase of high-level volatility following a strong rebound. Common market questions are mainly focused on a few directions: whether tomorrow will see a pullback or continued rise, whether the HKD 136.57 level can be broken, whether resistance above HKD 140 is too strong, whether one should take partial profits at current levels, and whether there's potential to challenge HKD 150 in the longer term. These questions reflect one core issue: whether this round of rebound has enough momentum to evolve from a recovery phase into a more complete upward trend structure. From a technical perspective, HKD 127.52 is the short-term...
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$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The current price is HKD 136.8. The stock has been recovering steadily after bouncing from its lows and has now risen above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. The short-term structure has clearly improved, showing a strong rebound trend. However, the current price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band and is also close to the resistance level of HKD 136.57, indicating that although upward momentum remains, pressure at higher levels is becoming apparent, and the space for chasing gains has narrowed compared to the early stage of the rebound. From the comments, market sentiment appears generally optimistic, with a clear majority of investors leaning towards expecting further upside continuation. Many are focusing on levels such as HKD 140, HKD 143, HKD 150, or even higher. Some investors who have recovered their losses are choosing to hold on, reflecting a noticeable improvement in market confidence. However, amidst the optimism, signs of divergence at higher levels are starting to emerge, with some investors beginning to consider reducing positions or taking profits. There is also attention on selling pressure at HKD 136, late-day selling pressure after 3 p.m., and resistance above HKD 140, suggesting that the market is not uniformly euphoric but has entered a phase of high-level volatility following a strong rebound. Common market questions are mainly focused on a few directions: whether tomorrow will see a pullback or continued rise, whether the HKD 136.57 level can be broken, whether resistance above HKD 140 is too strong, whether one should take partial profits at current levels, and whether there's potential to challenge HKD 150 in the longer term. These questions reflect one core issue: whether this round of rebound has enough momentum to evolve from a recovery phase into a more complete upward trend structure. From a technical perspective, HKD 127.52 is the short-term...
Reply to some investors' views:
@@剛哥Directly breaking above 143.5 is normal; the 60-day moving average.
To reach 143.5 yuan directly, the premise is still to first break through 136.57 yuan, then look at the resistance zone above 140 yuan.
@@232476310Break above 150.
150 yuan is the next more aggressive target; in the short term, focus on two levels of resistance at 136.57 yuan and 146.698 yuan.
@@welldoneecDid it fall back to 120?
If 127.52 yuan is breached, the risk of testing lower support will increase, but no confirmation signal for this scenario has been seen yet.
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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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