Pop Mart's rebound has not reversed its weak trend, with 171 yuan becoming the key short-term resistance.

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ After three consecutive gains, a pullback occurred today. The current price is 159.5 yuan, down 3.22%. Despite a short-term rebound exceeding 14% from the recent low of 140 Hong Kong dollars, the stock price remains pressured below the 20-day moving average (168.4 yuan) and the 30-day moving average (181.3 yuan). The upward pressure has yet to be fully resolved, and the overall trend is still in the post-oversold rebound recovery phase. From comments, although some investors are starting to see an extended rebound and are even eyeing levels of 180 or 200 yuan, more voices remain focused on risks, defense, and whether there will be further declines. Many are particularly concerned about insufficient rebound momentum, heavy resistance around 170 yuan, and the trend not truly reversing. Some also believe it should be viewed as a trading range, cautioning against taking large positions too early.

Overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, but a consensus bullish atmosphere has not formed. Common questions mainly focus on several areas: whether the stock price can stabilize above 171 yuan, whether the next target should be 130 or 180 yuan, whether it will drop again after going ex-dividend, and whether it’s advisable to wait for lower levels at this stage. These questions reflect that the market’s primary concern is not just daily rebounds, but whether this round of rebound can evolve into a true trend reversal.

From a technical perspective, 158.38 yuan is the short-term inflection point; as long as it holds steady, the rebound recovery can continue. The most critical resistance level is at 171.21 yuan, and if it breaks through and stabilizes above this level, the rebound could extend further to 183.107 yuan. However, until it breaks through, the stock price remains below the middle axis of the Bollinger Band. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered, it only reflects short-term momentum improvement and is insufficient to confirm an overall structural strengthening. If it subsequently falls below 158.38 yuan, one should be cautious of the stock price retesting support near 152.79 yuan. At this stage, the reward-to-risk ratio is neutral. A better strategy would be to wait for confirmation of a resistance breakout or observe after a pullback to support, rather than assuming the current rebound marks the beginning of a new upward trend.

Reply to investor viewpoints:@上山打老虎12345Duan Yongping should put his money where his mouth is if he genuinely believes in the stock. Selling puts and then hyping the stock means he doesn’t have to take delivery if the price doesn't drop, which is logically contradictory. There is indeed market divergence over such actions, but for the stock price, the more important factor remains whether it can break through 171.21 yuan, rather than the attitude of any single market figure.

@月巴米Very heavy... like the 20-day moving average acting as resistance, the resistance level has increased. This judgment aligns closely with technical analysis, with the area near 171 yuan indeed being the heaviest resistance zone at this stage.

@35 Hudson StFurther consolidation will lead to an accelerated rise. If consolidation can be completed between 158 and 171 yuan, followed by a breakout above 171 yuan, this scenario could materialize.

Pop Mart (09992) Key Strategy: 158.38 is the watershed; holding above it may trigger a rebound towards 171.21 and 183.10; breaking through 171.21 allows for momentum trading; failing below 158.38 turns bearish, testing 152.79.

Strategy One | Support Rebound Deployment

$UBPOMRT@EC2609D.C (27992.HK)$ | Strike Price 210.12 | Actual Leverage 4.0x | Slightly out-of-the-money, suitable for betting on a mild rebound after holding above 158. $HSPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27798.HK)$ | Strike Price 209.92 | Actual Leverage 4.2x | Slightly higher leverage, suitable for capturing rebound momentum after confirming stabilization. $CIPOMRT@EC2609B.C (28026.HK)$ | Strike Price 210.12 | Actual Leverage 4.6x | More aggressive leverage, suitable for short-term rebound acceleration plays.

Strategy Two | Chasing Momentum After Breakout

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike Price 186.88 | Actual Leverage 4.0x | Near out-of-the-money, suitable for following through after breaking above 171.$CTPOMRT@EC2609D.C (28018.HK)$ | Strike Price 186.78 | Actual Leverage 4.2x | Balanced terms, suitable for sustained upward movement after a breakout.$JPPOMRT@EC2609B.C (27996.HK)$ | Strike Price 186.98 | Actual Leverage 4.0x | Stable leverage, suitable for medium-short term holding after breakout confirmation.

Strategy Three | Deployment After Losing Support

$UBPOMRT@EP2607D.P (26031.HK)$ | Strike Price 209.72 | Actual Leverage 2.1x | Close to current price, suitable for initial defense if 158 is breached$UBPOMRT@EP2607C.P (25398.HK)$ | Strike Price 182.78 | Actual Leverage 2.9x | Moderate leverage, suitable for following the trend in extended declines$UBPOMRT@EP2609A.P (25399.HK)$ | Strike Price 179.90 | Actual Leverage 2.5x | A closer-priced bear certificate alternative, suitable for mid-phase downward deployment

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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