Baidu shows strong short-term momentum, but the risk of chasing high increases; focus on the support at 122 yuan

After rebounding from a low position, there has been a noticeable surge. It is now back above several short-term moving averages and once broke through the upper Bollinger Band, indicating extremely strong short-term momentum. However, the stock price has entered the resistance zone, with the uptrend transitioning from an initial acceleration to a phase of testing at higher levels.

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Looking at the broader tech sector, yesterday's (16th) market saw widespread gains, with Baidu surging 7.69%, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ (+5.60%)、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ (+3.61%) and $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ (+2.84%) both recording significant gains. Technically, the sector exhibits characteristics of 'oversold bounce convergence but structural divergence': The technical signals for Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan are all 'neutral', and their prices generally stand above the MA10 but remain constrained by the MA30 or MA60, indicating this is a sector-wide rally driven by oversold recovery. Notably, Meituan (03690) is the only individual stock that has stabilized above the MA30, showing slightly stronger short-term structure compared to Baidu.

For Baidu, this means that although its strong rally is supported by sector sentiment, whether it can independently break through and stabilize above the pivotal level of 122 yuan and the MA60 (128.45 yuan) will determine whether it continues to lead the rebound or remains constrained by the sector’s overall mid-term moving average pressure.

From the comments, market sentiment has clearly shifted to a mix of excitement and divergence. On one hand, many investors have started chasing prices, even expecting higher targets, leaning towards optimism or even aggression; on the other hand, some investors have begun to worry about the overhead resistance, even considering turning bearish or have already taken profits and exited. Overall, the market has moved from initial skepticism into a divergence phase after a rapid rise in sentiment.

Common questions focus on several directions, including whether the current price is still suitable for entering, whether 122 yuan can be effectively broken through, whether it has become overheated and needs a pullback, and whether short-term profits should be taken or positions adjusted. Some investors are also concerned about whether there are still opportunities to enter after missing lower prices, reflecting a clear increase in the mindset of chasing prices.

Reply to some investors' views:

@上水财神 Baidu does face pressure above, requiring observation to see if it can digest it before moving higher.

@美股789 Baidu's momentum remains, but the uptrend has entered the high-price zone.

@futurobotWhether it’s the last chance to enter depends on whether Baidu can stabilize above 122 yuan.

Technically, Baidu closed at 123.3 yuan yesterday (16th), already above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with the Relative Strength Index at a relatively high level, indicating extremely strong short-term momentum, but at the same time, the risk of entering is also beginning to rise. The key lies in the pivotal level of 118.5 yuan; as long as it can stabilize above this level and remain above 122.01 yuan, the trend still has the potential to continue upward and test 127.31 yuan; conversely, once 118.5 yuan is breached, watch for a strong rebound turning into consolidation at high levels. Overall, the trend remains strong, but has entered the high-price zone, requiring more cautious positioning.

Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:

$JP#BAIDURC2606C.C (56934.HK)$$SG#BAIDURP2812G.P (67798.HK)$

$BPBAIDU@EC2606A.C (20451.HK)$$BIBAIDU@EP2607A.P (20719.HK)$

For more market analysis, stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'Hong Kong Stock Warrants'!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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