Wall Street Briefing (April 17): US stocks rose moderately on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs. Sentiment was warm but not overly optimistic; the market continued to focus on easing geopolitical tensions and AI-related themes, with strength in energy, communications, and Chinese tech stocks.

Summary: US stocks rose moderately on Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 0.26%, Nasdaq up 0.36%, Dow Jones up 0.24%, and Russell 2000 up 0.22%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued to reach new highs, with the Nasdaq extending its winning streak to 12 days. The VIX dropped to 17.94, a decrease of 1.27% from the previous day, indicating sentiment remained warm but had room before becoming overly optimistic. Market activity continued to revolve around two key themes: first, Pakistan's ongoing mediation of a second round of US-Iran talks, with markets betting that the worst-case scenario would not escalate in the short term; second, Taiwan Semiconductor's strong earnings and guidance boosting confidence in the AI theme. In terms of sector performance, energy and communications showed strength, and Chinese tech stocks performed well overall. In major asset classes, the US Dollar Index rose by 0.12%, gold fell slightly by 0.02%, crude oil surged by 1.74%, and Bitcoin dipped marginally by 0.13%.

I. Major Events

1. Pakistan continues to mediate the second round of US-Iran talks

Before the ceasefire deadline, Pakistan continued to push for a second round of talks between the US and Iran, leading the market to bet that the worst-case scenario would not escalate for now. However, core issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, and war damage compensation remain unresolved, meaning risks have merely shifted from military confrontation to diplomatic tug-of-war and are not entirely gone. For the market, this is enough to suppress extreme risk aversion, but not sufficient to completely eliminate oil market tension and inflation concerns.

2. Taiwan Semiconductor's earnings and guidance continue to boost confidence in the AI theme

Taiwan Semiconductor’s Q1 revenue reached $35.9 billion, with gross margins rising to 66.2%. Q2 revenue guidance was further raised to $39-40.2 billion, and the company reiterated that AI-related demand remains strong. The significance of this set of information goes beyond just a single company exceeding expectations—it reaffirms what the market cares about most: AI capital expenditure has not significantly cooled, and the earnings logic of tech leaders continues to hold. On the trading side, heavyweight tech stocks remain the key driver of index gains.

3. Initial jobless claims fell, and the soft-landing narrative has not yet been disrupted

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time last week dropped to 207,000, continuing its decline from the previous figure, showing that the labor market has not yet shown significant loosening. Although the number of continuing claims increased somewhat, the overall data is still insufficient to shift the trading logic back to recession fears. For the equity market, this kind of data serves more to stabilize expectations in the sense of “no new disruptive factors,” allowing the market to continue focusing on earnings season and profit recovery rather than being forced into full defense mode.

II. Major Trends

The structural characteristics of this round of the rally remain distinct. Over a two-week period, QQQ rose by 9.49%, significantly outperforming DIA’s 4.42%, indicating that when capital seeks to mitigate risk, it prioritizes tech-heavy stocks over traditional blue chips. Over a three-month horizon, QQQ gained 3.22%, while DIA declined by 1.24%, also demonstrating that the tech sector maintains a relative advantage in the medium term. In terms of breadth, SPY rose 6.99% over two weeks, whereas RSP increased only by 3.91%, suggesting that this recovery was not comprehensive but led by large-cap core assets. Furthermore, MAGS surged 12.08% over two weeks, while XMAG climbed 4.79%, reflecting that leading tech stocks exhibited significantly higher elasticity compared to broader tech assets. In other words, the market appears to be raising valuations in the direction of “stronger earnings certainty, better liquidity, and more concentrated narratives” rather than entering a fully balanced upward phase.

III. Market Sentiment

Sentiment continues to lean positive, but there remains some room before reaching excessive optimism. The VIX fell to 17.94, declining by 1.27% from the previous day, indicating that demand for protective hedging continues to decrease. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index rose from 58 to 62, reflecting that subjective risk appetite has further returned to a more positive range. At the options level, the Cboe total Put/Call ratio stood at 0.62 at the close, with the index options Put/Call ratio at 0.72, showing that capital has not significantly increased defensive positioning. Taken together, these three indicators suggest that the market is still willing to maintain risk exposure, though tolerance for geopolitical developments and earnings results remains limited.

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs

Among major index ETFs, QQQ rose by 0.48%, continuing to lead the pack, while DIA gained 0.19%. Although it also closed in positive territory, its momentum was noticeably weaker. This indicates that Thursday did not see traditional heavyweights take the lead; instead, tech-related assets continued to provide higher elasticity at the index level.

2. Sector Performance

Differentiation persists within sectors. The energy sector rose by 1.47%, continuing to benefit from high oil prices and unresolved supply risks in the Middle East. The communication services sector increased by 1.25%, while the tech sector climbed by 1.14%, collectively reflecting that capital is still positioning around growth and heavyweight themes. In contrast, the healthcare sector fell by 0.79%, making it the weakest performer of the day, demonstrating that during a phase of improving risk appetite, certain defensive sectors are more likely to be temporarily set aside by investors.

3. Seven tech giants

Not all of the seven major tech companies moved in unison. Microsoft rose by 2.20%, becoming the strongest performer in the group as the market assigned more positive pricing to its AI-related narratives and earnings expectations. Apple, however, fell by 1.14%, placing it in a relatively lagging position. This combination shows that capital is more inclined to concentrate in leaders that align closely with the current main theme, rather than treating all large-cap tech stocks equally.

4. Chinese Equities

Chinese concept stocks generally strengthened, with Alibaba rising 3.98%, Baidu climbing 3.38%, Tencent Music gaining 2.73%, NetEase increasing by 2.17%, while JD.com fell 0.44%. Structurally, this appears to be tactical rebounding amid a backdrop of improved risk appetite, rather than a coordinated surge driven by a single policy or industry catalyst. Therefore, this trend can be more aptly defined as a return flow after sentiment improvement, but should not yet be characterized as “a new round of uniformly driven gains.”

5. Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrency itself showed muted performance, with Bitcoin dipping slightly by 0.13%, but related concept stocks diverged significantly. MARA surged 10.32%, markedly outperforming the price of Bitcoin itself, signaling that the market is more focused on revaluing its transition from pure mining to AI and computing infrastructure. RIOT, on the other hand, fell 2.87%, failing to benefit synchronously. This means that the volatility in the current crypto chain reflects more the divergence in company narratives and valuations rather than simply tracking the single variable of Bitcoin.

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