[HK Stocks Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, MicroPort Robotics, JD.com, RemeGen, HSBC - Post-market analysis on April 15

After a short-term rebound and approaching the resistance zone, both bulls and bears are waiting for direction. Next week, we will first look at whether the 26,100-point level can stabilize.

The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,947 points, with today's high (on the 15th) at 26,116 points and low at 25,948 points. The recent trend reflects a recovery pattern after bouncing from the lows. The index previously tested 24,203 points before gradually stabilizing and has recently reclaimed its position above the 5-day, 10-day, and 250-day moving averages, reflecting an improved short-term sentiment and stronger support at lower levels. The most noteworthy point now is that the index has shifted from its earlier weak downtrend to re-challenging medium- and short-term resistance zones. The overall structure is no longer a one-sided sharp decline, but it is not yet sufficient to confirm a full transition to strength.

In terms of moving averages and structure, upward pressure has not yet fully eased. The 20-day moving average around 25,403 points has been reclaimed, which is a positive signal for short-term trends. However, the 60-day moving average near 26,185 points remains ahead, and today’s high of 26,116 points is very close to this level, showing that significant resistance is emerging between 26,100 and 26,200 points. In other words, the Hang Seng Index is currently rebounding to a key tug-of-war range and has not completed a breakout. If it can stabilize above 26,100 points and break through 26,200 points, the rebound may extend further upwards; otherwise, this movement should still be considered as part of a corrective rebound.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the central axis around 25,403 points has been regained, which is favorable for the continuation of the short-term rebound. This also indicates that the recent trend has shifted from a weaker state near the lower band to a more neutral consolidation leaning towards strength. However, the upper band near 26,358 points has not yet been touched, meaning the range between 26,100 and 26,350 points will be a crucial resistance area for next week’s rebound. If upward momentum continues, there is still technical room for further progress; however, if pressure re-emerges before nearing the upper band, it suggests that the strength of this rebound remains limited.

In terms of momentum, the RSI has rebounded to above 60, indicating short-term upward momentum in the market, but not yet at an extremely strong one-sided uptrend level. Trading volume has not shown unusual expansion, reflecting that investor sentiment remains cautious. The current market appears more like a recovery phase rather than a full trend reversal. Short-term support is first seen at 25,800 points, followed by around 25,500 points, and then the 25,200 to 25,220 point region which the market pays close attention to. Resistance is first seen at 26,100 to 26,200 points, and then around 26,350 points. The real watershed at this stage is whether the index can stabilize above 26,100 points on the upside, and whether it will fall below 25,500 points again on the downside.

For investors choosing bullish warrants overnight, with a stop-loss set at 25,508 points, this type of strategy represents an aggressive short-term rebound approach. Given that the Hang Seng Index has indeed stabilized from its recent lows and reclaimed multiple short-term moving averages, betting on a rebound does have some basis in terms of direction. However, the stop-loss level at 25,508 points is already quite close to the current key short-term support zone. If early next week there’s just a regular pullback rather than a renewed downturn, such bullish warrants could still face significant pressure. Therefore, this strategy suits investors expecting the market to quickly break through resistance rather than those anticipating a slow, gradual rise.

As for bearish investors choosing bear warrants overnight with a stop-loss at 26,450 points, this logic also holds, as 26,100 to 26,350 points itself forms a clear resistance zone. If one believes this rally is merely a technical rebound, deploying bearish warrants near the resistance zone is reasonable. But similarly, note that 26,450 points is not far from the current level, and if the Hang Seng Index rises further towards the upper Bollinger Band, the bear warrant could be quickly recalled. Hence, this kind of deployment is essentially short-term betting on a pullback rather than a long-term defensive bear position.

As for investors who believe that next week there may be another test of the 250-day moving average, or are concerned that nearby bull warrants at 25,200 points might get triggered, this view deserves caution. Although the Hang Seng Index has stabilized now, the mid-term trend hasn’t fully escaped a weak framework. As long as the 26,100 to 26,200 range isn't broken through, it's entirely possible for the index to retreat and test 25,500 points, or even drop further to 25,200 points. Especially since the 25,200 area is considered an important defense line; if breached, it would significantly reduce the technical significance of this rebound, making nearby bull warrants much riskier.

Overall, the current Hang Seng Index isn’t simply bullish or bearish but is instead at a crossroads after the rebound. Bullish warrant holders are betting on further upside following the recovery from the lows, while bearish warrant holders are wagering on another rejection near the resistance zone. What’s most worth watching next week is whether the 26,100-point level can hold and move higher, along with whether the 25,500-point and 25,200-point levels can be defended. Until there is a clear breakout, the market will likely remain range-bound, with at-the-money bull and bear warrants suitable only for short-term strategies, not as tools for medium-term directional bets.

2. Alibaba’s short-term rebound is approaching the 130 yuan mark; tomorrow’s ability to stabilize above this level will determine whether the recovery continues or faces renewed resistance.

Alibaba is currently trading at HK$128.60, with today's high at HK$131.00 and low at HK$124.50, showing a notable single-day rebound. From a technical perspective, this is part of a recovery pattern following stabilization from the lows. On the daily chart, the stock had been retreating from its previous high of HK$174.20, eventually finding significant support near HK$117.50 before gradually consolidating and rebounding. The stock price has now reclaimed positions above the 5-day line (around HK$124.94), the 10-day line (around HK$123.19), and moved above the 20-day line (around HK$125.57), indicating an improvement in short-term sentiment. At least for now, the stock is no longer in a one-sided downtrend but has entered a rebound and repair phase.

However, it’s still insufficient to confirm a full transition to strength because although the share price is nearing the 130 yuan mark, there remains extended resistance above the 30-day moving average (about 127.63 yuan) and notably at the 250-day moving average (near 136.72 yuan). Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock price has returned above the middle band (approximately 125.57 yuan), turning the short-term trend from weak to neutral-bullish. The upper band (around 136.17 yuan) is also close to the market-expected 135 yuan area, meaning prices above 135 yuan will encounter significant resistance. The RSI rising above 60 shows improving momentum, but not yet at an extreme one-sided uptrend. Short-term support is first seen at 127 to 125.5 yuan, then around 123 yuan; resistance is first seen at 130 to 131 yuan, then at 135 yuan, and finally the 136 to 140 yuan region. The key watershed at this stage is clear: whether the price can stabilize above 130 yuan. If it stabilizes and breaks above 131 yuan, the rebound may extend; if it falls back again, it should be viewed as an incomplete rebound without a breakthrough.

For investors asking if there’s hope tomorrow to reach 130 yuan, the answer is yes, but the key isn't just 'reaching it,' but whether it can sustain above it. Today’s high reached 131 yuan, showing that the market has already tested this area, but failed to create a noticeable gap. Therefore, technically, reaching above 130 yuan tomorrow isn’t difficult, but what truly matters is sustainability after breaking through. If it only briefly touches 130 yuan and then drops back, this level remains a resistance point; but if it stabilizes above 130 yuan, or even pushes towards 131 yuan, the short-term pattern will improve further.

As for optimistic investors targeting 135 to 140 yuan tomorrow, this view is relatively aggressive at this stage. Reaching 135 yuan isn’t impossible, as it roughly aligns with the upper Bollinger Band and the rebound’s extended target. If market sentiment strengthens further, testing 135 yuan within a few days is plausible. But expecting a direct jump to 135 to 140 yuan tomorrow requires a very large single-day increase, which needs exceptionally strong catalysts and shouldn't be considered a base case. For 140 yuan, it’s beyond the natural rhythm of a short-term recovery unless very strong breakout signals follow, so it’s best not to be overly eager at this stage.

For investors holding call warrants with a strike price of 145.1 yuan, the most important thing to watch right now is not the distant target but whether the stock price can first recover the resistance zone between 130 yuan and 131 yuan. Since the 145.1 yuan strike price itself is not close to the current price, if the underlying stock only slowly rebounds from around 128 yuan, the performance of the call warrants may not be immediately ideal. Especially when the underlying stock has yet to break out of its rebound pattern and has not entered a clear breakout phase, time decay and changes in implied volatility could both affect the product's performance. In other words, these call warrants are more suitable to hold when the underlying stock shows a clear upward breakout rather than expecting significant gains simply because it’s 'close to the resistance level.'

Overall, Alibaba’s short-term outlook has indeed improved significantly compared to before, and 130 yuan is undoubtedly the most critical psychological and technical threshold at the moment. For bullish investors, the ideal scenario would be for the stock to first stabilize above 130 yuan, then challenge 131 yuan, after which there would be grounds to raise the rebound target to around 135 yuan. However, if the stock fails to hold above 130 yuan, this round would still be considered a mere recovery from a low point, insufficient to support the market pushing the target to 140 yuan all at once. At this stage, a more reasonable view is to first see if the stock can break through and stabilize above 130 yuan before deciding whether there is justification to further raise expectations.

3. MicroPort Robotics has clearly strengthened in the short term and is currently advancing along an upward trajectory, but 37 yuan remains the next key challenge target.

MicroPort Robotics is currently trading at 32.46 yuan, with today’s high at 32.50 yuan and the low at 30.24 yuan, showing significant daily gains. The trend has shifted from earlier consolidation at lower levels to forming a strong rebound pattern that continues to push higher. From a daily chart perspective, after testing near 22.18 yuan, the stock bottomed out and began to recover, recently not only raising its lows consecutively but also steadily reclaiming lost ground. It has now stabilized above the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, even breaking above the 120-day line, reflecting clear improvements in both short- and medium-term structures. Based on the current pattern alone, this is no longer just a typical technical rebound but is beginning to take shape as a clearer upward trajectory.

However, although the structure has clearly improved, it may not be appropriate to assume a straight upward trajectory without resistance at this stage. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock price has approached the upper band around HK$30.85 and extended further upwards, signaling strong short-term momentum. But this also suggests that the stock is entering a rapid upward thrust phase, where if subsequent buying doesn’t follow through, there could be volatility at higher levels. The RSI has risen above 80, indicating overbought conditions, meaning while momentum is very strong, caution is warranted when chasing higher, as fluctuations typically increase closer to the end of a sharp rally. Short-term support first rests at HK$30.60–30.00, followed by around HK$28.70. Resistance is seen first at HK$32.50, then HK$33.50, and if broken, the next target would be the HK$35–37 range. The critical turning point now is whether the stock can hold firm above HK$30 and convert HK$32.50 into a new breakout level.

For investors asking whether the stock has already entered an upward trajectory, technically speaking, there are signs that suggest it has begun to do so, and this is not forced. The stock isn’t just experiencing a one-day surge but has been consistently advancing in a wave-like pattern where each high surpasses the previous one, simultaneously reclaiming multiple short- and medium-term moving averages. This trend suggests more sustainability than a simple oversold rebound. Therefore, from a structural perspective, it is reasonable to consider that the stock has entered the early stages of an upward trajectory. However, this trajectory is currently steep, indicating that while the short-term rise is fast, it is more likely to experience upward movement accompanied by fluctuations rather than a straight-line daily surge.

As for whether the stock will challenge 37 yuan, this target is not impossible but should not be interpreted as something that must happen in the short term. Based on the current technical position, 32.50 yuan represents the immediate intraday high and short-term resistance. If the stock can first stabilize above this level, the next reasonable step would be to look at the range between 33.50 yuan and 35 yuan. Further judgment on whether the target can be extended to 37 yuan would depend on volume and buying strength. In other words, 37 yuan can be seen as a potential target for the extension of this uptrend, provided that the stock doesn’t quickly fall back below 30 yuan, which would disrupt the upward rhythm.

For investors holding call warrants with a strike price of 38.22 yuan, the most crucial factor to watch right now is whether the underlying stock can maintain this strong upward momentum rather than focusing solely on how attractive a higher target might be. A strike price of 38.22 yuan is relatively out-of-the-money, meaning that if the underlying stock merely rises to between 33 yuan and 35 yuan, while the warrants may benefit from the correct directional move, they may not show optimal explosive performance. These products typically rely more on the underlying stock’s ability to continue rising rapidly or on the market’s heightened expectations for future performance. Otherwise, even if the direction is correct, the product’s performance may not be as strong as anticipated. Therefore, if the underlying stock can remain above 30 yuan and gradually approach 35 yuan, these call warrants will have more room to perform. If the upward trend transitions to sideways movement at higher levels, it’s important to note that time decay will begin to increase.

Overall, MicroPort Robotics’ technical picture has clearly improved and can be considered as entering an upward trajectory. However, due to the rapid recent rise, it has also entered a region more prone to fluctuations. For bullish investors, the priority isn’t blindly chasing 37 yuan but observing whether the stock can first break through 32.50 yuan and hold above 30 yuan. As long as this rhythm isn’t disrupted, the upward trend still has room to gradually expand. But if the stock quickly comes under pressure and retreats from higher levels, it’s important to guard against transitioning from a strong upward push to consolidation at elevated levels.

After a strong short-term breakout, JD.com is approaching medium-term resistance. The stock has not yet reached the breakeven level of 135 yuan, but its current trend has evolved from a rebound to a stronger upward movement.

JD.com is currently trading at 120.70 yuan, with an intraday high of 124.30 yuan and a low of 120.50 yuan, showing significant daily gains. The price action has recovered from earlier lows and developed into a stronger upward correction pattern. From a daily chart perspective, the stock previously tested near 91.99 yuan before gradually stabilizing. Recently, it has consecutively reclaimed the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, indicating that both short- and medium-term sentiment have significantly improved. The stock price has now also broken above the 120-day moving average around 110.44 yuan, signaling this is no longer just a regular technical rebound but a clear sign of strengthening momentum.

However, despite the obvious improvement in trend, there are still pressures at this stage. The most important resistance levels are now near 124.30 yuan, as well as the 125 to 128 yuan range further above; beyond that lies the 135 yuan level that investors are watching. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band around 109.37 yuan has been clearly reclaimed, while the price has now surged above the upper band at approximately 117.49 yuan, reflecting a strong short-term trend but also suggesting that the rally has become somewhat overheated. The RSI has risen close to 90, indicating overbought conditions, which implies strong momentum but also suggests potential volatility at higher levels. Immediate support is seen at 118.80 yuan, followed by 115 to 112.80 yuan; resistance levels are first at 124.30 yuan, then 125 to 128 yuan. If these are breached, the next target would be 135 yuan. The key turning point now is whether the price can hold above 118.80 yuan and transform 124.30 yuan into a sustainable breakout level.

For investors asking whether they should sell now since their breakeven point is at 135 yuan, the core issue isn't about immediately exiting the position or stubbornly waiting to break even. Instead, it's essential to understand the nature of the current upward movement. Based on the technical picture, JD.com doesn’t resemble a typical weak rebound followed by another decline. Instead, the structure has clearly improved, and there is room for further upside in the short term. Therefore, if one exits completely near 120 yuan simply because the price hasn't reached 135 yuan, it may not be the most ideal timing. However, it must also be acknowledged that the stock has surged quite rapidly, with the RSI being overbought. There’s still some distance to 135 yuan, and intermediate resistances like 124.30 yuan and 125 to 128 yuan need to be overcome. Thus, investors with heavy positions or those who have held on for a long time might consider reducing their holdings partially at these levels and keeping some exposure to observe whether the price can advance toward 125 to 128 yuan. This approach would be more reasonable than solely relying on whether one has recouped losses to make decisions.

As for investors holding call warrants with a strike price of 126.98 yuan, this strike price falls within the range slightly above the current level, theoretically offering better chances to benefit from further upward movements in the underlying stock compared to deeply out-of-the-money call warrants. The challenge is that although the underlying stock remains strong, it has entered an overheated zone in the short term. If it can successfully break through 124.30 yuan and push toward the 125 to 128 yuan range, these call warrants could still see upside potential. However, if the stock starts consolidating or pulls back, the warrant performance might not fully align with the stock’s rise due to noticeable time decay. Hence, these call warrants are currently more suited for observing whether the underlying stock can continue its breakout momentum rather than being held based purely on optimistic expectations for 135 yuan.

Overall, JD.com’s trend has clearly strengthened, providing technical grounds for further upward challenges. However, the rapid surge also increases the risk of short-term volatility. For investors needing 135 yuan to break even, this might not be the worst exit point, nor does it mean no action should be taken just because they haven't reached breakeven. A practical approach would be to monitor whether the stock can stabilize above 118.80 yuan and break through 124.30 yuan. If successful, the subsequent targets could extend to 128 yuan or higher levels. If the breakout fails and prices retreat, caution should be exercised as this strong upward movement might enter a consolidation phase.

After a strong breakout, Rongchang Bio has hit a new multi-period high. Market sentiment in the innovative drug sector is heating up, but 149 yuan remains a later-stage target. First, we need to see if the stock can stabilize between 118 and 120 yuan.

Rongchang Bio is currently trading at 118.30 yuan, with an intraday high of 119.10 yuan and a low of 108.40 yuan, showing noticeable daily gains. In terms of daily trends, this represents an acceleration phase within a medium-term uptrend. Structurally, the stock had previously tested near 69.70 yuan before gradually building a bottom and recovering upwards in a higher-high pattern. More recently, it has consistently stabilized above the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, 120-day, and 250-day moving averages, reflecting a clear strengthening in both short- and medium-term trends. With the price now approaching previous highs, this move is no longer a simple rebound but a very clear strong upward trend.

However, despite the strong trend, the stock is entering an extended high-price area where chasing the price cannot ignore volatility risks. Concerning the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is around 100.09 yuan, and the stock has now risen near the upper band at approximately 118.89 yuan, reflecting dominant buying pressure in the short term but also showing that the price is nearing the top of the channel. If continuous capital inflows do not follow, high-level fluctuations may occur easily. The RSI has risen above 70, entering an overbought and strong zone, indicating that momentum persists but the pace has shifted from steady rises to sharper moves. Immediate support is seen at 114.50 to 110 yuan, followed by around 106 yuan; resistance levels are first at 119.10 yuan, then around 124 yuan. If these are broken, further advances to higher levels could follow. The real turning point now is whether the 118 to 120 yuan range can transition from resistance to a stable zone.

Investors leaning towards optimism, believing that the innovative drug sector is poised for another round of activity, aren't doing so without basis. Rongchang Bio’s chart has indeed shown a clear strengthening, and recently it has exhibited accelerating moves characteristic of leading stocks during sector-wide rallies. During such times, these types of stocks often become focal points for capital. From a technical perspective, the market is reassessing the stock under the lens of a sector-wide rally, which has a certain foundation. However, it’s important to note that while sector sentiment can support valuation expansion and chasing behavior, individual stocks still need to overcome hurdles step by step. Just because the market is discussing innovative drugs doesn't mean all lofty targets will be achieved quickly.

As for investors who believe that the target price for this round is 149 yuan, or even breaking new highs, the direction can be seen as a moderately optimistic mid-term scenario. However, in terms of short-term technical rhythm, 149 yuan is still a later-stage target, not an immediate expectation for the next few days. Although the stock price is strong at present, it has just risen to around 118 to 120 yuan. The first thing to assess is whether it can stabilize at this high level and then continue to rise towards 124 yuan or even higher. If these levels are gradually reclaimed, the market will naturally start to shift its sights to further targets; but if significant fluctuations occur near the current price, then 149 yuan should only be regarded as an optimistic scenario rather than a short-term guaranteed target.

Overall, Rongchang Bio's current trend is indeed on the stronger side. If the innovative drug sector continues to attract capital inflows, the stock price still has the potential to push higher, and the bullish outlook is not without basis. However, a truly healthy upward trend usually doesn’t rise in a straight line every day, but follows a rhythm of breakthrough, consolidation, and another breakthrough. Therefore, what is more worth observing at this stage is not rushing to determine whether 149 yuan will definitely be reached, but first seeing if the price can stabilize between 118 and 120 yuan, and then assessing whether there are conditions to open up further upside space.

6. HSBC is once again showing strength as it approaches previous highs; prices between 135 and 137 yuan may not be easily seen again. The short-term focus now shifts to whether it can stabilize above 140 yuan.

HSBC is currently trading at 141.40 yuan, with today’s high at 142.70 yuan and low at 141.00 yuan. The overall trend reflects a pattern of consolidation at high levels before pushing higher again. From the daily chart structure, the stock price previously rose to around 144.40 yuan, then pulled back to about 118.50 yuan before finding support. Afterward, it gradually recovered, and recently managed to stay above key moving averages such as the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day lines, indicating that the medium- to short-term structure has turned bullish again. The stock price is not only back to high levels but also very close to the previous peak, suggesting that market participants are still willing to buy at these elevated levels. This move is not a weak rebound but rather a consolidation followed by another attempt to test the top.

However, although the trend remains strong, the stock has started entering a more sensitive resistance zone in the short term. In terms of the Bollinger Bands, the middle band at around 129.54 yuan has been clearly reclaimed, and the stock price is now very close to the upper band at approximately 143.70 yuan. This indicates that buying pressure is dominating in the short term, but also reflects that the current price is nearing the upper boundary of the channel. If further upside momentum fails to materialize, a period of consolidation at high levels might follow. The RSI has climbed above 80, signaling an overheated level, which suggests that while the uptrend is strong, traders need to pay attention to the pace when chasing higher, as profit-taking becomes more likely the closer the price gets to previous highs. Short-term support is first seen at 140 yuan, followed by 137 to 135 yuan. Immediate resistance lies at 142.70 yuan, and then the previous high at 144.40 yuan. A break above these levels would provide room for further upside expansion. The key turning point now is whether the stock can hold above 140 yuan and further break through the 142.70 to 144.40 yuan range.

For investors asking if there’s still a chance to enter between 135 and 137 yuan, technically speaking, this range isn't impossible to revisit, but it’s no longer the most basic short-term scenario. The stock price has already risen above 141 yuan, with both the 5-day and 10-day moving averages having shifted higher, reflecting continued strength in the short-term rhythm. If market sentiment remains stable, the stock is more likely to fluctuate around 140 yuan or even retest resistance between 142.70 and 144.40 yuan, instead of immediately retreating deeply to the 135–137 yuan range. Therefore, waiting to enter at 135–137 yuan essentially means waiting for a noticeable pullback. While this isn’t impossible, it would require the stock to face resistance at its previous highs or for the broader market to weaken—otherwise, waiting for such a pullback might not be easy.

As for investors who bought Calls just before 3 PM, this strategy clearly anticipates that the stock price will maintain its late-session strength and possibly challenge previous highs again. From a technical perspective, this directional bias is not without merit, as HSBC has indeed been consolidating strongly at high levels and then resuming its upward push, with its technical setup appearing much steadier than most weak rebound stocks. However, given that the price is already close to previous highs, while upside potential remains, the risk-reward ratio in the short term is less appealing compared to earlier stages when the stock was just starting to rise from lower levels. In other words, while buying Calls may not be wrong directionally, it is now a later-stage play, and future performance will depend on whether the stock can genuinely break through 142.70 and 144.40 yuan. Otherwise, if the price merely moves sideways at high levels, the product’s performance may not align directly with the underlying stock’s movement.

Overall, HSBC remains in a relatively strong pattern. Unless the market shows clear signs of weakness, the stock has the potential to remain in the high-level trading zone in the short term. For investors hoping to enter at 135–137 yuan, this price range has now become an ideal, though potentially unlikely, pullback area. For those who have already purchased Calls, the focus going forward is whether the stock can break through 142.70 to 144.40 yuan. At this stage, rather than speculating on an immediate deep pullback, it’s more important to watch whether HSBC can transform its high-level consolidation into another breakout move.

Friendly reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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