Alibaba rebounds over 12% from its recent lows, but a medium to long-term reversal still awaits a breakthrough at key levels

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$After hitting a phase low of 117.5 yuan in mid-to-late March, the price gradually rebounded, with the current price rising back to 131.9 yuan. The phase rebound has exceeded 12%, breaking away from the previous downward channel. The stock price has successfully stabilized above the three short-term moving averages MA5, MA10, and MA20, forming a bullish alignment in the short-term moving averages, reflecting that short-term bullish forces are temporarily dominant. However, medium- to long-term moving averages such as MA120 and MA250 are still trending downward, and the current price is still below the annual line (MA250: 136.84 yuan), indicating that the medium- to long-term downtrend has not completely reversed. From a technical perspective, the stock price has recovered from the lower Bollinger Band area to near the middle band, with the Bollinger Bands beginning to flatten after contraction, showing that downside momentum has been fully released and the trend has shifted from a one-sided decline to a consolidation and recovery phase.

Alibaba's immediate support level is at 125 yuan, with the next level of support at 122.50 yuan; 131 yuan is the short-term critical inflection point, while the 135-137 yuan range represents strong resistance. In other words, the current price is in the upper-middle part of the oscillation range, leaving some upward potential, but resistance is also quite evident. If the stock price can stabilize above 131 yuan, there may be an opportunity for the recovery trend to continue, potentially testing the 135-137 yuan range. Conversely, if it fails to break through this resistance, the stock is more likely to maintain a consolidating movement after the rebound, making it difficult to directly transition into a strong upward trend.

For the more optimistic view, @@23587988For a more optimistic view, @、@NoSleepBigTrader、@HappyDrumming are looking at the 130-135 yuan range, while @ILoveLeiJun 9992 QQQ even directly targets 140 yuan. These targets are not entirely unconditional, but technically, the stock cannot simply leap over the 131-yuan hurdle. Although Alibaba appears to be stabilizing now, whether it can move higher in the short term still depends on whether 131 yuan can be effectively broken through. If it fails to firmly surpass this level, 135 yuan or even 140 yuan will remain expectations rather than confirmed targets based on the current trend.

@Faint Blue Moonlight, @@每天賺點買菜錢@HeartbrokenBlueMoonlight、@、@SuperRichBigWinner、@StockTraderJiaJia(167) all feel that Alibaba shows resilience in a relatively weak market, which aligns closely with the current chart. The fact that the stock price has managed to stabilize again above the short-term moving average after retracing does reflect improved underlying support compared to earlier. However, resilience does not equate to complete strength yet, and at this stage, we can only say that it's an initial stabilization within a recovery process, not that it has fully escaped the intermediate-term weakness framework.

As for @HandHandRose, @asa978, @@AnotherTrade、@@一本萬利Comments of this kind all focus on one phenomenon: the stock price repeatedly fluctuating around HKD 129, as if there is capital support while some news has yet to be released. This feeling is very common in recovery stocks because when the price approaches resistance levels, the market often sees bargain hunting, short-term profit-taking, and wait-and-see trading simultaneously, thus creating a 'can't fall, can't break through' deadlock. This precisely indicates that the key focus for Alibaba now isn't speculating about the funds behind it but whether HKD 131 can truly open up space.

@LostBookBoy mentioned whether it's the usual pattern of rising early in the morning and then declining throughout the day; @RedHorseBearSheep believes the story isn’t over and volatility will continue; @26774027 also thinks the bottom will remain volatile. From a technical perspective, these views are quite reasonable since Alibaba is still in a rebound-recovery phase, which naturally leads to fluctuations before resistance levels. In other words, the current situation resembles an oscillation period within the recovery process, rather than having entered a strong unilateral uptrend.

Regarding bearish opinions, @HengShengScreenshot sees HKD 125, @AliEmployeeBullishOnAli believes it’s forming an M-top decline pattern, @@雙層芝士牛肉漢堡Feels like a bullish trap, and @CalmAndPeaceful2025 has already exited to wait for lower levels. These concerns aren't entirely baseless. If the stock price fails to break through HKD 131 and drops below HKD 125 again, this round of recovery could easily be deemed a failed rebound, with retesting HKD 122.50 becoming a more realistic risk. Therefore, excessive optimism at this stage isn't suitable, nor should the recovery process be directly equated with entering the main upward trend.

@32154208 says he hasn't bought at HKD 117 yet and is waiting until Friday; @YoungMasterLeopard believes the upside potential has significantly decreased but sees a possible rebound opportunity. These two perspectives actually reflect that the current price level feels somewhat awkward—it’s neither a very low position nor has it completed a breakout confirmation. Hence, whether chasing the price or waiting for lower levels, timing becomes crucial. A more reasonable approach would be either waiting for a breakout above HKD 131 to follow the trend or considering low-risk buying near a pullback to HKD 125 once stability is confirmed.

@IanRush mentioned whether the April 30 API opening is a positive factor—such themes might improve market sentiment, but for short-term trading, whether themes translate into actual upward momentum ultimately depends on price breaking through key levels. If there’s positive news but the price can’t surpass HKD 131, the market will only see it as a news-driven bounce, not a reversal of the trend. @FragrantDiscussionOldMonk said both buying and selling lead to regret, which accurately reflects the current market sentiment. The back-and-forth tug-of-war in a recovery pattern makes early directional bets uncomfortable for traders.

Overall, Alibaba remains in a rebound-recovery pattern, showing initial stabilization but without completing a trend reversal. The clearest short-term strategies revolve around three directions. First, if the price breaks through and stabilizes above HKD 131, it signals a good opportunity to go long, targeting HKD 135-137. Second, if it pulls back and stabilizes near HKD 125, using a range-bound mindset for low-risk buying with a target of bouncing back to HKD 131 is viable. Third, if it falls below HKD 125, it suggests this round of recovery may fail, and caution should be exercised for a test of HKD 122.50, shifting to a conservative stance in deployment. At this stage, the focus isn't blindly optimistic; HKD 131 remains the critical level for short-term strength, and the recovery pattern should be treated cautiously until a breakout or pullback stabilization confirms otherwise.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met, and asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated in conjunction with other information. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$

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