April 15th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, Microport Robotics,

1. After the Hang Seng Index’s short-term rebound, it is approaching a resistance zone; both bulls and bears are waiting for direction. Next week, the focus will be on whether it can stabilize above 26,100 points.

The Hang Seng Index is currently at 25,947 points, with today's high at 26,116 points and low at 25,948 points. The recent trend reflects a recovery pattern following a low-point rebound. Previously, the index tested a low of 24,203 points but gradually stabilized. Recently, it has regained its position above the 5-day, 10-day, and 250-day moving averages, indicating that short-term sentiment has improved compared to earlier, and buying power at lower levels has strengthened. What is most noteworthy now is that the index, which had been in a weak downtrend, is now challenging mid-term and short-term resistance zones. While it no longer exhibits a one-sided sharp decline, it is still insufficient to confirm an overall shift to strength.

In terms of moving averages and structure, upward pressure has not yet fully eased. The 20-day moving average around 25,403 points has been reclaimed, which is a positive signal for short-term trends. However, the 60-day moving average near 26,185 points remains ahead, and today’s high of 26,116 points is very close to this level, showing that significant resistance is emerging between 26,100 and 26,200 points. In other words, the Hang Seng Index is currently rebounding to a key tug-of-war range and has not completed a breakout. If it can stabilize above 26,100 points and break through 26,200 points, the rebound may extend further upwards; otherwise, this movement should still be considered as part of a corrective rebound.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the central axis around 25,403 points has been regained, which is favorable for the continuation of the short-term rebound. This also indicates that the recent trend has shifted from a weaker state near the lower band to a more neutral consolidation leaning towards strength. However, the upper band near 26,358 points has not yet been touched, meaning the range between 26,100 and 26,350 points will be a crucial resistance area for next week’s rebound. If upward momentum continues, there is still technical room for further progress; however, if pressure re-emerges before nearing the upper band, it suggests that the strength of this rebound remains limited.

In terms of momentum, the RSI has rebounded to above 60, indicating short-term upward momentum in the market, but not yet at an extremely strong one-sided uptrend level. Trading volume has not shown unusual expansion, reflecting that investor sentiment remains cautious. The current market appears more like a recovery phase rather than a full trend reversal. Short-term support is first seen at 25,800 points, followed by around 25,500 points, and then the 25,200 to 25,220 point region which the market pays close attention to. Resistance is first seen at 26,100 to 26,200 points, and then around 26,350 points. The real watershed at this stage is whether the index can stabilize above 26,100 points on the upside, and whether it will fall below 25,500 points again on the downside.

For investors choosing bullish warrants overnight with a stop-loss set at 25,508 points, this type of strategy belongs to an aggressive short-term rebound mindset. The Hang Seng Index has indeed stabilized from its recent lows and moved back above several short-term moving averages, so betting on a rebound is not entirely without basis. However, the stop-loss level of 25,508 points is already quite close to the key short-term support zone. If early next week there’s just a normal pullback, even if the market doesn't turn weak again, this could still place significant pressure on such bullish warrants. Thus, this approach suits investors expecting a quick breakout above resistance, rather than a gradual rise.

As for bearish investors choosing bear warrants overnight with a stop-loss at 26,450 points, this logic also holds, as 26,100 to 26,350 points itself forms a clear resistance zone. If one believes this rally is merely a technical rebound, deploying bearish warrants near the resistance zone is reasonable. But similarly, note that 26,450 points is not far from the current level, and if the Hang Seng Index rises further towards the upper Bollinger Band, the bear warrant could be quickly recalled. Hence, this kind of deployment is essentially short-term betting on a pullback rather than a long-term defensive bear position.

As for investors who believe that next week there may be another test of the 250-day moving average, or are concerned that nearby bull warrants at 25,200 points might get triggered, this view deserves caution. Although the Hang Seng Index has stabilized now, the mid-term trend hasn’t fully escaped a weak framework. As long as the 26,100 to 26,200 range isn't broken through, it's entirely possible for the index to retreat and test 25,500 points, or even drop further to 25,200 points. Especially since the 25,200 area is considered an important defense line; if breached, it would significantly reduce the technical significance of this rebound, making nearby bull warrants much riskier.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index is neither purely bullish nor purely bearish right now, but is at a crossroads after the rebound. Bull warrant holders are betting on a further extension of the low-level recovery, while bear warrant holders are betting on a pullback upon encountering resistance. The most noteworthy aspect next week remains whether 26,100 points can hold upwards, and whether 25,500 and 25,200 points can be defended. Until a clear breakout occurs, the market will likely remain in a tug-of-war state, making nearby bull and bear warrants suitable only for short-term strategies, not as medium-term directional holdings.

2. Alibaba’s short-term rebound is approaching the 130 yuan mark; tomorrow’s ability to stabilize above this level will determine whether the recovery continues or faces renewed resistance.

Alibaba is currently trading at 128.60 yuan, with today’s high at 131.00 yuan and low at 124.50 yuan, showing significant single-day rebound strength. The pattern reflects stabilization after a low-point recovery. From a daily chart perspective, the stock price had previously fallen repeatedly from a high of 174.20 yuan to around 117.50 yuan before finding noticeable support, then gradually bottoming out and rebounding. Now, the stock price has regained the 5-day moving average (around 124.94 yuan), the 10-day moving average (around 123.19 yuan), and crossed above the 20-day moving average (around 125.57 yuan). This indicates improvement in short-term sentiment, no longer representing a one-sided weak downtrend, but entering a rebound and recovery phase.

However, it’s still insufficient to confirm a full transition to strength because although the share price is nearing the 130 yuan mark, there remains extended resistance above the 30-day moving average (about 127.63 yuan) and notably at the 250-day moving average (near 136.72 yuan). Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock price has returned above the middle band (approximately 125.57 yuan), turning the short-term trend from weak to neutral-bullish. The upper band (around 136.17 yuan) is also close to the market-expected 135 yuan area, meaning prices above 135 yuan will encounter significant resistance. The RSI rising above 60 shows improving momentum, but not yet at an extreme one-sided uptrend. Short-term support is first seen at 127 to 125.5 yuan, then around 123 yuan; resistance is first seen at 130 to 131 yuan, then at 135 yuan, and finally the 136 to 140 yuan region. The key watershed at this stage is clear: whether the price can stabilize above 130 yuan. If it stabilizes and breaks above 131 yuan, the rebound may extend; if it falls back again, it should be viewed as an incomplete rebound without a breakthrough.

For investors asking if there’s hope tomorrow to reach 130 yuan, the answer is yes, but the key isn't just 'reaching it,' but whether it can sustain above it. Today’s high reached 131 yuan, showing that the market has already tested this area, but failed to create a noticeable gap. Therefore, technically, reaching above 130 yuan tomorrow isn’t difficult, but what truly matters is sustainability after breaking through. If it only briefly touches 130 yuan and then drops back, this level remains a resistance point; but if it stabilizes above 130 yuan, or even pushes towards 131 yuan, the short-term pattern will improve further.

As for optimistic investors targeting 135 to 140 yuan tomorrow, this view is relatively aggressive at this stage. Reaching 135 yuan isn’t impossible, as it roughly aligns with the upper Bollinger Band and the rebound’s extended target. If market sentiment strengthens further, testing 135 yuan within a few days is plausible. But expecting a direct jump to 135 to 140 yuan tomorrow requires a very large single-day increase, which needs exceptionally strong catalysts and shouldn't be considered a base case. For 140 yuan, it’s beyond the natural rhythm of a short-term recovery unless very strong breakout signals follow, so it’s best not to be overly eager at this stage.

For investors holding call warrants with a strike price of 145.1 yuan, the most important thing to watch right now is not the distant target but whether the stock price can first recover the resistance zone between 130 yuan and 131 yuan. Since the 145.1 yuan strike price itself is not close to the current price, if the underlying stock only slowly rebounds from around 128 yuan, the performance of the call warrants may not be immediately ideal. Especially when the underlying stock has yet to break out of its rebound pattern and has not entered a clear breakout phase, time decay and changes in implied volatility could both affect the product's performance. In other words, these call warrants are more suitable to hold when the underlying stock shows a clear upward breakout rather than expecting significant gains simply because it’s 'close to the resistance level.'

Overall, Alibaba’s short-term outlook has indeed improved significantly compared to before, and 130 yuan is undoubtedly the most critical psychological and technical threshold at the moment. For bullish investors, the ideal scenario would be for the stock to first stabilize above 130 yuan, then challenge 131 yuan, after which there would be grounds to raise the rebound target to around 135 yuan. However, if the stock fails to hold above 130 yuan, this round would still be considered a mere recovery from a low point, insufficient to support the market pushing the target to 140 yuan all at once. At this stage, a more reasonable view is to first see if the stock can break through and stabilize above 130 yuan before deciding whether there is justification to further raise expectations.

3. MicroPort Robotics has clearly strengthened in the short term and is currently advancing along an upward trajectory, but 37 yuan remains the next key challenge target.

MicroPort Robotics is currently trading at 32.46 yuan, with today’s high at 32.50 yuan and the low at 30.24 yuan, showing significant daily gains. The trend has shifted from earlier consolidation at lower levels to forming a strong rebound pattern that continues to push higher. From a daily chart perspective, after testing near 22.18 yuan, the stock bottomed out and began to recover, recently not only raising its lows consecutively but also steadily reclaiming lost ground. It has now stabilized above the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, even breaking above the 120-day line, reflecting clear improvements in both short- and medium-term structures. Based on the current pattern alone, this is no longer just a typical technical rebound but is beginning to take shape as a clearer upward trajectory.

However, although the structure has clearly improved, it may not yet be appropriate to assume that the stock will rise without resistance in a straight line. Regarding Bollinger Bands, the stock price has already approached and moved above the upper band at approximately 30.85 yuan and continues to extend upward, indicating a strong short-term trend. However, this also means that the stock is entering a phase of rapid upward movement, and if there isn’t continuous capital inflow to sustain it, there could be high-level fluctuations. The RSI has risen above 80, indicating overheating, meaning momentum is very strong, but also suggesting that short-term traders should be mindful of timing, as the closer we get to the end of a sharp rally, the greater the volatility tends to be. Short-term support lies around 30.60 yuan to 30.00 yuan, followed by 28.70 yuan; immediate resistance is at 32.50 yuan, then 33.50 yuan. If the stock can break through further, the next target zone would be 35 yuan to 37 yuan. The critical juncture now is whether the stock can hold above 30 yuan and transform 32.50 yuan into a breakout point.

For investors asking whether the stock has already entered an upward trajectory, technically speaking, there are signs that suggest it has begun to do so, and this is not forced. The stock isn’t just experiencing a one-day surge but has been consistently advancing in a wave-like pattern where each high surpasses the previous one, simultaneously reclaiming multiple short- and medium-term moving averages. This trend suggests more sustainability than a simple oversold rebound. Therefore, from a structural perspective, it is reasonable to consider that the stock has entered the early stages of an upward trajectory. However, this trajectory is currently steep, indicating that while the short-term rise is fast, it is more likely to experience upward movement accompanied by fluctuations rather than a straight-line daily surge.

As for whether the stock will challenge 37 yuan, this target is not impossible but should not be interpreted as something that must happen in the short term. Based on the current technical position, 32.50 yuan represents the immediate intraday high and short-term resistance. If the stock can first stabilize above this level, the next reasonable step would be to look at the range between 33.50 yuan and 35 yuan. Further judgment on whether the target can be extended to 37 yuan would depend on volume and buying strength. In other words, 37 yuan can be seen as a potential target for the extension of this uptrend, provided that the stock doesn’t quickly fall back below 30 yuan, which would disrupt the upward rhythm.

For investors holding call warrants with a strike price of 38.22 yuan, the most crucial factor to watch right now is whether the underlying stock can maintain this strong upward momentum rather than focusing solely on how attractive a higher target might be. A strike price of 38.22 yuan is relatively out-of-the-money, meaning that if the underlying stock merely rises to between 33 yuan and 35 yuan, while the warrants may benefit from the correct directional move, they may not show optimal explosive performance. These products typically rely more on the underlying stock’s ability to continue rising rapidly or on the market’s heightened expectations for future performance. Otherwise, even if the direction is correct, the product’s performance may not be as strong as anticipated. Therefore, if the underlying stock can remain above 30 yuan and gradually approach 35 yuan, these call warrants will have more room to perform. If the upward trend transitions to sideways movement at higher levels, it’s important to note that time decay will begin to increase.

Overall, MicroPort Robotics’ technical picture has clearly improved and can be considered as entering an upward trajectory. However, due to the rapid recent rise, it has also entered a region more prone to fluctuations. For bullish investors, the priority isn’t blindly chasing 37 yuan but observing whether the stock can first break through 32.50 yuan and hold above 30 yuan. As long as this rhythm isn’t disrupted, the upward trend still has room to gradually expand. But if the stock quickly comes under pressure and retreats from higher levels, it’s important to guard against transitioning from a strong upward push to consolidation at elevated levels.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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