The Hang Seng Index is approaching the key resistance level at 26,100 points; the rebound is still ongoing, but for now, it remains within a range-bound recovery pattern as long as it doesn’t break through.

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$The index closed at 25,947 points the previous day, and in terms of its trend, it still belongs to the upward recovery phase following the rebound from the low of 24,200 points. This round of rebound is not weak, and market sentiment has improved compared to before. However, what needs the most attention at this stage is not how optimistic market sentiment is, but whether the 26,100-point level can truly be broken through. Until it stabilizes above that level, although the index still has some rebound potential, the overall trend cannot be considered completely strong, and short-term betting value is only average.

From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index is now nearing the previous resistance zone, with noticeable pressure beginning to build above. The first support level is at 25,600 points, followed by 25,200 points; the first resistance level is at 26,100 points, followed by 26,500 points. In other words, the index isn’t entirely without upside potential, but it has reached a position where a confirmed breakout is needed. If the index can break through 26,100 points and stabilize above it, the rebound could extend further to 26,500 points; however, if it repeatedly struggles around the 26,100-point level, the short-term trend is more likely to remain range-bound rather than directly entering a new upward phase.

To @Feng Jiaheng, @@一切隨心所欲、@@越來越美好Such relatively optimistic views like those of @豐嘉恒、@ are not entirely supported by technical conditions. Levels such as 26,200 points, 26,300 points, or even 26,500 points indeed represent areas that could potentially be challenged step-by-step after breaking through 26,100 points. However, we cannot skip over the 26,100-point level and look directly at higher targets, because the market is currently testing buying interest and willingness to chase prices around this area. Premature optimism about higher levels without a confirmed breakout risks overestimating the sustainability of the current move.

@CrossingObstacles asked whether the market has peaked and whether it will fall again or rebound. This is actually the most critical question at present. From a chart perspective, there isn’t enough evidence to confirm a peak yet, as the rebound structure hasn't been completely broken; but equally, there’s no confirmation of a full recovery either, because the resistance at 26,100 points hasn’t been breached. Thus, the most objective judgment is that the index is currently in the middle of a rebound—neither too early to be pessimistic nor advisable to treat it as a one-way upward trend just yet. It should still be approached with a range-bound mindset.

@Albert3 Let the charts speak. Asked if we can choose a side or which side to lean towards, from a purely short-term technical perspective, for now, it would be better to "wait for confirmation before choosing sides." That means if the index breaks through 26,100 points and stabilizes, one could lean towards going long; if it falls below 25,600 points, then a defensive stance or even caution is needed. Being stuck in the middle region right now, prematurely taking a heavy position on either side doesn’t offer particularly good odds.

Many comments reflect that the market is quite sensitive to the performance in the closing session. @233901482, @HangHC, @kittyPuzzle, @CantBeatTheMarket are concerned about the lack of strength in the closing session, or even nearing the daily low close. Such end-of-day movements are indeed worth paying attention to, because if the index fails to maintain strength after nearing the resistance zone each time, it indicates insufficient willingness to chase highs. This is also why we shouldn’t only look at whether it surged during the day but focus on whether it can stabilize above key levels at the close.

As for @Winner99's two directions—one suggesting it will only rise with fluctuations while the other mentions a target of 24,000 points—it highlights the significant divergence in the market. The more reasonable approach is not to bet directly on extreme directions but to respect the current technical levels. As long as 25,600 points hold, there are conditions for the rebound structure to continue; but if it subsequently breaks down, the market will need to reassess whether this round of recovery has ended. In other words, this is not a position suitable for making judgments based on emotional targets but rather deploying strategies using support and resistance levels.

@UnvigintillionWealth believes it doesn’t look like a pullback but more like a bull trap followed by another drop. This concern isn’t entirely unfounded, as the index has indeed rebounded for some time and is approaching the resistance zone. If it fails to break through and reverses downward, it can easily create a sense of being trapped. However, such a judgment still requires technical confirmation, primarily by observing whether the 25,600-point support holds. As long as this support remains, it cannot yet be definitively characterized as the end of the rebound.

@MisuzuOnTheBrink mentioned waiting for a pullback to lower levels first before stabilizing and confirming before moving higher—a very prudent approach. Because one of the best strategies at present is indeed to wait for a retest near 25,600 points to stabilize before considering deploying along the trend, which offers better risk-reward than blindly chasing near resistance. @ExtinctWinfred, @FranceWatchingPierre, @duckpang, @EmptyPositionWaiting—all asking whether it’s suitable to enter the market now, buy bullish products, or even go all-in—technically speaking, restraint should be exercised, because we are not at a low point, and the breakout hasn’t completed yet, so entering heavily isn’t the optimal risk-reward position.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) is still in the middle of a rebound, the structure hasn’t broken, but the direction remains unclear. The three clearest short-term strategies remain unchanged. First, if it breaks through 26,100 points and stabilizes, this would be a favorable signal to go long, targeting 26,500 points. Second, if it retreats to around 25,600 points and stabilizes, it can be seen as an opportunity to accumulate within the range, with a target back to 26,100 points. Third, if it falls below 25,600 points, it suggests this rebound may end, and a retest of 25,200 points should be guarded against, with a defensive deployment approach. The true direction at this stage still hinges on whether 26,100 points can be effectively broken.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met, and asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated in conjunction with other information. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$

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