The next target for JD.com is between 129.8 and 134 yuan, with 112.5 yuan as the key short-term support.

JD.com (09618.HK) closed at 121.4 yuan on April 15, up 5.2%, with an intraday high of 124.3 yuan and a low of 121.2 yuan. The stock price had retreated from its previous highs but bottomed near 91.99 yuan before gradually recovering, indicating that this round of upward movement is not just a simple technical rebound but has clearly entered a continuation phase of recovery. Currently, the stock price is above the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, showing significant improvement in both short-term and medium-term structures compared to earlier periods. Overall, it has formed a rising wave pattern.

Technical Analysis

From the perspective of the moving average system, the current price is significantly higher than all short- and medium-term moving averages, which are arranged in a bullish pattern, indicating that an uptrend has initially formed. The next target is the 129.8 to 134 yuan range. In terms of downside support, the first level of support is around 114.9 yuan (near the 5-day line), and the next important support zone is between 112.50 yuan and 110.80 yuan (between the 10-day and 20-day lines). A breach of this level would signal caution regarding profit-taking after a sharp rise.

In terms of the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is approximately 111.2 yuan, the upper band is about 123.8 yuan, and the lower band is around 98.6 yuan. The current price of 121.4 yuan is very close to the upper band, reflecting that the stock is in a strong region. However, it also indicates that the upside potential in the short term is constrained by the speed of band expansion. If the upper band cannot be broken through and widened further, a consolidation or pullback towards the middle band may occur. Typically, when prices run along the upper band, it signifies a very strong trend, but retracement pressures could accumulate.

In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI is around 71, already in the overbought zone, reflecting strong short-term buying power. However, it also implies the risk of chasing higher prices is increasing. The Williams %R and Stochastic Oscillator both show overbought conditions, while the CCI indicator issues a sell signal. The ADX reflects a moderately strong trend. Multiple oscillators are giving neutral or sell signals, leading to an overall technical summary of 'sell' with a signal strength of 9. Notably, the Momentum Oscillator shows a top divergence sell signal, and the ROC indicator also suggests selling. However, the VR trading ratio and bull/bear power indicators remain on buy signals, and Ichimoku Cloud and MACD maintain their buy signals as well, with Bollinger Bands also showing a buy. Overall, there is considerable short-term overbought pressure, but the mid-term trend remains positive.

Market rumors actually reflect this divergence of sentiment quite well.@About to take offThe view that JD.com is about to break out is not unfounded because the stock price has indeed risen close to the key resistance area between 116.50 and 118.30 yuan. A further upward breakout would lead to further improvement in the technical picture.@oƋŹðś炪The question of whether there will be a big bullish breakout is also the most concerning issue in the market at present because what is most noteworthy about JD.com now is not whether it will rise another one or two yuan, but whether it can truly break through the resistance zone and upgrade the recovery trend.

On the other hand, there are also many cautious voices in the market. @利為營They believe that stocks are usually distributed when they rise sharply.@Rise to HśHśOthers are concerned about whether the current level is overbought and if they should wait for a pullback before entering. These views have some merit, as the RSI is already in a clearly overbought zone, and chasing at these levels doesn’t offer particularly attractive odds.@林林活Asking whether it's still timely to add positions now, the issue isn't that adding positions is completely impossible, but rather that adding at this point requires accepting the possibility that the stock price may consolidate at higher levels first and might not immediately resume a smooth upward trend.

As for some investors focusing on why JD.com has been performing strongly, for instance @Flame, glow, flame, torch, flame, glow, flame. mentioned other stocks falling while JD.com rose instead, @EarningQuickMoneyBehindHusband’sBack@背著老公賺快錢 described how when the Hang Seng Index rises, JD.com falls, and when the Hang Seng Index falls, JD.com rises. These comments actually reflect that the market is starting to feel that JD.com’s recent performance has somewhat deviated from its previous weak impression.@Happy Amber saying 'a bit unlike typical Chinese tech stocks,' to some extent, also expresses this sentiment. Technically speaking, this relative strength is a positive signal; it’s just that at this stage, the price has already approached a resistance zone, so further confirmation will be needed going forward.

Warrant product recommendations

Regarding call warrants, those optimistic about JD.com’s continued rebound and upward breakout can look into UBS Group-issued 23129$UBJDCOM@EC2606B.C (23129.HK)$ with an exercise price of 126.88 yuan, actual leverage of about 9.5 times, and its premium being the lowest among similar call warrants. It suits short-term strategies expecting the share price to break through 118.30 yuan and continue rising. This product offers higher leverage, making it suitable for aggressive investors, though attention should be paid to changes in implied volatility.

For put warrants, if you expect the stock price to pull back and consolidate after reaching higher levels, you can consider HSBC-issued 21128$HSJDCOM@EP2606B.P (21128.HK)$ With a strike price of 122.4 yuan, the actual leverage is about 6.5 times. Its leverage and implied volatility are relatively ideal, making it suitable for mild pullback hedging after the stock price falls below the support level of 112.50 yuan; another one issued by Bank of China is 20969. $BIJDCOM@EP2606A.P (20969.HK)$ With a strike price of 122.4 yuan, the actual leverage is approximately 5.7 times, making it the highest leverage among similar put warrants with relatively low premium, and suitable for more aggressive short positions once the downtrend is confirmed.

For bull-bear certificates, those who are optimistic may consider UBS Group’s bull certificate 55851. $UB#JDCOMRC2804F.C (55851.HK)$ With a stop-loss price of 100 yuan and an actual leverage of about 4.9 times, it has the lowest premium and higher actual leverage; Societe Generale’s bull certificate 55715. $SG#JDCOMRC2705B.C (55715.HK)$ With a stop-loss price of 100 yuan and an actual leverage of about 4.6 times, it offers the highest actual leverage and lower premium. For bearish positions, UBS Group’s bear certificate 56694. $UB#JDCOMRP2808A.P (56694.HK)$ With a stop-loss price of 136 yuan and an actual leverage of around 8 times, it has the lowest premium and is suitable for defensive deployments anticipating a failed breakout followed by a pullback. It should be noted that the risk of forced redemption in bull-bear certificates is high, requiring extra caution during operations.

Friendly Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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