Rebound or reversal? SMIC approaches the 60-yuan mark, with 56.3 yuan as the key support level
SMIC opened over 3% higher in today's morning session. As of 11:19 AM, it was trading at 60.05 yuan, up 1.90 yuan from yesterday’s close of 57.95 yuan, representing an increase of approximately 3.28%. The intraday high was 60.45 yuan and the low was 58.70 yuan, opening at 59.70 yuan. The trading volume amounted to approximately 21.9471 million shares, with a turnover of about 1.307 billion yuan. The price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 85.26 times.
After rebounding from the previous low of 49.32 yuan, the stock price has continued to recover lost ground recently, showing noticeable improvement in the short-term trend. The overall situation has shifted from a weak state after a sharp decline to a sustained rebound pattern. However, it is still insufficient to confirm that the medium-term trend has fully strengthened. Although the stock price has returned above several short-term moving averages, there remains a series of significant technical resistances yet to be overcome.
From the perspective of the moving average system, the stock price is now firmly above the 5-day line (approximately 58.50 yuan), 10-day line (approximately 56.16 yuan), and 20-day line (approximately 57.88 yuan), reflecting that short-term buying support remains intact, and the rebound trend has not been disrupted for now.However, the current price is still constrained by the 30-day line at 58.64 yuan and the 250-day line at 60.04 yuan. Beyond that, the 60-day and 120-day lines are forming medium-term pressure at higher levels. Therefore, what is most worth paying attention to now is not whether the stock price rebounds, but whether this round of rebound can truly break through the resistance zone and further evolve into a more complete upward trend.
Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is currently located at 56.38 yuan, the upper band at 63.84 yuan, and the lower band at 48.91 yuan. The current price has stabilized above the middle band, indicating that the stock price has moved from a previously weaker zone to a more favorable rebound range. This shows that short-term sentiment has indeed improved and is not overheated yet since the stock price hasn’t approached the upper band, implying there is theoretically room for further extension of the rebound. However, if the stock price fails to stabilize above the middle band later on, it would indicate that the stability of this rebound is beginning to decline, and the market will refocus on profit-taking pressure.
In terms of momentum, the RSI is approximately 61.71, which has entered a relatively strong region but is not yet at an overheated level, reflecting that buying power remains present. However, as the price moves closer to the resistance zone, the attractiveness of chasing gains will gradually decrease. In terms of trading volume, recent rebounds have maintained active turnover, indicating that funds are showing some interest in the uptick from lower levels, though no strong continuous breakout signals have emerged. Thus, the current stage appears to be an orderly recovery rather than entering a one-sided sharp rise.
Different views in the market actually reflect the core contradictions of the current trend.@SMIC NiuNiuReminder that it's not yet time to buy, mentioning factors such as unfilled gaps, reducing positions, and fund flows. The key point of such opinions is to remind investors not to prematurely consider a rebound as a reversal. This view has certain reference value because technically, the stock price is now approaching the resistance zone, and before an effective breakout occurs, chasing at this stage may not offer particularly attractive value. @SMIC Crab Crab@中芯蟹蟹The opinion is similar, suggesting that it might not be worthwhile to buy too early at this stage, which essentially reflects the market’s natural caution towards the resistance zone.
On the other hand,@Little BabySuggests that if positive news emerges in the afternoon, the stock price may have the opportunity to be pushed up, but it would also reinforce the resistance level in the market. This judgment closely aligns with technical analysis. The reason is simple: the closer the stock price gets to the range between 58.64 yuan and 60.04 yuan, the more the market will treat this area as a key battleground. If multiple attempts fail to break through, the resistance will naturally become more prominent. @Prosperous Golden Bull@旺仔金牛The phrase 'facing resistance but neither rising nor falling' essentially describes the most likely basic scenario at present — that is, stock prices are fluctuating before resistance, without an immediate clear direction.
As for the more bearish voices, such as @IHaveANameNow@我有名字了Focus on gap filling; @CrabDing alerts@丁蟹出沒Direct attention is given to bear certificate strategies. These views are based on one key point: although there is a rebound now, it hasn't yet reached the stage of fully eliminating downside risks. Especially if the stock price encounters resistance between HKD 58.64 and HKD 60.04 or even falls below HKD 56.30, the market will start viewing this trend as a pullback after a rebound rather than a reversal upward. As for @StakesDecideOutcome@注碼定輸贏Mentioning difficulties in unwinding positions reflects that many investors holding stocks at higher levels are still waiting for a rebound to ease pressure, which will also increase selling pressure above.
Overall, the technical judgment for SMIC at this stage remains that the rebound continues but hasn't shown full strength yet. As long as the stock price holds above HKD 56.38 to HKD 56.30, the short-term rebound pattern can be maintained, with subsequent opportunities to retest levels at HKD 58.64 and HKD 60. If it effectively breaks through HKD 60 afterward, the target could shift to around HKD 63.84, near the upper Bollinger Band region. However, before breaking through, a more reasonable approach is to follow trends without chasing highs, waiting for a pullback to stabilize before making moves, which would be more robust than directly chasing into resistance areas.
From a strategic deployment perspective, regarding @FanOfFans'@粉絲粉Question of 'will it rise or remain bearish,' the more fitting answer is that there's still room for a short-term rebound. However, before breaking HKD 60, it should still be viewed as a rebound, not prematurely regarded as a full reversal. As for@gƹ ƖAsking whether to hold or reduce positions, the key still lies in the cost basis and risk tolerance. If held from lower levels, one can use HKD 56.30 as a short-term stop-loss level while continuing observation; if the holding cost is higher, facing the critical resistance zone between HKD 58.64 and HKD 60.04, moderately reducing positions and prioritizing risk management would be a more prudent strategy.@Flame Torch Flame Light Flame Flame FlameAs for whether to buy now, the answer is that the current price is not the most ideal entry point. A more rational approach would be to wait for a pullback to around 56.3 yuan to stabilize, or wait for a breakout above 60 yuan before considering following the trend.
In summary, SMIC’s short-term trend has indeed improved compared to before. It is no longer in a purely weak downtrend but has entered a phase of continued rebound. However, the range between 58.64 yuan and 60.04 yuan remains the most important short-term resistance zone. Before an effective breakout occurs, the strategy should remain cautious. The most crucial thing now is not to pre-assume it will definitely rise or fall, but to closely monitor two key signals: the 56.30 yuan support level and the 60 yuan breakout point, then decide on the next steps.。
SMIC Warrant Recommendations
For call warrants, those optimistic about SMIC's short-term rebound may consider UBS Group-issued warrant 19350,$UB-SMIC@EC2609A.C (19350.HK)$with a strike price of 69.04 yuan and actual leverage of approximately 4.9 times, making it one of the higher-leverage options among similar products, suitable for following the trend after confirmation of a breakout. Another option issued by Bank of China, warrant 19343,$BI-SMIC@EC2609B.C (19343.HK)$also with a strike price of 69.04 yuan and actual leverage of about 5.3 times, offers the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, making it ideal for those expecting a sustained rebound while aiming to reduce volatility costs.
For put warrants, if you expect SMIC's rebound to face resistance followed by weakness, consider warrant 20792 issued by Credit Suisse,$CI-SMIC@EP2607A.P (20792.HK)$with a strike price of 52.55 yuan and actual leverage of about 6.2 times, offering the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar put warrants, making it suitable for mild hedging after a breakdown below 56 yuan. Another option from Bank of China, warrant 20088,$BI-SMIC@EP2607A.P (20088.HK)$with a strike price of 52.45 yuan and actual leverage of about 5.3 times, provides relatively good leverage and implied volatility, making it ideal for aggressive short positions after confirming a downtrend.
In terms of bull and bear certificates, those who are optimistic may consider UBS Group 56711 $UB#SMIC RC2610H.C (56711.HK)$ , with a call price of 50.5 yuan, offering an actual leverage of about 6.6 times. Its high actual leverage and low premium make it suitable for those expecting a continued rebound but unwilling to bear excessive call risk; BOC 54689 $BI#SMIC RC2612O.C (54689.HK)$ , with a call price of 51 yuan, offers an actual leverage of about 6.7 times. It has a relatively lower premium, making it suitable for more defensive rebound plays. For the bearish side, Societe Generale 62505 $SG#SMIC RP2812H.P (62505.HK)$ , with a call price of 63 yuan, provides an actual leverage of approximately 11.4 times, the highest among similar bear certificates, coupled with a lower premium, making it ideal for aggressive strategies anticipating a pullback after an expected rebound stalls; UBS Group 56097 $UB#SMIC RP2812H.P (56097.HK)$ , with a call price of 63 yuan, offers an actual leverage of about 11.8 times. It features the lowest premium and higher actual leverage, making it suitable for short-term trend-following operations after a confirmed downtrend. However, it should be noted that the forced redemption mechanism of bull and bear certificates carries higher risks, especially when trading before a rebound is confirmed.
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
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