Baidu is testing 115 yuan, approaching a key resistance zone; the sustainability of the rebound remains to be observed.
From the perspective of large-cap tech stocks, a technical rebound was generally observed on April 14th. $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$
、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Up 1.06%, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Up 0.65%, and $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ Up 0.22% all recorded gains, except for $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ which fell 1.56%.
Notably, the mid-to-long term trend for most stocks in this sector remains weak, with prices generally below MA30 and MA60, indicating that the current rise is mostly a technical rebound after overselling. Among them, Kuaishou (RSI only 27) has entered an extremely oversold zone and received a 'Strong Buy' signal, making it the stock with the clearest rebound demand in the sector. Others like Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, and Baidu itself have received 'Buy' signals, reflecting the system's overall positive view on the short-term technical rebound for this group of stocks. This implies that Baidu's rebound is not isolated but part of a broader sector attempting technical recovery; however, the strength and sustainability of its rebound still depend on whether it can effectively break through its key resistance levels.
As of 10:00 AM today (15th), Baidu's latest price was 114.80 yuan, temporarily up 3.42%. From a trend perspective, the share price had repeatedly fallen from a high of 161.20 yuan and continued to decline, recently hitting a low of 102.80 yuan before starting to gradually stabilize, now recovering to around 114 yuan, reflecting improved buying support at lower levels. At this stage, the overall situation appears closer to a mid-term bottom repair rather than a confirmed return to an upward trend.
From the moving average system perspective, Baidu's current price has moved back above the 5-day line at 109.66 yuan, the 10-day line at 108.64 yuan, and the 250-day line at 108.88 yuan, indicating that the short-term technical picture has indeed improved compared to earlier, and it is no longer in a one-sided weak downtrend. However, it remains constrained by the 20-day line at 112.49 yuan, the 30-day line at 114.67 yuan, the 60-day line at 129.27 yuan, and the 120-day line at 125.62 yuan, suggesting that medium-term pressure is still quite significant. In other words, a reasonable assessment at this point is that the share price has shifted from weakness to initial stabilization.
Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is around 112.49 yuan, the upper band is approximately 123.20 yuan, and the lower band is about 101.77 yuan. The current price of 111.10 yuan has clearly rebounded from near the lower band and is approaching the middle band again, which is a fairly important technical position as the middle band often serves as a crucial boundary for determining whether the share price transitions from weakness to stability. If the price can stabilize above the middle band at 112.49 yuan going forward, the rebound could potentially extend further toward 114.7 yuan or even higher to 118 yuan to 123.2 yuan; conversely, if it is suppressed below the middle band again, the overall trend will likely remain fluctuating in the lower-middle part of the channel, still within a range-bound recovery pattern.
In terms of momentum, the short-term RSI is around 54.7, while the medium-term RSI is approximately 45.1 and 42.6, showing that short-term momentum has improved and has returned from a weak zone to a neutral-to-strong level. This indicates that selling pressure has decreased compared to before, but buying power has not yet reached a strongly unilateral upward push. In terms of trading volume, yesterday (14th) saw about 14.6 million shares traded, aligning with the rising price, indicating a supportive price-volume relationship, meaning this rebound from near 102 yuan is not completely without volume.
Market chatter clearly reflects the current divergence regarding Baidu. @TypeVersionGordon mentioned that as long as it holds above 110.4 yuan, there is a chance for a bottoming-out and a V-shaped rebound, which is quite consistent with the current technical picture because the area near 108.5 yuan to 110 yuan is indeed the short-term defense zone for this round of recovery. As long as this area holds, the share price still retains the potential to test resistance levels.@韭中韭霸The belief that Baidu is starting to gain momentum reflects the kind of optimistic sentiment commonly seen when prices recover from lows, but to truly boost market confidence, it still depends on whether the resistance zone between 112.5 yuan and 114.7 yuan can be reclaimed.
On the other hand, there are also many conservative or even pessimistic voices in the market. @Yohole mentioned that Baidu’s presence is barely felt in the entire AI circle, while @BuyChineseStocksToRise expressed concerns based on profitability structure and valuation, reflecting market worries about Baidu that go beyond just chart patterns, including whether fundamentals and narrative capabilities are sufficient to re-attract capital.@大腦袋糊塗The comments by @！！36 more directly express the frustration and disappointment over the prolonged fluctuations in the stock price. Such sentiment may not disappear immediately in the short term, so even if there is a rebound in the stock price, it does not mean that the market will quickly change its overall perspective.
The more aggressive voices are focused on the rebound targets.@Michelle783Looking at today's surge of 14 points, @中神通王重陽 (Wang Chongyang) directly mentioned that 180 yuan is reasonable, but these targets are overly ambitious at this stage. For Baidu’s current chart, the most realistic next step is to first address the two resistance levels: 112.5 yuan (middle track) and 114.7 yuan (30-day line). Only after overcoming these resistances can one gradually look towards 118 yuan to 123 yuan. Setting excessively high targets before breaking through ignores the fact that the current situation is still within a recovery phase.
From a short-term deployment perspective, the first support level can be seen at HKD 109.50 to HKD 108.50, near the 5-day, 10-day, and 250-day moving averages; further support lies at HKD 105.80 to HKD 106.50; if it breaks below that, the next key support is at the previous low of HKD 102.80. On the resistance side, there is potential to target HKD 118 or even HKD 123.20. This indicates that Baidu is currently in the process of recovering from a low position, approaching the first resistance zone, hence the risk-reward ratio is moderately positive, but it is not suitable for aggressive chasing without caution.
Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:
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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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