The Hang Seng Index rebound continues, but the range between 26,000 and 26,200 points remains the most crucial short-term resistance zone.

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Yesterday's close was at 25,872.32 points, up 211.47 points or 0.82%. From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index is still in a rebound recovery phase following a low-point recovery, with short-term sentiment showing clear improvement compared to earlier. The index had previously dropped to around 24,203 points before gradually stabilizing, and recently it has been recovering lost ground, now firmly back above the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages. This reflects that short-term capital is becoming more active, and the technical picture has shifted from the previous weak consolidation to a phase of testing resistance as the rebound continues.

However, the market has not yet fully returned to a strong mid-term trend because the 60-day and 120-day moving averages between 26,100 and 26,200 points are still exerting significant pressure. In other words, although the Hang Seng Index has rebounded from its lows and even re-established itself above the 250-day moving average – which is certainly a positive sign for short-term sentiment – until it can decisively break above 26,100 points with substantial volume, this phase is better characterized as a rebound recovery rather than a full reversal into a one-way upward trend.

Looking at the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is approximately at 25,379 points, the upper band at 26,302 points, and the lower band at 24,456 points. With prices now back above the middle band, the index has moved out of the previous weaker zone and re-entered a more stable rebound range. Moreover, there is still room before reaching the upper band, indicating that the market has not entered an extremely overbought condition. This pattern typically suggests that the market still has the potential to test higher resistance levels, though not necessarily breaking through all at once. A more likely scenario is a gradual rise with pullbacks, incrementally testing the pressure zone between 26,000 and 26,300 points.

In terms of momentum, the RSI has shown noticeable improvement, with the short-term RSI at approximately 61.9 and the medium-term RSI rising to around 54.7 to 50.6. This indicates that short-term momentum has indeed improved, though overall, it hasn't reached excessively overheated levels. Regarding trading volume, yesterday's turnover was about HKD 236.776 billion, which complements the index's rise, suggesting that the rally isn't entirely without volume support. However, we haven't seen a definitive breakout-style surge in volume yet. Therefore, if the index approaches the 26,000 to 26,100 point range again while volume contracts, caution should be exercised as the index may face resistance once more.

Market rumors closely align with the current technical structure.@阿玛德邦 Mentioning 'as expected, 26,000,' this highlights the most central technical contradiction in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) at present: the market knows well that the 26,000-point level is an important psychological threshold, but when the index approaches it, both buyers and sellers naturally become more hesitant.@@一亿个错过的理由 Some bluntly say 'still can't break through the 26,000-point level,' and this sense of disappointment is actually a common market reaction before a resistance zone. The situation described by @AirForceOne colliding with 'up and down again for another day' very much reflects the current rhythm of the HSI because, before a breakout, high volatility itself is the most reasonable basic scenario.@

On the other hand, there are still quite a few bearish voices. @wj來仔 believes that tomorrow may open 400 points lower and continue to decline, @葡少成多又密密食三番 thinks going short will win, @@2026做空港股发大财 Some even directly regard this round of movement as a false rebound. The basis of these arguments is very clear: the HSI has not yet truly broken through the resistance zone of 26,000 to 26,200 points, so the bears still have reason to believe this is just a technical correction within the range, rather than the start of a new upward trend. @被0043割韭菜的老李 further sees a drop below 25,300 or even 25,000 points. This relatively pessimistic expectation cannot be completely ruled out at present, especially if the 25,500-point level is breached, market sentiment will significantly weaken.@

However, the bulls are not entirely without justification.@@26972900 Some believe tonight’s futures have a chance to reach 26,200 points, and tomorrow we might see levels between 26,300 and 26,500 points. @非出十三骑 also mentioned that if this is a turning point, higher levels could be seen tomorrow. These optimistic scenarios are not impossible because technically, the HSI is indeed in the middle-to-late stage of a rebound, and not yet in an extreme overbought zone. As long as the support zone between 25,800 and 25,500 points holds, the index still has the potential to test higher levels. @年华约 urging everyone to quickly buy bullish positions reflects such a short-term positive outlook, though entering near the resistance zone would obviously yield a poor risk-reward ratio.@

As for some more neutral views, such as @古哥富郎 mentioning no major negative catalysts, but instead seeing more upside than downside, this judgment is currently considered balanced. Technically, the HSI does still have conditions to extend its rebound, but at the same time, the overhead resistance is very clear. Therefore, the most reasonable attitude is to stay moderately positive without being overly aggressive. What @石頭都化辛苦古玩家 said about 'the hardest part is intraday defense against insider news' accurately reflects the current market situation since the HSI remains significantly influenced by external factors and news flow, leading to greater intraday volatility. Focusing solely on direction while ignoring the rhythm makes it easier to get shaken out.@

From a strategic perspective, the most important support area for the HSI currently lies around 25,800 points, which is close to the current price and the 5-day moving average. Further support can be found between 25,500 and 25,380 points, near the 20-day and 30-day moving averages. On the resistance side, the first key level is the psychological threshold at 26,000 points, followed by 26,100 to 26,200 points. If it can break through effectively, the next target would be around 26,300 points, near the upper Bollinger Band. In terms of risk-reward, deploying near the support level with an upside target of 26,100 to 26,300 points offers a decent short-term positive risk-return ratio. However, chasing entries near the resistance zone significantly reduces the attractiveness.@

In summary, the HSI is currently in a stronger segment of a rebound recovery, and the short-term direction still favors testing higher levels. However, the 26,000 to 26,200-point range remains a very clear resistance cluster. Before breaking through, it should still be viewed as a continuation of the rebound, not prematurely seen as a full trend reversal. The ideal approach is to hold the support, wait for confirmation, and avoid excessive aggression near the resistance zone. The key to further strengthening lies in whether it can sustainably stabilize above 26,100 points.@

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This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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