Kuaishou fell near 44 yuan, testing the previous low again; the key support level at 44.20 yuan becomes the dividing line between bulls and bears.

Kuaishou-W (01024) closed at 44.58 yuan on April 14th, with a gain of 0.09%. From a technical perspective, Kuaishou remains significantly weak. Although the stock rebounded slightly from the low of 44.62 yuan, it only reached an intraday high of 45.44 yuan, still well below the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, and remains far from medium-term averages, showing no improvement in overall medium-term trends. The RSI is approximately in the oversold region, theoretically providing conditions for a technical rebound. However, given the medium-term downtrend, the oversold condition could persist for an extended period, so it cannot be concluded that a bottom has been reached based solely on this indicator.

The Hang Seng Tech Index opened 1.37% higher on April 14, but by midday the gains narrowed to just a 0.17% rise, with the overall tech sector showing mixed performance. $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ The current price is at 4854 points. Across the board, tech stocks mostly rose, with Baidu $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ up 3.91%, Bilibili $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ up 1.55%, while Meituan $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ fell 1.79%.

Fundamentally, Kuaishou released its 2026 earnings guidance at the end of March, which was well below market expectations across the board. Advertising revenue growth slowed sharply from 12% in 2025 to around 6%, and e-commerce GMV growth also continued to decline, directly leading to a significant downward revision in valuation expectations. At the same time, the company plans to make a big bet on AI, expecting to invest approximately RMB 26 billion in building the 'Ke Ling' large model. Given the low proportion of AI revenue versus the high investment, the mismatch between input and output has also raised market concerns.

Investor Comments

The biggest focus in the market now is whether Kuaishou, which has again returned near the RMB 44 mark, is seeing some support or if it's just another weak stock consolidating before the next leg down. Regarding @ZiZiZi's@籽籽籽 series of opinions—whether it’s 'Why should it bounce,' 'No bottom in sight,' 'Don’t pretend to bounce,' or 'Prepare for another drop'—all these views are very close to the current chart sentiment. Looking at the daily structure, Kuaishou's current price is not only still below all medium- and short-term moving averages, but also remains far from the medium-term moving average. This indicates that it's not a normal pullback but that the overall medium-term trend is still weak. Therefore, any rebound at this stage, before regaining key moving averages, can only be considered a technical retracement within a weak trend rather than a clear trend reversal.

Yes@股民史丁奇 Mentioned 'the whole hand, consider adding only when you see four words,' and @MiaoMiaoSang @喵喵桑Asking questions like "Has it bottomed out already? Can we start buying?" are precisely the mindsets we need to be most cautious about. Although Kuaishou's share price has now fallen to 44 yuan—a level that may seem quite low—being low doesn't necessarily mean the decline is over. As the current chart shows, the stock is right at the recent low of 44.20 yuan. If this level can hold, there is indeed a short-term chance for some sideways trading at lower levels; but if even 44.20 yuan gives way, the next target could easily move down toward around 42 yuan, or even test even lower territory. In other words, it's not that we shouldn't pay any attention at all—it's just that we should treat this as a bet on support, rather than taking it as a confirmed bottom.

To @SuperInvincibleGreatGreatGreatFortune@超級無敵大大大大發財The so-called "no break below the support, add" approach is where discipline is truly put to the test. Technically, this strategy isn't entirely wrong—after all, the stock has yet to clearly break below the previous low of RMB 44.20. However, the key issue is that Kuaishou as a whole remains a weak performer; even if the support level hasn't been breached for now, that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will turn stronger anytime soon. At this stage, if you're using "no break below" as your entry logic, you must be prepared to reassess the entire thesis should RMB 44.20 give way.

Yes@⭐Lucky Star⭐Saying "There's really no hope left," and @AlreadySatisfiedAsLongAsIHaventLostEverything@未輸光已經滿足The recurring narrative—"foreign investors are reducing their positions, retail investors are stepping in to take over, there's no way to fight the bears, and the worst part is that the stock fails to sustain any meaningful rallies"—accurately captures the prevailing market sentiment toward Kuaishou. The real pain for Kuaishou isn't just the declines themselves; it's that the drops are sharp and decisive, while any bounces lack staying power. As the chart shows, although the share price has occasionally staged modest recoveries from its lows, each attempt to climb above HK$45 has quickly run out of steam—precisely why the market perceives Kuaishou as "unable to sustain gains."

To @VictorySagittarius@勝利人馬座Comments like "They said it wouldn't fall below 44, but now it has" perfectly illustrate a typical problem with weak stocks: support levels are not meant to be blindly trusted—they're there to be tested. Even though Kuaishou hasn't yet clearly and decisively broken below 44 yuan, the stock has repeatedly hovered around that level, indicating that this support is being steadily eroded. Generally speaking, the more often a support level is tested, the higher the risk of it eventually giving way. Right now, the most important thing isn't debating whether 44 yuan has already been completely breached; rather, we need to acknowledge that this 44-yuan level is now extremely fragile.

To @Passerby@路人Jiuliumei said, "Lucky that 45 yuan went by quickly," and @Xiao Zhuguli@小朱古力The view that 'it has broken down, big trouble' and may even fall back to a much lower position is not excessive from a technical perspective. This is because Kuaishou's daily chart has not yet shown a strong signal of stopping the decline or reversing. Oversold conditions can last for a long time, especially when the medium-term trend is still downward. One cannot solely rely on a low RSI to say that the bottom has been reached.

To @Broad-minded and Generous Dish@豁達大度菜Asking 'Is it accumulating strength,' and @The God of Speculative StocksThe somewhat optimistic argument that short sellers are bearish every day but retail investors are holding their ground can only be considered as something worth observing under current conditions, though it’s too early to say with certainty. If it truly is accumulating strength, at the very least we should see the stock price hold above 44.20 yuan, then reclaim 45.14 yuan, and further stabilize in the region between 45.26 yuan and 45.43 yuan where the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are located. Without achieving this, it would be difficult to define the current trend as consolidation before a breakout; instead, it seems more like weakness with no clear direction.

To @Rotting Sweet Potato@發爛的地瓜Looking at 44 yuan, this price level is indeed the most crucial support at the moment. From the daily chart perspective, the market is no longer discussing whether Kuaishou will quickly rebound above 50 yuan, but rather if there will be any support near 44 yuan. If this level cannot hold, the overall sentiment will worsen further. Conversely, if the area between 44.20 yuan and 44 yuan can be defended for several consecutive days, followed by a gradual recovery above 45 yuan, the market perception could shift from 'bottomless' to 'stabilizing at a low level.'

Overall, Kuaishou remains in a clearly weak structure without any real reversal yet. On the downside, first look at 44.20 yuan, then 44 yuan and around 42 yuan. On the upside, initially watch 45.14 yuan, then the range between 45.26 yuan and 45.43 yuan, and higher up is above 46 yuan. At this stage, a more reasonable assessment is: as long as 44.20 yuan doesn’t break definitively, the stock price can still be seen as weak but consolidating at a low level; however, if even this level fails to hold, the weakness will likely continue. Conversely, if it can stabilize above 45.40 yuan again, that would indicate a more significant technical rebound.

Recommended Kuaishou Warrants

For Kuaishou call warrants, those looking to take a bullish position may consider the 27764 issued by Bank of China$BIKUASO@EC2612B.C (27764.HK)$ With a strike price of 53.48 yuan, it has the lowest premium and implied volatility among call warrants, with a leverage of approximately 3.6 times, making it suitable for short-term rebound plays with a defensive preference; Credit Suisse’s 28025 $CIKUASO@EC2612A.C (28025.HK)$ With a strike price of 53.528 yuan, it offers the highest leverage among similar call warrants at about 3.5 times, while also having relatively low implied volatility, making it suitable for aggressive follow-up after confirming support above 44.20 yuan and an initial recovery.

On the bearish side, UBS 17479 $UBKUASO@EP2612A.P (17479.HK)$ With a strike price of 49.83 yuan and relatively low premium, it offers a leverage of around 2.1 times, making it suitable for mild downside hedging if Kuaishou breaks below 44.20 yuan; BOC 17484 $BIKUASO@EP2612A.P (17484.HK)$ With a strike price of 49.93 yuan, it provides the highest leverage (about 2 times) among similar put warrants, with relatively low premium, making it suitable for more aggressive short positions once the downtrend is confirmed.

For bull/bear certificates, those who are bullish can consider UBS 68647 $UB#KUASORC2609G.C (68647.HK)$ And HSBC 68932 $HS#KUASORC2701B.C (68932.HK)$ Both have a stop-loss level of 37 yuan, with leverage of approximately 4.3 times and 4.1 times respectively. Among them, UBS 68647 has the lowest premium, while HSBC 68932 offers the highest effective leverage. On the bearish side, BNP Paribas 68486 and Societe Generale 68372 both have a stop-loss level of 52 yuan, with effective leverage of 4.3 times and 5 times respectively. BNP Paribas 68486 has the highest actual leverage, while Societe Generale 68372 has the lowest premium. However, it should be noted that the risk of forced redemption in bull/bear certificates is relatively high, especially when trading on weak stocks, extra caution is required.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

149K Views