SMIC Short-term Key Levels: 56 for support, 58.2 for breakout, and 60 as the mid-term target
SMIC is currently trading at 58, with a high of 58.9 and a low of 57.85. The stock price had been on a continuous decline from 79.90, eventually finding support at 49.32. Recently, it has been gradually rebounding, returning to near the 57 level.
The main resistance above is seen at 58.20, followed by the 59.15 to 60 region, and further up, attention should be paid to the area around 62. Support below is first seen at 56.60 to 56, with key support near 54.80, and further down, attention should be given to the 53.30 and 50.50 regions.
From a technical perspective, following the rebound from lower levels, the stock price has gradually regained some of its recent losses, with both the 5-day and 10-day moving averages showing signs of recovery. However, upward pressure remains constrained by the 20-day and 30-day moving averages as well as resistance around ¥59, indicating that the current phase is still primarily one of corrective rebound rather than a full reversal of the medium-term downtrend. The short-term inflection point lies at ¥56; if the price can hold above this level and break through ¥58.20, the rally could extend further. Conversely, if it falls below ¥56 again, there is a risk that the corrective momentum will be disrupted, pushing the stock back into a weaker, range-bound consolidation pattern.
Regarding @Learning to Be Calm and Decisive@学习静心果断Ask, "Has the intraday chart reversed today?" and @HuaHongNiuNiu@華虹牛牛The view that "once stability is established, the price should break through a certain level tomorrow" actually reflects a common underlying concern: the market is watching to see whether this rebound from 49.32 yuan is merely a technical bounce following a decline, or the beginning of a more sustained recovery trend. From a daily chart perspective, the stock price has indeed shifted from a sharp downward plunge to a consolidation and corrective rally after bottoming out—meaning it is no longer in a one-way, unrelenting downtrend. However, the key issue is that strong medium-term resistance remains densely packed above, so it is still too early at this stage to declare a full-fledged shift to bullish momentum.
As the chart shows, SMIC has now regained positions above its 5-day moving average at around RMB 55.65 and its 10-day moving average at around RMB 53.89, indicating a marked improvement in short-term sentiment compared with the lows. That said, the stock still faces resistance from its 20-day moving average at about RMB 56.64, its 30-day moving average at roughly RMB 58.96, its 60-day moving average at approximately RMB 66.11, and, further up, its 120-day moving average at around RMB 68.99. This suggests that even if the short-term rebound holds, the area above RMB 58 and up to around RMB 60 will not be a clear "no-man's land" but rather a zone where upward pressure will gradually build. In other words, the most reasonable interpretation at this stage is that the correction has begun, but a definitive breakout has yet to be confirmed.
Therefore, to @Zhenzhen⋯@臻臻⋯What was said about "being unable to break through a certain resistance level," as well as @SMICCrab@中芯蟹蟹, @SMIC NiuNiu@中芯牛牛The persistent bearish rhetoric—such as "don't take delivery," "now is not the time to take delivery," and "price manipulation to lure in buyers before a short squeeze"—is by no means entirely unfounded. From a technical perspective, SMIC is indeed currently in a rather awkward position: it has rebounded considerably from its recent lows, yet it has not yet broken decisively through the key resistance level above. This kind of situation is precisely what tends to sow division in the market: bulls believe the decline has run its course and the stock will resume its upward move, while bears view it as merely a temporary pause in an ongoing downtrend.
However, looking solely at the daily chart at present, I would argue that we are currently in a corrective tug-of-war rather than an immediate breakdown. The reason is that the stock price has already rebounded from 49.32 yuan to above 57 yuan, and the RSI has also climbed back to around 58, indicating that short-term buying pressure and market sentiment have indeed improved. This suggests that, for @The clouds are light and the breeze is gentle.The concern of being "almost misled into it" is understandable, but it's not yet at the point where it should be completely avoided. The real key isn't whether emotions are fearful or not, but whether SMIC can stabilize at 57 yuan, break through 58.20 yuan, and then challenge levels between 59 to 60 yuan.
To @Let's Talk About It in Ten Years@拿个十年再说吧To @拿个十年再说吧's question, "When will it reach my hometown," the answer remains relatively pragmatic for now. From a technical perspective, even if SMIC's short-term sentiment improves, there is still some distance before fully recovering intermediate losses. If it can first stabilize above 57 yuan, then break through 58.20 yuan, only then can it gradually target the 30-day moving average near 58.96 yuan, and further challenge 60 yuan. In other words, returning home may not be entirely impossible, but what needs to be addressed now is this immediate technical resistance, rather than prematurely fantasizing about reaching higher levels.
And to @I Have a Name Now@我有名字了Regarding @我有名字了's questions, "Can it reach a certain price tomorrow?" and "Will the gap be filled?", the best current view on these short-term queries is that the stock price might have room to test higher levels, but one shouldn't assume the recovery process means the downtrend has been fully reversed. If it can hold above 56.60 yuan and break through 58.20 yuan again, the chances of recouping some upper losses increase; however, if it fails to hold 56.60 yuan, the short-term trend could easily revert to consolidation or even weakness.
To @Edge Trader@边缘交易者Regarding @边缘交易者's comment, "Retail investors have been shaken out," and @广州居民's reminder, "Don’t speak too absolutely, anything is possible," the latter’s perspective aligns more closely with the current chart status. SMIC is neither entirely strong nor entirely weak right now—it’s in an intermediate state that can improve but still needs confirmation. Being overly optimistic or pessimistic may not be the most accurate approach. What truly matters now is whether key technical levels can be reclaimed step by step, rather than relying solely on sentiment to predict a big surge or continued decline tomorrow.
To @LoveMoneyLoveMyself@愛財愛己To @愛財愛己’s remark, "Give us a lifeline, won't you?", this sentiment is quite common. Stocks like SMIC tend to be highly volatile, and during the recovery phase after a sharp drop, it often feels hopeful one day and prone to volatility the next. Currently, from a strategic standpoint, support must hold around 56.60 yuan, followed by the 5-day moving average near 55.65 yuan. If these levels fail, one should beware of profit-taking expanding again. Conversely, as long as these supports remain intact, the short-term recovery may continue.
Overall, SMIC is no longer in its worst phase of sharp decline, and a low-level recovery trend is forming. However, the range between 57 and 58.20 yuan remains the most critical confirmation zone. At this stage, a more reasonable assessment is: as long as the 56.60-yuan level holds, the recovery pattern can continue; if it can break through 58.20 yuan and reclaim 58.96 yuan, the trend may advance towards a fuller recovery, with the next target around 59 to 60 yuan.
SMIC (00981) Key Strategy: 56 yuan is the short-term repair support level. If it holds firm and then breaks through 58.20 yuan, the rebound is expected to push forward another step; if it fails to hold above 56 yuan and then 54.80 yuan, be prepared for the trend to weaken again.
27867 $UB-SMIC@EC2609B.C (27867.HK)$ | Strike Price 55.93 yuan | Actual Leverage 4.2x | Suitable for deploying when holding above 56 yuan and breaking through 58.20 yuan
27871 $HS-SMIC@EC2609B.C (27871.HK)$ | Strike Price 55.93 yuan | Actual Leverage 4.2x | Similar terms, suitable for short-term momentum trading after breaking resistance
27594 $GJ-SMIC@EC2609B.C (27594.HK)$ | Strike Price 55.93 yuan | Actual Leverage 4.1x | Balanced terms, suitable for deploying during a sustained rebound
20320 $UB-SMIC@EP2607A.P (20320.HK)$ | Strike Price 52.45 yuan | Actual Leverage 4.9x | Suitable for going bearish after failing to hold above 56 yuan
20114 $HS-SMIC@EP2607A.P (20114.HK)$ | Strike Price 52.45 yuan | Actual Leverage 5.0x | Slightly higher leverage, suitable for deploying after breaking below 54.80 yuan
20723 $HU-SMIC@EP2607A.P (20723.HK)$ | Strike Price 52.45 yuan | Actual Leverage 5.0x | Suitable for targeting further downside after failed recovery
Overall, SMIC's current stage still reflects a post-low rebound repair trend and has not yet confirmed a full strengthening phase. The key operational focus is whether the 56-yuan level can hold and whether there will be a successful breakout above 58.20 yuan. If support holds firm and an upward breakout occurs, the rebound could extend further; if the 56 to 54.80 yuan region is breached again, it would indicate insufficient repair momentum, and strategies should shift to being cautious, adopting a short-term reversal approach.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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