Alibaba rebounds from a low position; a breakout above the key level is needed to initiate a recovery trend.

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Rebounding nearly 2%, latest report at HKD 125.5, high of NT$126.80, while the low was NT$125.20. Currently holding steady near the 20-day moving average (NT$125.85).

Regarding@@23969315 Saying 'neither rising nor falling' is actually very fitting because from the daily chart, Alibaba’s most obvious characteristic now is After the drop, the price has stabilized temporarily but lacks sufficient momentum to break upward.. Although the stock price has rebounded from117.50 yuan, it is still capped above bythe 20-day and 30-day moving averages. This suggests that the current rebound appears more like a correction rather than the start of a new upward trend. In other words, the reason the market feels stagnant now isn't due to a complete lack of volatility, but because most of the fluctuations remain range-bound without forming a clear direction.

Yes@Chairman HuangweiAs Chairman @荒味 mentioned, 'seemingly strong, but in reality very weak, all illusions,' this judgment actually has some technical basis. Although Alibaba is currently holding above122 yuan, which may seem like it hasn't broken lower again, the issue lies in,Holding steady doesn't necessarily mean performing strongly. The current stock price is still significantly below the 30-day line at approximately HKD 128.72, and even higher up, the 60-day line at around HKD 144.74、and the 120-day line at approximately HKD 149.87 remain quite far, indicating that the overall medium-term structure is still relatively weak. So when you say 'outwardly stable, inwardly weak,' it's actually quite close to the current chart situation.

Yes@@不眠不休睇個市 directly pointed out that 'the trading volume is so low,' which is also the most notable aspect of Alibaba right now. Because if a stock is to transition from consolidation at a low position to a meaningful rebound, it usually requires volume support. But currently, Alibaba’s movement shows there is some rebound, but the volume isn’t particularly convincing, which makes every approach near RMB 124 to RMB 126, the market tends to worry that it is just a short-term rebound, rather than sustained buying. In other words, the issue now is not whether it rises, but the rise lacks strength。

Yes@Calm Merton mentioned 'If Alibaba fails to reach 134, there is no way to make a profit.' While this statement sounds somewhat absolute, it’s not entirely wrong in terms of direction. Because if we look at the daily chart, for Alibaba to shift from its current weak consolidation pattern to a more obvious recovery phase, it needs to achieve two steps: First, break through RMB 126 to RMB 129 this near-term moving average resistance; second, move upward to challenge RMB 134 range. Before achieving these two steps, the market will naturally feel that it’s merely dragging out time at lower levels, rather than reopening upside potential.

Yes@BugBulletFlythe WVR voting rights ratio cap is proposed to increase from 115 to 118 yuan Such waiting intervals, and @@S’ Those who have been waiting for 'a quick drop is just a false move, waiting all day'—both perspectives are essentially saying the same thing:The market still does not fully believe that the current price is the bottom. From a chart perspective, this skepticism is reasonable because, although 117.50 yuan The low has been temporarily defended, the stock price is still far from a true strengthening zone. If the range of 122 to 123 yuan is breached, the market will naturally look towards 120 yuan, and then it will return to HKD 117.5 nearby. In other words, Alibaba currently isn't lacking support, but the support isn't strong enough to reassure the market.

Yes@@我發夢自己有1億 When people say 'too many bulls between 110-120', this kind of talk actually reflects that the market is very focused on the HKD 120 psychological and chip line. Technically speaking, HKD 120 is indeed very important because it's not only close to the lower boundary after the recent rebound but also near the core level of this consolidation zone. If the share price can stay above HKD 120 , the market will tend to view this as a low-level consolidation; but if it breaks down again, the overall sentiment will quickly turn sour.

Yes@@阿胃 As for those mid-to-long-term belief-driven bullish voices, I wouldn't say they're necessarily wrong in direction, but short-term conditions still aren't aligned. Because from a fundamental expectations perspective, you can remain optimistic; but from a chart perspective, Alibaba still hasn't broken away from consolidation after a weak reboundThe big picture. This means that if holding for the medium to long term, more volatility can naturally be allowed at this time; but for short-term trading, the current price is still not a position where one can afford to be too careless.

Yes@Make Two Million, Marry a 185cm GoddessFeels like 'it hasn't fallen enough,' and@I've had my fill—give me my money back!That sense of disappointment, as in 'isn't it time to stop pretending,' actually reflects that the market is very dissatisfied with Alibaba's rebound quality. It’s not that Alibaba hasn’t rebounded recently at all—it’s just thatEvery rebound has failed to sustain, only to retreat back to where it started.This kind of price movement erodes confidence the most and makes it easiest for people to turn bearish.

Yes@26536571Comparing Alibaba with$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$Other weak tech stocks, I understand this market association, but technically Alibaba is currently slightly better than some of the weaker stocks because it has at least risen from$117.50 Rebound to near 123 yuan, and did not directly continue to hit a new low. However, this does not mean it is already safe; it simply means that at present it is in a relatively weak consolidation, but has not reached a state of complete loss of control.

From a technical standpoint, the immediate short-term support level is seen at 122.50 yuan, then at 120 yuan, followed by the recent important low 117.50 yuan. The nearest resistance is at 124.50 yuan, followed by around 126.12 yuan near the 20-day line, then around 128.72 yuan near the 30-day line; further up is the market's main focus at 134 yuan. Therefore, the clearest watershed at this stage is:The range of 120 to 123 yuan is the defensive zone, 126 to 129 yuan is the preliminary recovery confirmation zone, and 134 yuan is the key level for a significant trend reversal.

Overall, Alibaba is currently still ina weak consolidation pattern following a rebound from lower levels.。As long as the 122 to 120 yuan range holds, the stock price can be considered to be consolidating within a range; if it can further reclaim 126 to 129 yuan, the trend may have a chance to upgrade from consolidation to a more complete recovery. Conversely, if it breaks below 120 yuan, the market will once again look towards 117.50 yuan or even lower levels.

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