April 13 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part 2 - China National Building Material, Meituan, Xiaomi

4. China National Building Material (03323.HK): Investors are wondering if the stock can rebound to $6 after stabilizing at $5. Some investors hold call warrants with an exercise price of $6.24.

The most noteworthy aspect for China National Building Material right now is not just the sharp single-day rise but whether this round of rebound, following the recovery of the $5 mark, is a technical pullback or has the potential to extend to near $6. Looking at the daily chart, the latest closing price was $5.52, with nearly a 10% increase in a single day and a high of $5.65. The stock closed near its intraday high, reflecting significantly strengthened short-term buying momentum. More importantly, after previously falling to around $4.73, the stock has recently regained its footing above $5 and even broke through multiple short-term moving averages, shifting the technical outlook from weak consolidation to a more noticeable rebound recovery.

Structurally speaking, China National Building Material had previously fallen continuously from a high of $7.26, later finding support near $4.73. Recently, it has begun showing signs of stabilization and upward recovery. This indicates that the market's most pessimistic phase of decline has temporarily eased. However, it’s important to note that it cannot yet be confirmed as having fully returned to an uptrend. Although the stock has reclaimed the 5-day and 10-day moving averages and is approaching the 20-day line at about $5.20 and the 30-day line at approximately $5.55, further resistance lies ahead at the 60-day moving average near $5.58 and higher levels. Therefore, a more accurate judgment at this stage is that after a short-term rebound, the stock is entering a recovery phase rather than having completely turned strong.

In the short term, the most crucial support level remains at $5.00. This is not only a psychological threshold but also the key dividing line for whether this rebound can continue. As long as the stock stays above $5, the market will tend to view this uptrend as a repair starting from the lows; if there is a pullback afterward but it holds above $5.15 to $5.00, the overall structure can remain favorable. Further support below would be at $4.90 to $4.73. If even this range is broken, it would indicate insufficient rebound strength, and the market may return to weaker consolidation.

As for upside potential, the stock faces immediate resistance between $5.55 and $5.65. This area represents a high zone and is close to where the 30-day and 60-day moving averages converge, making it the first significant short-term resistance. If the stock can stabilize above this range over the next few days, the next target could be pushing toward $5.85 to $6.00. In other words, a rebound to $6 is possible, but it won't happen automatically just by staying above $5—it must first confirm whether it can break through and stabilize above the $5.55 to $5.65 resistance zone.

In terms of rhythm, a more reasonable projection at this time is that the stock price will continue to rebound from above 5 yuan, challenging the area near 5.6 yuan. If the breakout occurs and trading volume can keep up, market sentiment may further improve, and the chance of testing 6 yuan will significantly increase. Conversely, if the stock rises to between 5.55 yuan and 5.65 yuan but then repeatedly comes under pressure and retreats, it indicates that this upward movement is still a range-bound rebound for now, and reaching 6 yuan might not happen soon. Therefore, the current view on 6 yuan should be: there are conditions to challenge it, but confirmation near 5.6 yuan is still needed first.

From the perspective of the Bollinger Bands, the stock price has now approached the upper band at 5.86 yuan, indicating a sharp short-term upward trend with signs of entering an overbought zone. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to around 71, which is considered overheated. This typically implies two things: First, short-term sentiment has clearly improved; Second, the stock price is unlikely to rise in a straight line and may consolidate at higher levels or even pull back slightly before deciding whether to move further upward. Therefore, while one cannot be overly bearish at this point, it’s also unwise to equate the sharp rise directly with the complete opening of an upward channel.

For positions involving call warrants with a strike price of 6.24 yuan, the key focus is that these products are currently slightly out-of-the-money. Therefore, if the underlying stock only rebounds to around 5.6 yuan without further upward momentum, the product's performance might not be as promising as the surface trend suggests. The scenario most favorable for these call warrants would be if the underlying stock continues its upward trend, gradually approaching 5.85 yuan to 6.00 yuan, or even moving closer to 6.24 yuan, allowing the product to truly benefit. If the underlying stock merely holds above 5 yuan but lacks further upward momentum, the warrants will suffer from time decay. Hence, the critical factor is not just 'holding steady,' but whether it can sustain upward momentum after stabilizing.

Overall, China National Building Material's current trend has shown significant improvement. After regaining the 5-yuan level, a short-term rebound structure is forming. In the short term, we need to see if it can hold firm between 5.15 yuan and 5.00 yuan, while above, we’ll look to see if it can break through 5.55 yuan to 5.65 yuan. If it successfully breaks through and stabilizes, there will be potential for further rebound to 5.85 yuan to 6.00 yuan. Therefore, returning to 6 yuan after stabilizing at 5 yuan is not impossible, but the more immediate concern is confirming whether the stock can firmly stabilize near the resistance level of 5.6 yuan.

5. Meituan-W (03690.HK): Investors asked whether it would pull back to around 80 yuan. In the CBBC market, some investors mentioned they exited at 90 yuan and bought back bull contracts when it fell to 82 yuan, waiting for a rebound.

The most noteworthy aspect of Meituan right now is not how much it has dropped in a single day, but whether the sideways range between 86 yuan and 89 yuan after the recent rebound is simply post-rally consolidation or if it will retreat further to around 80 yuan. From the daily chart, the latest closing price was 86.45 yuan, with intraday highs at 87.10 yuan and lows at 85.30 yuan. The stock remains in the consolidation phase following the previous rally. Technically, the price has recovered significantly from the earlier low of 73.60 yuan and regained support above the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, suggesting that the trend has shifted from a weak downtrend to a recovery pattern after bottoming out.

Looking at the structure, Meituan previously fell from near 98.95 yuan and found noticeable support around 73.60 yuan, subsequently rebounding. This rebound wasn't a one-day spike but rather a gradual uptick, reflecting growing buying interest at lower levels. However, the current rebound has yet to surpass significant medium-term resistance levels above, such as the 60-day moving average at approximately 87.11 yuan, the 120-day moving average at about 93.89 yuan, and the 250-day moving average at roughly 109.70 yuan. Therefore, the most reasonable judgment now is that Meituan has moved past its weakest phase but remains in a rebound-recovery stage and has not fully regained strength.

As for whether it will pull back to around 80 yuan, the answer is: it's possible, but there are currently no definitive technical signals indicating it must fall back. The most crucial short-term support is now around 85 yuan to 84.5 yuan, a region close to the current price and also the lower boundary of the short-term consolidation area near the 5-day moving average. If the stock merely consolidates normally and holds above this zone, it would still indicate a bullish consolidation pattern. The next major support lies between 82 yuan and 80 yuan, a critical support zone since it aligns with the support formed during the previous rebound and represents a psychologically significant range where the market tends to pay renewed attention. In other words, 80 to 82 yuan is indeed a reasonable pullback target, but only if the stock first breaks below 84.5 yuan, which would deepen consolidation pressures.

In terms of upper resistance, the stock must first face the range between 87 yuan and 89 yuan. This zone is not only the recent high of the rebound but also close to the 60-day moving average, making it a naturally heavy resistance area. If the stock can regain and stabilize above 87 yuan and gradually reclaim 89 yuan, the overall pattern could evolve from a recovery phase to a further rebound, reducing expectations of another drop to around 80 yuan. Conversely, if the stock repeatedly fails to surpass 87 to 89 yuan and falls below 84.5 yuan, vigilance should increase regarding a potential pullback to 82 yuan or even 80 yuan.

From the perspective of the Bollinger Bands, the stock price is currently in the upper-middle region, showing no signs of extreme overheating. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 57, reflecting improved short-term momentum but not reaching extremely strong levels. This kind of technical condition typically suggests that the market has a foundation for a rebound, but it also retains room for repeated consolidation. It is not a stage where retracement risks can be completely ignored. Thus, the most accurate interpretation now is not that the stock will necessarily fall back quickly to 80 yuan, but that if it fails to break through 87 to 89 yuan, the stock may digest previous gains through a pullback, and 82 to 80 yuan represents a natural lower support zone.

The idea of buying bullish certificates near HK$82 for a rebound is technically not entirely unreasonable because the range between HK$82 and HK$80 represents a significant support zone. If the stock price gently pulls back to this area and finds support, the probability of a rebound would generally be more favorable than entering at the current level of around HK$86. However, the premise of such a strategy is that there should be signs of stabilization when the stock price reaches the support zone—such as a slowing decline, increased lower shadows on candlesticks, or a contraction in volume followed by a recovery—rather than mechanically entering just because the price hits HK$82. If the pullback is too rapid, or worse, if it breaks below HK$80, it would indicate a weakening of the entire rebound structure, requiring a reassessment of the initial support evaluation.

Overall, Meituan is still in a consolidation phase following a low-level rebound. The short-term outlook isn't bad, but it's also not strong enough to completely rule out a pullback. The immediate support level is at HK$84.5. If this holds, there may be further opportunities for consolidation at higher levels before testing resistance between HK$87 and HK$89. If it fails to hold, attention should shift to whether the stock will gradually pull back towards HK$82 to HK$80 in search of support. In other words, a technical scenario where the price retreats towards HK$80 is possible, but for now, the focus should be on whether HK$84.5 can hold firm and whether the resistance between HK$87 and HK$89 can be broken.

6. Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK): Market sentiment remains bearish, with investors expecting the price to fall below HK$30. Some investors continue to increase their short positions, holding bear certificates with a take-profit price of HK$36.

The most important factor to watch for Xiaomi right now isn't the magnitude of daily declines, but whether the HK$30 level can hold. This has become the most crucial short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Looking at the daily chart, the latest closing price was HK$30.60, with an intraday high of HK$30.76 and low of HK$30.26, indicating continuous narrow-range trading above HK$30. This reflects that while the market mood is negative, there is still some underlying support at this level. However, the overall technical picture remains weak, as the share price is currently below the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, showing a downward alignment of medium- and short-term trends, which indicates ongoing weak consolidation rather than stabilization.

From an overall structural perspective, Xiaomi's decline began from around HK$37.50. Although there were subsequent rebounds, the price failed to return to higher resistance zones, and recently, it has been consistently approaching the lower Bollinger Band, with a low of HK$30.26 already seen. This reflects that the market's primary concern now is not the lack of rebound strength, but whether a breakdown below HK$30 could trigger another round of downward pressure. Technically, prolonged proximity to lows without clear signs of a strong counterattack usually does not bode well for short-term sentiment. Therefore, until key resistance levels are reclaimed, the overall view should remain cautiously bearish.

In terms of short-term support, the first critical zone to watch is between HK$30.26 and HK$30.00. This is the most direct and sensitive support area at present. If the stock price can stay above this zone, although it may not immediately turn bullish, it can at least be considered consolidating at low levels, avoiding further accelerated declines. However, if HK$30 is decisively breached, it would mean both a psychological threshold and recent lows have been broken, potentially opening up further downside space. The next support level would then be near HK$29.50, followed by potential tests of HK$29 or even HK$28.80. In other words, breaking below HK$30 would not just symbolize weakness, but could shift the entire short-term structure lower.

On the resistance side, the immediate challenge for the stock price lies between HK$31.30 and HK$31.80. This zone is close to the cluster of short-term moving averages and has acted as resistance during recent rebounds. If this area cannot be reclaimed, any upward moves should only be viewed as weak pullbacks rather than true trend reversals. The next significant resistance level is near HK$32.70. If the price fails to return above this zone, the overall weak trend is unlikely to change. Hence, a reasonable assessment now is that HK$30 serves as the defense line, while HK$31.30 to HK$31.80 confirms whether a short-term rebound can materialize.

Looking at the Bollinger Bands, the stock price is nearing the lower band at HK$29.78, indicating a relatively weak short-term position, but also suggesting that it's not far from being technically oversold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 35, not extremely oversold but reflecting weak market momentum. This technical state carries two implications: First, the weakness is not over, and one shouldn't assume a strong rebound simply because the price is near the lower end; second, if the stock falls below HK$30 without triggering panic selling, it might oscillate at low levels instead of immediately plunging further. In other words, what needs to be guarded against now is a prolonged slow decline, rather than expecting an immediate sharp rebound.

Regarding bearish positions, the current direction still aligns closely with the chart structure since the stock remains below major moving averages without clear signs of strengthening. Using HK$36 as a distant risk boundary, there is still some buffer room from the current price, meaning short-term positions aren't overly tight. However, it’s important to note that the ideal scenario for such setups is not prolonged sideways movement but rather a breakdown below HK$30 leading to further downside exploration. If the price doesn't fall below HK$30 and instead stabilizes at lower levels or slowly recovers above HK$31.30 to HK$31.80, the advantage of bearish positions will start to diminish. Thus, the key to short-term success or failure remains whether the HK$30 level is decisively breached.

Overall, Xiaomi's current trend remains bearish, with HK$30 being the most crucial short-term defensive line. If it holds, the stock may merely consolidate weakly at lower levels; if it breaks down, further declines could test HK$29.50, HK$29, or even lower. Above, the stock must first reclaim HK$31.30 to HK$31.80 for the bearish trend to ease slightly. At this stage, a reasonable view isn't rushing to declare a bottom but rather watching whether HK$30 will truly break, as this will directly determine whether the future trend will involve prolonged fluctuations at lower levels or further downside exploration.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$$JD-SW (09618.HK)$$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$

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