When will Tencent's stock price break out of its weak trend? An overview of key support and resistance levels

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$The stock opened over 1% higher, currently trading at 496.84 yuan, with a high of 497.4 yuan and a low of 494.2 yuan. Regarding @CloudWukong’s question, 'When can I break even at 508 yuan?', the current answer needs to be pragmatic. Tencent hasn’t truly strengthened yet; not only is the stock price below the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages, but the 60-day line is still clearly above, indicating that the price is just fluctuating in a lower range rather than resuming an upward trend. If it can first stabilize above 500 yuan, then gradually recover the 508 to 512 yuan range, breaking even could become more feasible. Until then, 508 yuan still represents an upper resistance level for rebounds.

Regarding @OldLiWhoGotCutBy00431’s repeated emphasis on reduced buybacks leading to potential further declines and the repeated mention that 480 to 482 yuan is an important level, this direction indeed has some technical basis. From the chart, Tencent previously hit a low of 476 yuan, and although it’s still above that, if the area around 490 yuan cannot hold, the market will naturally shift focus back to 480 yuan or even 476 yuan. In other words, the most important thing now isn't guessing how low it might fall, but watching whether the range between 485 and 490 yuan holds.

Regarding @FortuneFullProsperity’s question, 'Why do share buybacks? Wouldn’t it be better to buy at lower prices than at higher ones?' as well as broader market questions about buybacks, charts directly reflect: Buybacks themselves can provide support, but they are insufficient to make the stock price break out of its weak trend. If the technical structure hasn’t improved, buybacks alone won’t immediately change the market’s view on the trend. The issue with Tencent right now isn’t the complete lack of support, but that every rebound near 500 yuan lacks sustained momentum.

Regarding @@Forever GoRegarding the question, 'What price level will be the bottom?', a more reasonable view at this stage is that the true bottom hasn’t been confirmed yet, but the 480 to 476 yuan range will be an important second line of defense. The first support level is near 487.8 to 485 yuan. If it holds, the stock price can be considered to be consolidating at a low range. If it breaks down further, the market will test 480 to 476 yuan again. This means that for now, we can only say that Tencent is near the lower range, but we can’t definitively say it has reached the bottom.

Regarding @@QgoeThe comment mentioning 'no buybacks, short-selling pressure, and aggressive selling from southbound capital,' along with another remark about how the pullback on the monthly chart feels frustrating, truly reflects the current market sentiment. The most troubling aspect of Tencent right now is not the sharp declines but rather the prolonged weakness and lack of sustained rebounds. Looking at the RSI, it’s currently around 38, which hasn’t reached a clear bullish recovery zone, suggesting that market sentiment remains weak without showing real signs of improvement.

Regarding @@12352653Regarding @'s perspective, while there is some merit in thinking Tencent still has opportunities after major drops based on its historical performance, and mentioning that AI reshuffling may not leave Tencent in the worst position, this view carries some mid-term logic. However, the short-term chart still doesn't align. For the stock to transition from weakness to stability, the first step would be to reclaim the range of HK$495 to HK$500, followed by testing HK$508 to HK$512. Until these levels are regained, any mid-term optimism can only remain at the expectation stage for now.

Regarding @南都都要平常心's mention of 'starting to accumulate positions,' this approach isn't wrong, but one must acknowledge that it's left-side positioning, not right-side confirmation. Since Tencent hasn't shown a definitive reversal signal yet, the premise of accumulating positions means being willing to endure potential short-term volatility down to HK$480 or even lower. A more conservative strategy would be to wait until it stabilizes above HK$500 before considering further action.

Regarding @Banndddjdj saying 'it’s holding up well,' this statement is only partially correct. While Tencent hasn’t completely broken down like some weaker stocks, it also hasn’t shown enough strength. A more accurate interpretation is that it’s still struggling within the lower support range, rather than demonstrating resilience.

Regarding @@232742550Regarding @'s comment that the range between HK$470 to HK$480 represents an area of increased accumulation and support formation, this view is worth keeping for now. From the chart perspective, HK$476 indeed appears to be a significant recent low. If the price tests this level again without breaking it, the market will have stronger reasons to consider this as a bottoming zone. However, before a secondary confirmation occurs, it’s too early to make definitive claims.

Regarding @@学习静心果断Regarding @'s question 'Is there still hope?' and pointing out that the stock rebounded weakly just days ago and is now leading the declines again, this is exactly Tencent's core issue right now. It’s not that there haven’t been any rebounds, but they’ve been too weak to change the overall impression of a failed downward correction. So, it’s not entirely hopeless, but no clear turning point has emerged yet.

Overall, Tencent is still in a relatively weak consolidation pattern at present. To the downside, first look at 487.8 to 485 yuan, then 480 to 476 yuan; to the upside, first look at 495 to 500 yuan, then 508 to 512 yuan. The more reasonable judgment at this stage is: as long as the area around 485 yuan holds, the share price can still be considered consolidating at a low level; if it can stabilize above 500 yuan again, the trend might have a chance to upgrade from weak consolidation to a more meaningful recovery.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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