CNOOC has temporarily stabilized near HK$26 after a pullback. In the short term, this is profit-taking consolidation after a high, with key support watched at HK$25.80.

On April 13th, CNOOC closed at HK$26.64 for the day, with an intraday high of HK$27.16 and a low of HK$26.48. After earlier rising to HK$30.98, the stock saw significant profit-taking and recently stabilized around HK$26. The main resistance levels to watch are initially at HK$27.16, followed by the HK$27.80 to HK$28 range, and then the area near HK$29.10. Support levels are first seen between HK$26.48 and HK$26.40, with critical support near HK$25.80. Below that, attention should be paid to the HK$25.20 and HK$24.70 zones.

From a structural perspective, after the share price pulled back from its high, it is now hovering near the 20-day, 30-day moving averages, and the Bollinger Bands midline. There are signs of a slowdown in the short-term downtrend, but no clear re-strengthening yet. Therefore, at this stage, it is closer to initial consolidation following profit-taking rather than a new breakout. The short-term watershed is at HK$25.80. If it can hold steady and rise back above HK$27.16, there may be an opportunity to shift from consolidation to testing resistance again. If it breaks below HK$25.80, further profit-taking expansion must be guarded against, as the trend could shift into weaker consolidation.

Regarding @233583649 mentioning oil prices surging over 9% in a single day, and @1866287 feeling 'half of WTI’s increase would suffice,' this sense of disparity is precisely the core market sentiment surrounding CNOOC right now. Because if we only look at the theme, Middle Eastern tensions and oil price volatility should theoretically support oil stocks, but judging from the stock price movement, CNOOC is still clearly constrained by the HK$27 level, reflecting that funds are not willing to aggressively chase at current levels. In other words, a sharp rise in oil prices does not equate to an immediate synchronized increase in stock prices, especially when the stock itself is still in a consolidation phase after profit-taking at highs. The market prefers to observe first rather than immediately reassess.

Structurally, CNOOC previously fell back from a high of HK$30.98 and has been trending downward repeatedly since. Although recent preliminary support has emerged around HK$26, overall strength has yet to return. The current price is below the 10-day moving average (around HK$27.51), the 20-day moving average (around HK$28.45), and the 30-day moving average (around HK$27.88), but slightly above the 60-day moving average (around HK$25.74). This indicates that the short- to medium-term structure remains weak, and the current situation is more akin to post-decline consolidation rather than the start of a renewed uptrend. In other words, unless it can regain the HK$27 to HK$27.50 range, this trend will be difficult to define as a renewed strengthening.

Therefore, regarding@我要开心赚钱钱The phrase 'it seems desensitized to WTI' and@李三思2555the question raised, 'Why don’t you rise when oil prices rise, but fall when oil prices fall?' can be technically understood this way: the market is still pricing in a relatively cautious manner. After stock prices have retreated from their highs, the market won’t immediately push valuations back up due to a single day’s oil price spike, especially when the overall trend hasn’t reversed yet; short-term funds will be even more conservative. Therefore, it's not that there’s no reaction, but the reaction is clearly weaker than what investors expected.

Yes@昵称包含特殊字符, @231075493 and@dKObThese comments comparing CNOOC with$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ 、 $Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR.US)$ 、 $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$do reflect how the market feels. This is because compared to some overseas oil stocks or other sector peers, CNOOC's recent performance has indeed been slower, even somewhat following the pattern of 'others rise while you stay flat, others fall while you follow.' However, one point to note on the chart is that CNOOC isn't at a low position but rather undergoing a pullback after previous cumulative gains. Hence, the market isn’t completely denying its fundamentals but remains cautious about re-entering above HKD 27. In other words, the issue may not be a lack of value, but insufficient technical confirmation in the short term, causing funds to remain on the sidelines.

The most important technical levels are now clear. Below, first look at HKD 26.48 as the intraday low, then focus on the range between HKD 26.20 and HKD 25.80. This area is close to the current bottom of the consolidation zone and also near the lower Bollinger Band. If this zone holds, CNOOC still has the opportunity to maintain a sideways consolidation before attempting a rebound; however, if it breaks below HKD 25.80, be prepared for further downward expansion. On the upside, resistance is first seen at the psychological level of HKD 27, then at HKD 27.16, which was yesterday’s (October 13th) high, followed by the 10-day moving average near HKD 27.50. Only when the share price can stabilize above these levels again will the market start believing this isn’t just a weak rebound but a real preparation to regain strength.

Therefore, regarding @型版古天樂 mentioning 'only standing firm above HKD 26.56 ensures safety,' this direction is quite close to the current market situation. However, more accurately speaking, it’s not that standing firm at a certain price equals complete safety; instead, the support zone between HKD 26.4 and HKD 25.8 cannot be breached, while the upside must quickly reclaim HKD 27. Otherwise, the stock will continue to be stuck in a weak consolidation pattern where it ‘won’t fall too much but also can’t break through on the upside.’

As for @英俊瀟洒的拉爾夫As for asking 'will it reverse and drop,' the answer depends on whether HKD 26.48 and the support below it can hold. Currently, since the closing price remains at HKD 26.64, there hasn’t been a significant deterioration, but because the price hasn’t returned above key short-term moving averages, short-term fluctuations or even a reversal risk remain possible. In other words, this isn’t a position where one can be completely careless; instead, it’s a phase of guarding support and waiting for a breakout.

For @發大財的我 asking everyone at what price they bought and mentions in the comment section like the hometown level of HKD 28.73, the most practical view now is: if your cost is higher, the short term hasn’t reached a stage where you can truly breathe easy. From the chart perspective, CNOOC needs to first reclaim HKD 27 and HKD 27.5 before discussing higher levels. In other words, those holding positions at higher levels shouldn’t fantasize about an immediate return to highs right now, but rather see if the stock can turn the mid-HKD 26 support into a starting point for a rebound.

Overall, CNOOC isn’t completely weakened, but its structure still leans towards weakness over strength. Rising oil prices do provide background support, but until the share price rises back above HKD 27, the short term should still be viewed as consolidation after profit-taking from previous highs. At this stage, the more reasonable judgment is: HKD 26.48 to HKD 25.80 is the short-term support zone, and HKD 27 to HKD 27.50 is the critical resistance zone before regaining strength. Only by stabilizing above HKD 27 again will sentiment have a chance to improve significantly; otherwise, it remains a weak consolidation.

Based on the above situation, the deployment can be divided into the following two main strategies:

Strategy One: If it holds steady above $25.80 and breaks back above $27.16, long call warrants can be deployed accordingly.

Issuer Code Call/Put Strike Price Effective Leverage Price Expiry Date

$UBCNOOC@EC2607A.C (22559.HK)$ Call 28.900 8.2 0.249 2026-07-24

$HSCNOOC@EC2607A.C (22732.HK)$ Call 28.900 8.5 0.240 2026-07-24

$HUCNOOC@EC2607A.C (22526.HK)$ Call 28.880 8.9 0.224 2026-07-31

Strategy Two: If it breaks down below $25.80 and further tests $25.20, long put warrants can be deployed inversely.

Issuer Code Call/Put Strike Price Effective Leverage Price Expiry Date

$UBCNOOC@EP2609A.P (26838.HK)$ Put 24.860 5.0 0.175 2026-09-01

$HSCNOOC@EP2609A.P (27191.HK)$ Put 24.860 5.7 0.152 2026-09-01

$CICNOOC@EP2609A.P (26582.HK)$ Put 24.880 5.1 0.175 2026-09-08

Overall, CNOOC has not yet regained strength, nor has it completely weakened. Instead, it appears to have entered a consolidation phase after pulling back from its high. In terms of strategy, the focus is not on rushing to determine whether the bottom has been reached, but rather on observing whether the price can hold steady above 25.80 yuan and whether the stock price can regain a position above 27.16 yuan. Only if support holds and an upward breakout occurs would it be suitable to follow the trend; if support is broken, a defensive mindset should be adopted, waiting for a reassessment at a lower level.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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