Meituan-W (3690) back near HK$85.9: Key resistance at HK$90 awaits breakout, structured in three phases of warrant deployment.
Meituan-W (3690) closed at 85.85 yuan on April 13, with an intraday high of 87.1 yuan and a low of 85.6 yuan. What deserves the most attention now is not the single-day fluctuation, but whether the range between 85 yuan and 90 yuan represents a retest of resistance after a rebound or just another consolidation zone before a pullback after a surge. The stock price has rebounded from the earlier low of 73.6 yuan, gradually reclaiming the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages in the short term, but has recently softened again due to the drag from the broader market. The 90-yuan level above remains the most sensitive integer threshold and resistance zone. In other words, Meituan is not completely weak at this point but is repeatedly challenging key resistance without completing a confirmed breakout.
Technical Trends and Key Levels
- Short-term support: 86 yuan to 85 yuan (the main承接zone after recent rebounds); if it breaks below this, the next target would be 82 yuan to 80 yuan (gap-filling and secondary bottom-probing area mentioned in the comment section).
- Resistance levels: First look at 90 yuan to 91 yuan; if it can stabilize effectively, the next target will be 93 yuan to 95 yuan.
- Watershed: Near 85 yuan is the repair baseline, while 90 yuan serves as the sentiment and structure confirmation line.
Investor Comments
Judging from investor comments, market sentiment is actually very concentrated. For instance, @AfraidOfInternalRollingPleaseBuyUtilityStocks@怕內卷請買公用股, @LeiJun'sStocksForeverBlack@雷軍旗下股票一生黑、@oMountainAutumnoThese kinds of comments reflect that what everyone cares about most is not whether Meituan can rebound by a few dollars, but rather whether it can surpass the 90 yuan mark, which it has approached for the third or fourth time. This sentiment is understandable because 90 yuan is not just a psychological round number for Meituan, but also a crucial confidence threshold in the market after multiple unsuccessful attempts to break through. If it retreats every time it approaches this level, investors will naturally view it as 'inevitable dumping at 90'; if it can truly stabilize above it, the market’s perception of its upward potential would be completely different.
Another strong theme in the comment section is that the market's perception of Meituan’s price movement is quite negative, with many feeling it often surges quickly but fails to hold onto gains. Like @DailyEarningsHunter@每日搵餐飯錢、@Red Big General Bi,@Asuo Stock@阿索股、@Don't stay green and inactiveThe underlying sentiment behind these kinds of comments isn’t entirely pessimistic towards Meituan, but rather frustration that it rises quickly and falls just as fast, with rebounds lacking sustainability. This perception is quite common among high-volatility internet stocks, especially when there’s already disagreement over its fundamentals. Any failed attempt to maintain upward momentum is easily interpreted as 'another escape hatch.'
This divergence also stems from the tug-of-war between fundamentals and thematic drivers. When the market looks at Meituan now, it no longer focuses solely on food delivery and local services, but also incorporates new themes like Unitree Technology, platform rules, stablecoins, and other speculative ideas. However, on the other hand, old issues such as the food delivery war, cash-burning competition, and profitability pressures haven’t fully disappeared. This means Meituan's biggest issue right now isn’t the lack of a story, but that the new narrative hasn’t been strong enough to fully overshadow the old pressures. Therefore, whenever the stock price nears key resistance, the market naturally asks again: Is this a genuine resurgence or just a short-term spike driven by sentiment?
Another noteworthy phenomenon is the large presence of both trapped long positions and short-term traders. Like @Just want to go home, @Choice298、@I'm not playing anymore, give me my money back@我不玩了钱还我, @Sometimes it's really difficult@有时候真难 These kinds of comments reflect that a significant portion of the market funds are not purely chasing new upward trends but are instead burdened by clear cost pressures, position reductions, profit-taking, and covering short positions. This will make Meituan particularly prone to high-volume fluctuations around the 90 yuan mark, as there are those waiting for a breakout to jump in on one side and others who want to ease their pressure as it approaches their breakeven point. In other words, Meituan currently has a basis for a rebound, but this rebound is overshadowed by substantial psychological burdens and profit-taking pressures.
From the perspective of short-term reward-risk ratio, Meituan currently exists under conditional terms but with a relatively high divergence in value speculation. The reason is that the current price of 85.9 yuan is not far from the resistance level at 90 yuan. If it can stabilize successfully, the market could easily raise its target to 93 yuan or even 95 yuan, keeping the risk-reward ratio somewhat attractive; however, on the other hand, if 90 yuan cannot be broken through, or if it falls back below 85 yuan, the market will quickly revisit levels like 82 yuan, 80 yuan, or even scripts about gap filling and double bottoming. In other words, Meituan does have speculative value, but this value rests on the premise that the 90-yuan level must be effectively absorbed.
Three-phase deployment strategy for short-term trading of Meituan warrants
Strategy One | If it stabilizes above 87.1 yuan and breaks through 90.85 yuan, consider deploying call options
If Meituan can stabilize above 87.1 yuan and further break through 90.85 yuan, this would indicate that the short-term rebound could transition from recovery to expansion. Consider using closely priced or mid-to-high leverage call warrants for momentum-based deployment to capture the continuation of initial breakout gains.
Product Overview
-26081 $UBMTUAN@EC2608B.C (26081.HK)$ | Strike Price: 97.95 yuan | Actual Leverage: 6.8x | A call warrant closer to the current price, suitable for deployment when Meituan stabilizes above 87.1 yuan and breaks through 90.85 yuan.
-26109 $HSMTUAN@EC2608B.C (26109.HK)$ | Strike Price: 97.95 yuan | Actual Leverage: 7.1x | Strike price close to the current price with slightly higher leverage, suitable for short-term deployment anticipating continued upward momentum after a breakout.
-26027 $CTMTUAN@EC2608A.C (26027.HK)$ | Strike Price: 105.99 yuan | Actual Leverage: 7.8x | A more aggressive call warrant, suitable for early-stage breakout strategies aiming to enhance flexibility.
Strategy Two | If it breaks above 90.85 and further surpasses 93.66 to 94.00, aggressive call warrants can be used to chase the upward trend.
If Meituan breaks above 90.85 and further surpasses 93.66 to 94.00, it indicates that the rebound momentum may strengthen further. At that time, consider using aggressive call warrants to chase the trend, aiming for more elastic upward movement after the breakout.
Product Overview
-24978 $GJMTUAN@EC2607A.C (24978.HK)$ | Strike price 114.90 | Actual leverage 8.8x | A high-leverage call warrant, suitable for chasing the trend when Meituan breaks above 90.85 and further surpasses 93.66 to 94.00.
-25851 $BPMTUAN@EC2608B.C (25851.HK)$ | Strike price 106.00 | Actual leverage 7.2x | Offers both decent leverage and trend-chasing flexibility, suitable for those expecting a broader upward move post-breakout.
-25539 $CIMTUAN@EC2608A.C (25539.HK)$ | Strike price 106.00 | Actual leverage 7.4x | An aggressive call warrant, suitable for deploying when the stock price confirms breaking through to the next resistance level for an extended upward trend.
Strategy Three | If it fails to hold above 85.60 to 85.20 and falls below 82.00 to 80.70, consider using put warrants as a hedge against the decline.
If Meituan fails to hold above 85.60 to 85.20 and further drops below 82.00 to 80.70, it suggests this round of rebound may end, and the short-term trend could weaken again. At that time, consider using put warrants to hedge against the decline.
Product Overview
-19959 $BIMTUAN@EP2609A.P (19959.HK)$ | Strike price 86.88 | Actual leverage 3.7x | A relatively moderate put warrant deployment tool, suitable for hedging against declines after Meituan loses support.
-23054 $HUMTUAN@EP2609A.P (23054.HK)$ | Strike price 86.83 | Actual leverage 3.8x | Strike price close to current price, suitable for relatively balanced hedging when the stock price weakens.
-24278 $UBMTUAN@EP2609A.P (24278.HK)$ | Strike price 89.95 | Actual leverage 3.8x | An at-the-money put warrant, suitable for further hedging against declines after breaking below 82.00 to 80.70.
Deployment Summary
Although Meituan has seen some recovery at this stage, it retreated to HKD 85.9 on April 13 following the broader market correction. The overall trend has not completely broken away from a volatile pattern. In terms of strategy, it is advisable to use HKD 87.1 and HKD 90.85 as key levels for upward confirmation, and observe whether the rebound can evolve from partial strength into a more comprehensive upward trend.
- If it stabilizes above HKD 87.1 and breaks through HKD 90.85 → Implement Strategy One (26081, 26109, 26027) to go long in alignment with the trend.
- If it further breaks above HKD 93.66 to HKD 94.00 → Implement Strategy Two (24978, 25851, 25539) to aggressively chase the momentum.
- If it breaks down below HKD 85.60 to HKD 85.20 and falls below HKD 82.00 to HKD 80.70 → Implement Strategy Three (19959, 23054, 24278) to hedge against downside risk with put options.
Investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels and avoid making large bets before a confirmed breakout. The real voices in the comment section — “Every time it hits 90, it plunges” and “Gaps up sharply but fails to hold” — serve as reminders: waiting for confirmation signals is far more important than guessing the direction.
Friendly Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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