Xiaomi's weak consolidation continues; cautious rebound trading and prioritizing short positions are recommended.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$Currently trading at HKD 30.34, the intra-day low reached HKD 30.26, hitting a new yearly low. Xiaomi’s stock price has fallen below the 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60-day moving averages, and the overall structure remains weak, showing a pattern of near lower-bound consolidation. The most critical resistance range now is between HKD 31.30 and HKD 31.60. Until the price can stabilize above this zone, any rebounds should be considered technical pullbacks rather than signs of a confirmed bottom or recovery. Immediate support is at HKD 30.50, and if that level is breached, attention should shift to the support around HKD 30.00. If that area is also broken, the downtrend could intensify.

Strategy 1: Only consider short-term rebound trades if the price regains the range between HKD 31.30 and HKD 31.60.If the stock price can regain and hold above the range of HKD 31.30 to HKD 31.60, it indicates the possibility of transitioning from weak consolidation to technical recovery in the short term. At that point, short-term call options may be considered. However, as long as the overall structure has not reversed, such strategies should still be viewed as rebound trading, focusing on following the short-term recovery rhythm after reclaiming key resistance levels, rather than prematurely assuming a sustained upward trend.

$UBXIAMI@EC2609D.C (27868.HK)$ | Strike Price 41.82 | Actual Leverage 6.5x | Higher leverage, suitable for short-term rebound plays once the stock price moves back above the key threshold.

$BPXIAMI@EC2610B.C (26786.HK)$ | Strike Price 41.80 | Actual Leverage 6.6x | Terms and leverage are similar, ideal for following through with a breakout in the short term.

$HSXIAMI@EC2610A.C (27508.HK)$ | Strike Price 41.02 | Actual Leverage 6.0x | Slightly lower strike price with relatively balanced leverage, suitable for more stable rebound positions.

Strategy Two: If the price falls below 30.50, follow the downtrend.If the stock price breaks down below 30.50, it indicates that the current weak consolidation is extending further downward, and the market may retest near 30.00. At this point, following the downtrend would align better with the current structure. The focus of such positioning is to follow the continuation of weakness rather than waiting for a deep rebound before entering. Therefore, selecting put warrants with moderate actual leverage and clear terms is recommended for short-term operations.

$UBXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26121.HK)$ | Strike Price 28.16 | Actual Leverage 5.0x | Moderate leverage, suitable for following the downtrend after the stock price breaks below support.

$CIXIAMI@EP2607A.P (22857.HK)$ | Strike Price 29.88 | Actual Leverage 5.4x | Strike price closer to the current price range, suitable for short-term bearish continuation after a breakdown.

$GJXIAMI@EP2607A.P (25854.HK)$ | Strike Price 29.86 | Actual Leverage 5.1x | Similar terms, offering a straightforward choice for following the downtrend.

Strategy Three: If the rebound fails to exceed 31.30 to 31.60, and turns weak again, deploy closer-to-the-money puts.If the stock price rebounds but fails to break through 31.30 to 31.60 and subsequently weakens again, it suggests that the resistance at the key threshold remains effective, and the market is more likely to continue its downward search after a lackluster rebound. In this scenario, deploying closer-to-the-money put warrants would be more targeted because the focus is not on chasing the tail end of a significant decline but on capitalizing on the downward momentum after a failed rebound.

$BIXIAMI@EP2606C.P (22168.HK)$ | Strike price 32.18 yuan | Actual leverage 5.8x | A relatively close-to-the-money put option, suitable for deployment when the rebound stalls and weakness resumes.

$HUXIAMI@EP2606A.P (22693.HK)$ | Strike price 32.16 yuan | Actual leverage 5.7x | Terms are close to the current price range, making it more suitable for capturing a downturn after resistance failure.

$UBXIAMI@EP2606C.P (23000.HK)$ | Strike price 32.16 yuan | Actual leverage 5.3x | Also a relatively close-to-the-money option, suitable as a tool for deploying after a rebound weakens again.

Key Deployment PointsXiaomi remains in a weak trend at this stage; until the range of 31.30 to 31.60 yuan is recovered, it should not be considered that the decline has bottomed out. In terms of trading strategy, the more顺势approach would be to short after breaking below 30.50 yuan, or wait for a rebound to fail before deploying put options. Only when the stock price moves back above the pivot point will short-term call options have a more reasonable technical basis.

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This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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