Major data releases ahead! Could GDP and PCE trigger market volatility?
Looking Ahead to the Week | No progress in Middle East talks, differences remain; Fed officials speak frequently; US stocks enter Q1 earnings season, with Taiwan Semiconductor, CATL, and ASML set to report results
Key Schedule for the Coming Week
Continue to monitor Iran developments and follow-up on US-Iran negotiations (events throughout the week)
Continue to closely monitor Iran developments. According to CCTV News, US Vice President Vance stated that the US-Iran talks held in Islamabad, Pakistan, failed to reach an agreement, with clear differences remaining. The US delegation will return to the United States.
Fed officials speak frequently, ECB releases meeting minutes
The Federal Reserve:
TBD Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Board hosts 'Strengthening the U.S. Economy through Rural Investment: Jobs Forum'
At 00:15 Wednesday, Goolsbee, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Chicago Fed, participates in a panel discussion ahead of the Semafor 2026 World Economic Conference
Wednesday at 00:45, Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivers the opening remarks at a forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board
Wednesday at 01:00, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Federal Reserve Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat at a forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board
Thursday at 01:40, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks at the Institute of International Finance forum
At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book economic report
At 20:35 Thursday, Williams, permanent voter of the FOMC and president of the New York Fed, delivers a speech
Fed officials will make a series of speeches, and the Beige Book on economic conditions will be released on Thursday. Investors will then receive more key statements.
Currently, the market is gradually shifting toward a more hawkish view of the Fed, but Bank of America is opposing this trend. BofA maintains its forecast of two interest rate cuts in 2026 and informs clients thatthe Fed will eventually overlook supply-driven inflation, weak wage pressures, and political dynamics, instead of choosing to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.
Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave acknowledged that the bank's recent forecast revisions point to slightly softer growth and rising inflation. But he said these changes are not enough to alter the interest rate outlook. Bhave wrote in the report: 'Given the Fed’s tendency to look through supply-driven inflation, weak signs of wage pressure, and political pressures, we still expect rate cuts this year.'
The market will focus on the minutes of the European Central Bank's March 19 interest rate meeting.At that meeting, the ECB chose to 'stand pat,' but between the lines showed caution about geopolitical risks, especially the potential disruption from the Iran conflict on energy costs and the inflation path. As the preliminary March CPI unexpectedly surged from 1.9% to 2.5%, along with official Radew publicly urging vigilance against runaway inflation and supporting rate hikes, market sentiment has clearly shifted.For euro traders, these minutes will be the litmus test for gauging the 'hawkishness' of the decision-making level.
Key economic data such as China's GDP, imports and exports, consumption, industry, and real estate
Next week, a flurry of China's economic data including Q1 GDP, March imports and exports, industrial production, retail sales, and real estate will be released. On April 16, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the state of the national economy.
Huachuang Securities expects GDP growth to be around 5.0%. Exports in dollar terms for March are expected to increase by about 4.5% year-on-year, with imports rising by about 5%. Retail sales growth in March is projected to be around 3.3%.
IEA and OPEC release monthly oil market reports
Amid tensions in Iran, on April 13, OPEC released its monthly oil market report (the exact release time is yet to be determined, typically around 18:00-21:00 Beijing Time). On April 14, the IEA released its monthly oil market report.
Report: GPT-6 may be released
Leaked internal messages from OpenAI reveal that GPT-6, codenamed 'Potato,' is rumored to be released on April 14, boasting a 40% performance increase and a 2-million-token context window, internally defined as the 'final 20%' push toward AGI. Meanwhile, GPT-Image 2 made a stunning debut, generating images so realistic they are indistinguishable from real photos. Altman has scrapped Sora and placed a bet on computing power—this high-stakes AI gamble leaves no room for retreat.
Intensive aerospace events: Long March 10B expected to make its maiden flight in Hainan
Reports suggest that on April 19, the Long March 10B is expected to make its first flight from Wenchang, testing the world's first sea-based net recovery technology; in mid-to-late April, Zhuque 3 and Xingyun 1 will conduct reuse tests and their maiden flights respectively; overseas, SpaceX Starship V3 and New Glenn NG-3 are set to launch simultaneously. According to CITIC Securities, global space launches could exceed 300 times by 2026.
Key industry conferences: Canton Fair, Consumer Expo, World Copper Congress, IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, etc.
Next week, a series of key industry and international conferences will be held. Domestically, the Canton Fair opens on April 15; on April 16, Tencent co-hosts the Data Center Liquid Cooling Technology Conference; from April 13 to 18, the sixth Consumer Expo takes place in Hainan. From April 13 to 18, the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings will be held in Washington, D.C., during which the World Copper Congress will also take place in Chile, providing cutting-edge insights into refined copper and concentrate supply and demand.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers a public speech
Before the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision announcement on April 28, no major speeches by policy committee members are scheduled for this month. The only public appearance by Governor Kazuo Ueda will be on April 13, where he will speak briefly as one of several keynote speakers at a conference. How the Bank of Japan communicates its policy intentions before the April meeting is crucial. Traders currently estimate a 70% probability of a rate hike.
Moreover, next week US Vice President Vance and a series of Fed officials will deliver speeches, including Governor Bowman speaking at the Institute of International Finance forum, New York Fed President Williams giving a speech, and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participating in a panel discussion ahead of the World Economic Conference.
In addition, Russell Vought, the White House Budget Director, will attend a Senate Budget Committee hearing on April 16.
The semiconductor price hike wave is spreading, with Puyan Technology set to raise prices.
Since April, a price hike wave sweeping through the global semiconductor industry chain has been rapidly transmitting from cost-side to the entire supply chain. From international IDM giants like Infineon and Texas Instruments to domestic leading firms such as Nanyang Integration and Puyan Technology, price adjustment notices have been issued intensively. In the chip design sector, Puyan Technology announced that it would increase prices for general MCU-related products starting from April 15; Fengdiao Technology, Jetway Microelectronics, and Novosense's price hikes generally fall within the range of 10% to 20%.
Key earnings calendar for the new week.
Monday (April 13)
Keywords: Monitor changes in Iran situation, OPEC releases monthly oil market report, Bank of Japan governor speaks.
In terms of financial events,continue to closely monitor developments in the Iran situation. According to CCTV News, US Vice President Vance stated that the US-Iran talks held in Islamabad, Pakistan, failed to reach an agreement, with significant differences remaining between both sides. Delegations from both parties returned home.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a public speech.
In terms of economic data， On April 13, OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report (the exact release time is to be determined, usually around 18:00-21:00 Beijing Time).
In terms of earnings, $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ will announce its earnings before the US stock market opens.
Tuesday (April 14)
Keywords: Possible release of GPT-6, IEA releases monthly crude oil market report, earnings reports from Citi, JPMorgan and other companies
In terms of financial eventsInternal leaks from OpenAI have emerged one after another: GPT-6, codenamed 'Potato,' is rumored to be released on April 14 with a 40% increase in performance and a 2 million token context window, internally defined as the 'final 20%' push toward AGI.
In terms of economic data, the IEA released its monthly oil market report.
In terms of new stocks, $GPIXEL (03277.HK)$ 、 $MANYCORE TECH (00068.HK)$ the subscription period has ended.
In terms of earnings, $Blackrock (BLK.US)$ 、$Citigroup (C.US)$、 $Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$、$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ 、 $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ will announce its earnings before the US stock market opens.
Wednesday (April 15)
Keywords: Semiconductor price hike wave spreads, ASML Holding, Morgan Stanley and other companies' earnings reports
In terms of financial events, since April, a price hike wave sweeping through the global semiconductor industry chain has been accelerating from the cost side to the entire supply chain. Major international IDM manufacturers such as Infineon and Texas Instruments, along with leading domestic firms like Nexchip Integration and Puya Semiconductor, have issued dense price adjustment notices.
In terms of economic data, U.S. EIA gasoline inventory changes for the week ending April 10
In terms of earnings, $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ 、$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ Will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, Hong Kong stocks $CATL (03750.HK)$ Released financial report.
Thursday (April 16th)
Keywords: China's March retail sales data, speeches by Fed officials, release of the Beige Book on the US economic situation, Taiwan Semiconductor, PepsiCo and other companies' earnings reports
In terms of financial events，Fed officials will make密集 speeches and release the Beige Book on the economic situation on Thursday , at which time investors will receive more key statements.
Currently, the market is gradually shifting to a more hawkish view of the Fed, but Bank of America is countering this trend. BofA maintains its forecast of two interest rate cuts in 2026 and informs clients thatthe Fed will ultimately ignore supply-driven inflation, weak wage pressures, and political dynamics, and will not choose to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.。
In terms of economic data, China's total retail sales of consumer goods for March and the year-on-year GDP data for Q1
In terms of new stocks,$GPIXEL (03277.HK)$ 、 $MANYCORE TECH (00068.HK)$ listed via dark pool, $SIGENERGY (06656.HK)$ Listed.
In terms of earnings, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ 、 $PepsiCo (PEP.US)$ 、$Charles Schwab (SCHW.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, $Alcoa (AA.US)$ 、 $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ will release earnings after the US stock market closes.
Friday (April 17)
Keywords: China’s retail sales data for March, remarks by New York Fed President Williams, Taiwan Semiconductor, PepsiCo, and other companies’ earnings reports
In terms of new stocks,$GPIXEL (03277.HK)$ 、 $MANYCORE TECH (00068.HK)$ listed via dark pool, $SIGENERGY (06656.HK)$ Listed.
In terms of earnings, $LM Ericsson Telephone (ERIC.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, $CHINA TOWER (00788.HK)$ will release earnings after the US stock market closes.
Stay ahead with key financial events and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Economic Calendar/Selected macroeconomic data, seize the investment opportunity!
A new week begins, wishing all fellow investors successful investments!Editor/Lee
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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