Wall Street Briefing (April 11): US stocks were mixed on Friday, with the market leaning towards selective offense but risk appetite remained subdued; Nasdaq strengthened, oil prices continued to fall, and Bitcoin kept rising

Summary: US stocks were mixed on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 0.11%, Nasdaq up 0.35%, Dow Jones down 0.56%, and Russell 2000 down 0.22%; VIX fell back to 19.23, a single-day drop of 1.33%, market tension eased further, but did not fully switch back to offensive mode before the weekend. The most important trading context of the day was still the upcoming US-Iran talks on Saturday, causing crude oil to drop by 2.40%, but the market did not consider geopolitical risks completely resolved based on this. Meanwhile, US March inflation rose significantly due to oil price volatility, while April consumer confidence plummeted, leaving macro-level support for 'full optimism' lacking. In major asset classes, the US Dollar Index fell 0.11%, gold dropped 0.33%, crude oil fell to $95.63 per barrel, and Bitcoin's latest price was about $72,877, up 1.29% in a single day. Overall, ahead of the talks, the market preferred selective offense rather than full risk-on.

I. Major Events

1. As US-Iran talks approach, the fragility of the ceasefire weighed on risk appetite again

The key theme on Friday remained the shift from military threat to diplomatic negotiations in US-Iran relations, but negotiations themselves do not equal the disappearance of risks. The Iranian delegation arrived in Pakistan to prepare for talks with the US, while Trump continued to emphasize that the Strait of Hormuz remains Iran's most important bargaining chip. This also explains why the market was unwilling to bet on the most optimistic scenario before the weekend: although crude oil retreated significantly, capital did not fully return to traditional heavyweights and small caps as a result.

2. The inflation shock driven by oil prices has materialized, but core prices remain under control

US March CPI deteriorated significantly due to surging gasoline prices, marking the largest monthly increase in nearly four years; however, excluding energy, core price increases did not reach the worst expectations. For the market, this is more like a question requiring 'trade-offs': broad-based inflation pressure is evident, but core inflation hasn’t spiraled out of control. On the trading front, funds continued to favor structural allocations – Nasdaq maintained its upward momentum, but the Dow, financials, and consumer staples sectors performed weaker.

3. Consumption and unemployment data are weakening simultaneously, with oil prices harming the real economy

Consumer confidence plunged over 10% in April, while last week's initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected. Coupled with the IMF preparing to downgrade its global growth outlook, the market is starting to see more clearly that the oil price shock is not only reflected in inflation data but is also eroding household expectations, employment margins, and global growth. Corresponding to Friday's trading, the risk recovery looked more like 'partial clustering' rather than a comprehensive optimistic reassessment of the overall macro environment.

II. Major Trends

As of April 10, the repair over the past two weeks remained very strong, though internal differentiation has already re-emerged. QQQ rose 8.62% over two weeks, SPY increased by 7.16%, and IWM climbed 7.49%, indicating that the pullback triggered by geopolitical shocks in early April has largely been recovered. However, if we extend the view to three months, SPY is still down 1.84%, and QQQ remains down 2.36%, showing that the market hasn't returned to a truly favorable medium-term environment. Structurally, small-cap and value stocks continue to hold an advantage: IWM outperformed SPY over three months (0.59% vs -1.84%), and SPYV continued to outperform SPYG (-0.51% vs -3.07%), indicating that the medium-term underlying structure hasn't been rewritten by short-term growth surges. Meanwhile, SPYG gained 10.19% over two weeks, and MAGS rose 10.26%, suggesting that the strongest short-term offensive remains concentrated in growth and leading technology sectors. In other words, it's not 'all assets improving together,' but rather growth continuing to advance while traditional heavyweights and macro-sensitive directions begin to lag behind.

III. Market Sentiment

Sentiment is still recovering, but the pace has slowed. The VIX fell to 19.23, indicating that the high-pressure sentiment from previous days continues to decline, though the drop has significantly narrowed, and the market hasn't entered a fully relaxed state. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained at 38, not continuing to rise as it had in recent days, showing that subjective risk appetite temporarily paused before the weekend. On the options front, the Put/Call ratio fell from 0.9198 to 0.8828, reflecting reduced demand for protective hedging, though this level can't yet be called extremely optimistic. Taken together, these three indicators suggest the current situation is more like 'localized offense, overall caution.'

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs

Index ETFs have once again shown clear differentiation. QQQ rose 0.14%, making it the only major index ETF with positive returns; DIA fell 0.55%, performing the weakest. Considering the four major indices, Friday wasn’t simply a market pullback but rather funds staying within heavyweight tech while withdrawing some positions from traditional blue chips and broader risk assets.

2. Sector Performance

Sector rotation deserves more attention. The materials sector rose 0.56%, the steadiest performance of the day, while healthcare fell 1.35%, consumer staples dropped 1.29%, and finance declined 1.09%, all under pressure. This combination suggests the market hasn't returned to traditional defensive assets but is instead prioritizing cuts to traditional heavyweights that rely more on macro stability amid headline inflation, negotiation uncertainties, and growth concerns.

3. Seven tech giants

Within the seven major tech stocks, there is a continued bias toward AI themes. NVIDIA rose 2.57%, the strongest performer in the group, indicating investor confidence in AI-related resilience remains robust; Microsoft fell 0.59%, becoming the weakest in the group. In other words, although the tech sector is still supporting the index overall, internally it is shifting from broad gains to more focused pursuit of a few key themes.

4. Chinese Equities

Chinese concept stocks overall still lack a unified direction. JD.com rose 2.08%, one of the few individual stocks moving against the trend; Futu fell 0.50%, and the Chinese internet sector, which had weakened significantly the previous day, did not show consistent recovery. Friday’s China-related stocks appeared more like localized rebounds rather than funds returning to China-related assets.

5. Cryptocurrencies

The latest Bitcoin quote is around $72,877, up 1.29% for the day, continuing to strengthen along the high-risk appetite line. Among related stocks, CRCL rose 3.45%, indicating active capital inflow into crypto-related themes; however, this strength contrasts more sharply with the weakness in traditional sectors. From a broader market perspective, the crypto space on Friday remained locally strong, but it was not evidence of a full return of risk appetite.

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$ $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ $BTC/USD (BTCUSD.CC)$ $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ $ETH/USD (ETHUSD.CC)$ $iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$

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