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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Apr 10 11:25

Alibaba is testing the 20-day moving average. Should short-term traders bet on a continued rebound first, or wait for a breakout before chasing?

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The latest price is HK$126, and it has rebounded above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in the short term. It is currently consolidating around HK$126.63 along the 20-day moving average. The current stage appears to be the initial phase of a rebound following stabilization from lower levels, but not yet a full recovery. Short-term support lies between HK$121 and HK$120, with a key defensive line remaining at HK$117.50. Resistance is initially seen between HK$126.50 and HK$127, followed by HK$130 to HK$131.
Under this trading pattern, the focus of deployment is not placing all bets at once but staging positions according to price levels. If the share price holds above HK$120, one can start with more balanced products to bet on a continued rebound; if it breaks above HK$127, consider following the momentum; if it further recaptures HK$130, then higher-leverage products would be suitable for chasing the second leg of the rally.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The latest price is HK$126, and it has rebounded above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in the short term. It is currently consolidating around HK$126.63 along the 20-day moving average. The current stage appears to be the initial phase of a rebound following stabilization from lower levels, but not yet a full recovery. Short-term support lies between HK$121 and HK$120, with a key defensive line remaining at HK$117.50. Resistance is initially seen between HK$126.50 and HK$127, followed by HK$130 to HK$131. Under this trading pattern, the focus of deployment is not placing all bets at once but staging positions according to price levels. If the share price holds above HK$120, one can start with more balanced products to bet on a continued rebound; if it breaks above HK$127, consider following the momentum; if it further recaptures HK$130, then higher-leverage products would be suitable for chasing the second leg of the rally. Strategy One: Hold above HK$120 to HK$121, and bet on a continuation of the rebound from lower levels. The focus of this strategy is that the stock price remains supported and has the potential to test HK$126 to HK$127 from around HK$122. Product selection should prioritize those with closer strike prices and steadier performance. $UBALIBA@EC2812A.C (26932.HK)$ This could serve as a stable option within this group, with a strike price of HK$122.00 and an actual leverage of approximately 2.2 times. Such products have strike prices close to the current price, providing natural tracking performance, making them suitable for initial deployment near support levels. $HSALIBA@EC2609F.C (27506.HK)$ This also fits well with the strategy...
Strategy One: Hold the range between $120 and $121, betting on a continuation of the low-position rebound.
The focus of this phase is that the stock price hasn't lost support, with an opportunity to test $126 to $127 from around $122. Product selection should prioritize those with closer strike prices and steadier momentum.
$UBALIBA@EC2812A.C (26932.HK)$ This can be considered a more stable choice within this group, with a strike price of $122.00 and actual leverage of about 2.2 times. These products have strike prices close to the current price, offering natural tracking performance, making them suitable for deploying a rebound near the support level.
$HSALIBA@EC2609F.C (27506.HK)$ This also fits the strategy well, with a strike price of $112.98 and actual leverage of about 4.4 times. This product is more flexible than the former but still within a controllable range, suitable for betting on the first leg of recovery after the stock price stabilizes.
Strategy Two: Follow up after breaking through $126.50 to $127, betting on testing $130.
If Alibaba breaks above $127, it indicates the stock price is beginning to challenge the 20-day moving average resistance, potentially upgrading from the early rebound stage. At this time, medium-leverage products can be used for trend-following positioning.
$UBALIBA@EC2612B.C (27776.HK)$ This is a notable choice in this group, with a strike price of $145.10 and actual leverage of about 4.4 times. The product’s flexibility increases compared to Strategy One, making it suitable for follow-up after a breakout, targeting a rise towards $130.
$BIALIBA@EC2612B.C (27562.HK)$ Similarly, this belongs to the category of trend-following products, with a strike price of $145.10 and actual leverage of about 4.5 times. Its positioning is close to the former, suitable for short-term trend-following deployment after confirmation of breaking through resistance.
Strategy Three: After regaining $130, chase the second phase of the recovery rally.
If the stock price further stabilizes above $130, it not only represents reclaiming the 20-day moving average but also signals a challenge to the 30-day moving average resistance; at that point, products with higher elasticity can be considered to bet on the second phase of the recovery uptrend.
$UBALIBA@EC2609B.C (26544.HK)$ This is one of the more aggressive options in this group, with a strike price of 145.98 yuan and an actual leverage of about 6.0 times. If Alibaba confirms a reversal to strength, this type of product will react directly to increases.
$HUALIBA@EC2611C.C (27912.HK)$ It can also be used as a combination, with a strike price of 155.98 yuan and an actual leverage of about 5.2 times. This product has decent elasticity, but it's not extremely aggressive, making it suitable for capturing further upward momentum after the stock price returns to 130 yuan.
Key Deployment Points
At this stage, Alibaba is in the early phase of a rebound following a low position stabilization. The most critical things to watch are whether the 120-yuan support level holds and whether the 127-yuan resistance level can be broken. If the support holds, balanced products can initially be used to bet on a rebound; if 127 yuan is breached, trend-following products can be employed to track the movement; if 130 yuan is reclaimed, higher-elasticity strategies could be considered.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The latest price is HK$126, and it has rebounded above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in the short term. It is currently consolidating around HK$126.63 along the 20-day moving average. The current stage appears to be the initial phase of a rebound following stabilization from lower levels, but not yet a full recovery. Short-term support lies between HK$121 and HK$120, with a key defensive line remaining at HK$117.50. Resistance is initially seen between HK$126.50 and HK$127, followed by HK$130 to HK$131. Under this trading pattern, the focus of deployment is not placing all bets at once but staging positions according to price levels. If the share price holds above HK$120, one can start with more balanced products to bet on a continued rebound; if it breaks above HK$127, consider following the momentum; if it further recaptures HK$130, then higher-leverage products would be suitable for chasing the second leg of the rally. Strategy One: Hold above HK$120 to HK$121, and bet on a continuation of the rebound from lower levels. The focus of this strategy is that the stock price remains supported and has the potential to test HK$126 to HK$127 from around HK$122. Product selection should prioritize those with closer strike prices and steadier performance. $UBALIBA@EC2812A.C (26932.HK)$ This could serve as a stable option within this group, with a strike price of HK$122.00 and an actual leverage of approximately 2.2 times. Such products have strike prices close to the current price, providing natural tracking performance, making them suitable for initial deployment near support levels. $HSALIBA@EC2609F.C (27506.HK)$ This also fits well with the strategy...
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This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HKStocks #Real-TimeAnalysis #WarrantSelection #WarrantGuide #DerivativesHedging #HKWarrantsJenny #Alibaba #09988 #TechStock$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
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