April 9 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 1 - Hang Seng Index, Yangtze Optical Fiber, Alibaba

1. The Hang Seng Index stabilizing at 25,500 only counts as holding the key support; if it doesn't stabilize above 25,750, it can't be considered truly strong.

The most noteworthy aspect of the Hang Seng Index now is not how much it fell in a single day, but that the market has entered a tug-of-war zone with 'support below and no breakthrough above.' The latest daily chart shows the Hang Seng closed at 25,752.40 points, with an intraday high of 25,854.80 points, a low of 25,563.63 points, opening around 25,756.41 points, and turnover of approximately 244.977 billion HKD. From the structural trend perspective, although the index rebounded from the previous low of 24,203.54 points and has moved away from its weakest position, it still hasn't truly broken through medium-term resistance. Therefore, this phase is more about consolidation after a rebound rather than restarting a one-sided uptrend.

Technically, the Hang Seng Index still retains a short-term rebound framework. The 5-day moving average is around 25,368 points, the 10-day moving average around 25,180 points, and the 20-day moving average around 25,386 points. The current price remains above these moving averages, indicating that short-term support hasn't been broken. However, the 30-day moving average is around 25,589 points, the 60-day moving average around 26,226 points, and the 120-day moving average around 26,102 points, showing there's still a set of relatively dense medium-term pressures above. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is around 25,386 points, the upper band around 26,324 points, and the lower band around 24,449 points. The current price is above the midline but still has room before reaching the upper band, reflecting that the market is temporarily entering a mid-stage consolidation after rebounding from the lows, and hasn't reached a strongly bullish area yet. The RSI is approximately between 49 and 62, which is neutral and stable, meaning the sentiment isn't bad but isn't very strong either.

In terms of price levels, initial support is seen at 25,563 points, today's low; the next level down is around 25,327 points, which is a significant support area during the recent rebound. If that breaks, then we look to 25,025 points. On the resistance side, first up is 25,756 points, followed by the 25,893 to 25,931 point range. If a further breakout occurs, then the next target would be near 26,223 points. In other words, the current pattern of the Hang Seng Index is clear: holding around 25,500 points only means the short-term outlook hasn't worsened; for true improvement, it still needs to stabilize again within the 25,750 to 25,930 point resistance zone.

At this chart position, both bullish and bearish investors have their own rationales. The bullish side believes that since the Hang Seng Index has stabilized at 25,500 points, tomorrow it may have the opportunity to rise towards 26,000 points, or even reclaim the 26,000-point bearish warrants, hence they are willing to hold long positions overnight. This thinking isn't without basis, as the charts indeed show that the market hasn't broken through the recent rebound structure, and below there is support from the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, so technically it still makes sense for the index to test higher resistances.

The issue, however, is that holding the support does not necessarily mean an upward breakout has been confirmed. This is because between the current price and the 26,000-point level, there are still key resistance levels at 25,756 points, 25,893 points, and 25,931 points. Therefore, the bulls are not exactly riding the trend, but rather betting that support will hold and that the market will first test higher levels. This kind of strategy can work, but it remains somewhat aggressive in nature as it relies on 'not breaking down' rather than 'having broken out.'

On the bearish side, overnight bear contracts with a recovery price of 26,130 points have been chosen, based on expectations that U.S. stocks will retreat tonight, leading to a drop of at least 300 points in the Hang Seng Index tomorrow. The rationale here is that although the Hang Seng has rebounded, it has not managed to break through to higher resistance areas yet, and any minor disturbance in external markets could easily prompt Hong Kong stocks to reflect risks first. From this perspective, bears are not entirely unreasonable, as the index is indeed still within a relatively weak intermediate-term framework.

Similarly, if we only consider the current daily chart, for bears to immediately extrapolate a drop of 'at least 300 points or more' is actually a fairly subjective prediction. This is because the chart has yet to show clear deterioration signals, with neither the 25,563-point nor 25,327-point levels being breached. Thus, this view essentially bets on resistance remaining effective, compounded by external drag, rather than the market signaling through prices that it is about to decline.

If we further examine from a professional market viewpoint, the current closer framework suggests that the mid-term outlook is not necessarily pessimistic, but the short-term isn't ready for excessive optimism either. In other words, Hong Kong stocks do have upside potential, but they may not follow the most straightforward or comfortable path upward; and the volatility near resistance levels in the short term remains very real.

Therefore, combining technical charts, investor strategies, and overall market perspectives, the most reasonable judgment for the Hang Seng Index now is neither extreme bullishness nor extreme bearishness, but rather a very typical middle ground. There is support around the 25,500-point level, which holds true; reaching 26,000 points is possible, but requires first breaking through the resistance zone between 25,750 and 25,930 points; predicting another drop of over 300 points doesn’t fully align with the chart yet.

The approach with a higher payoff probability isn’t to predict whether tomorrow will definitely kill bearish or bullish positions, but to wait for the market to choose its direction: if it climbs back above 25,756 points and further breaks through 25,893 to 25,931 points, the logic of the bulls will start to stand firmer; if it first falls below 25,563 points and then breaches 25,327 points, the bears’ positioning will become more compelling.

In summary, the most accurate characterization of the Hang Seng Index at present is consolidation after bouncing off lows. What’s most likely to emerge in this position is not a one-sided trend, but both sides of investors believing they’re right. The chart's answer to the market is simple: holding 25,500 only means no deterioration yet; standing firm above 25,750 indicates improvement starting. In such a scenario, what truly deserves respect is not predicting how U.S. stocks will perform tonight, but whether Hong Kong stocks tomorrow can first break out or fail via price action. $BI#HSI RC2801V.C (65083.HK)$$UB#HSI RC2807H.C (57993.HK)$$UB-HSI @EC2606A.C (24012.HK)$$HS-HSI @EC2606A.C (24099.HK)$

After surging to 243 yuan, and breaking through 242.8 to set a new high, does buying call warrants at this moment bet on continued momentum or the final peak?

What draws the most attention to Changfei Fiber Optic Cable now is not whether it has strengthened, but that it has entered a phase where impulsive chasing is most tempting. The latest closing price was 240.40 yuan, up 15.60 yuan or 6.94% for the day, with an intraday high of 243.20 yuan and low of 218.80 yuan, and a turnover of approximately 5.326 billion yuan. Looking solely at this daily chart, the stock price is not just rising—it has entered a very strong breakout zone with accelerating momentum. Hence, the question becomes sharp: After breaking through 242.8 and setting a new high, is it still worth chasing call warrants?

First, let’s look at the technical structure. The current price is far above all major moving averages: the 5-day line is around 204.62 yuan, the 10-day line around 192.30 yuan, the 20-day line around 174.13 yuan, the 30-day line around 164.27 yuan, the 60-day line around 121.04 yuan, the 120-day line around 80.77 yuan, and the 250-day line around 53.05 yuan. This arrangement represents not an ordinary rebound, but a textbook bullish alignment, already deep into the latter stages of the uptrend. The Bollinger Bands’ midline is around 174.13 yuan, with the upper band at about 224.05 yuan, and the current price has clearly detached from the upper band—a very strong position but also highly susceptible to significant volatility. The RSI is hovering around 70 to 81, indicating an overheated area. This doesn’t mean the stock is about to top out, but it certainly shows that chasing further offers less favorable risk-reward compared to when it was trading at 180 or 200 yuan.

From a price perspective, the most important short-term support levels to watch are between HKD 225.70 and HKD 224.80, which is near today's opening price and before the recent upward move; the next key level would be HKD 218.80, today’s low. If even that level fails to hold, only then would we look at HKD 208.92. As for resistance above, since the stock has already entered uncharted territory, there isn't much immediate resistance except for today's high at HKD 243.20 and the psychological market level of HKD 245. If the stock truly stabilizes above HKD 243, naturally, some investors will target HKD 250 or higher. However, the issue at that point won’t be whether we can reach those levels but whether you can withstand the pullbacks in between.

The question raised by investors is: after breaking through HKD 242.8 and reaching new highs, is it still possible to buy call warrants? This statement needs to be analyzed in two parts. The first part, “breaking through HKD 242.8 and reaching new highs,” is directionally sound because today's high reached HKD 243.20, meaning the market has already entered this zone. The second part, “can we still buy call warrants?” is where the real challenge lies. Call warrants aren’t just about getting the direction right; they also depend on your entry point, short-term volatility, implied volatility, and whether you can handle time decay if the stock merely moves sideways at these elevated levels.

If we’re only discussing the trend, Chang Fei remains relatively strong at the moment, and this cannot be denied. There are no obvious signs of weakness on the charts; the distance between the 20-day and 10-day moving averages from the current price is still significant, indicating the uptrend remains intact. The latest fundamental catalysts visible in the market are also positive: the company expects revenue growth of 16.8% year-over-year to RMB 14.252 billion in 2025, with net profit increasing by 20.4% to RMB 814 million, and a final dividend of RMB 0.295 per share. These figures explain why the stock has been continuously attracting capital recently.

Looking at more professional opinions in the market, sentiment toward Chang Fei over the past few months has clearly warmed up, but there’s also a growing sense of caution regarding its short-term upside despite optimism over fundamentals. On the aggressive side, attention is mainly focused on rising demand for high-end optical fiber products driven by AI data centers and market speculation around its subsidiary, Changxin Bochuang. On the cautious side, warnings are emerging that the stock has risen too much from its lows. Although target prices have been raised, ratings may not become more bullish accordingly. In other words, while the story is far from over, the stock has already surged significantly.

This is precisely the core risk when chasing call warrants at this moment. If you buy the underlying stock, the worst-case scenario is dealing with pullbacks from elevated levels. However, if you buy call warrants, especially in this situation where the RSI is overheated and the stock has already deviated significantly above the upper Bollinger Band, the pressure on warrant holders will be much greater than on stockholders if the stock doesn’t continue surging linearly but instead moves sideways around HKD 243 or retreats to digest gains between HKD 225 and HKD 230. In other words, chasing call warrants now isn’t betting on the medium-term trend but rather on a short-term acceleration. While this trade isn’t impossible, it inherently carries high risk and requires precise timing.

To put it more directly, at this stage, Chang Fei isn’t “unworthy of optimism” but rather “unsuitable for aggressively chasing with the riskiest tools.” The underlying stock can still be viewed from a trend-following perspective because as long as it holds above HKD 224.80, the overall uptrend can be sustained. However, call warrants are different due to their extreme sensitivity to time, volatility, and entry points. Chasing them now means unless the market gaps up tomorrow straight to HKD 245-250, even minor fluctuations at these elevated levels will make your position look very unattractive.

Therefore, if asked whether call warrants can still be bought after breaking through HKD 242.8 and reaching new highs, the answer isn’t simply yes or no—it’s nuanced: Yes, but only suitable for extremely short-term, aggressive traders who are prepared to exit immediately if momentum fades. A more conservative approach would involve waiting for the stock to complete a normal pullback, confirming whether support re-emerges between HKD 224.80 and HKD 218.80, before considering the next round of positioning, which would offer a much better risk-reward ratio compared to chasing at current levels.

In summary, Chang Fei Optical Fiber & Cable’s current most accurate positioning is that of a fundamentally strong stock with an extremely powerful trend, but one that has now entered a high-volatility, high-risk zone in the short term. Being bullish on its direction isn’t problematic, but chasing call warrants now isn’t about buying cheap—it’s about buying into the hottest part of the rally. What truly deserves close attention isn’t whether it will reach new highs again, but whether, after doing so, it can hold above HKD 225 without turning the rally into fleeting fireworks. If it holds, there’s potential for the stock to push further toward HKD 250. If it doesn’t, those who chased call warrants will feel the pain of shakeouts faster than stockholders. $HS-YOFC@EC2608A.C (26155.HK)$

3. Alibaba has fallen back to near HKD 123. The key consideration for those looking to buy the dip, chase puts, or bet on a drop to HKD 110 isn’t about direction but whether HKD 124 has been decisively broken.

The most conflicting aspect of Alibaba Group (09988) right now is that while the stock has retreated significantly from its highs, it hasn’t dropped to a point where the market unanimously turns bearish. The latest daily chart shows the stock closed at HKD 122.90, down HKD 3.60 or 2.85% on the day, with an intraday high of HKD 124.00, low of HKD 122.00, opening at HKD 131.10, and turnover of approximately HKD 10.14 billion. Looking at the recent structure, after falling from its peak of HKD 174.20, the stock found support around HKD 117.50 before rebounding, though it remains in a weak recovery phase within a downtrend. This means what the market truly needs to resolve now isn’t “whether Alibaba is worth holding long-term” but whether the current rebound can stabilize.

Technically, Alibaba is still in a weak rebound pattern. The 5-day moving average is around 121.92 yuan, the 10-day moving average is about 122.78 yuan, and the current price is just hovering near these two short-term moving averages; the 20-day moving average is approximately 127.02 yuan, the 30-day moving average is around 130.31 yuan, the 60-day moving average is about 145.42 yuan, and the 120-day moving average is roughly 150.54 yuan, with the 250-day moving average at about 136.62 yuan, all still higher than the current price, indicating that the mid-term weakness has not reversed. The midpoint of the Bollinger Bands is around 127.02 yuan, the upper band is approximately 138.93 yuan, and the lower band is around 115.10 yuan. The current price is below the midpoint, meaning the stock price is still within a weak range but not too far from the lower band, suggesting there may be limited downside space, though it is gradually approaching a level where a seesaw battle could more easily occur. The RSI is around 41 to 48, which is neutral-to-weak, reflecting that buying interest is not particularly strong but also not at an extreme panic level.

If we analyze by price levels, the first support is around 122 yuan, followed by around 118.7 yuan, and then the recent low of 117.5 yuan. If this area breaks, the market will naturally start looking towards 113.7 yuan or even 110 yuan. On the resistance side, the short-term focus is on 123.8 yuan to 124 yuan, then 127 yuan, and after that, 128.8 yuan to 133.8 yuan. In other words, Alibaba’s current situation is clear: near 122 yuan is the first key short-term support, above 124 yuan is the first threshold for recovery, and 127 yuan is the critical point indicating whether the rebound can continue.

At this chart position, the question “Can I buy now?” is not uncommon. The rationale behind this idea is that the stock price has already fallen significantly from its high of 174.2 yuan to near 122 yuan, and recently there was some buying interest at the low of 117.5 yuan, giving the impression that it won’t get much worse. This thinking isn’t entirely wrong because if you only look at short-term risk-reward, the current price indeed feels more comfortable than chasing at higher levels. Additionally, near 122 yuan isn’t far from the recent low, so at least it’s not the worst place to chase gains.

But the issue is that being close to a low doesn’t mean a bottom has been confirmed. Alibaba’s biggest problem right now isn’t that the valuation is too expensive, but that the structure hasn’t yet stabilized. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are just entangled around the current price, while the 20-day and 30-day moving averages continue to weigh down the stock, showing that the market isn’t ready to view Alibaba as a strong performer again. In other words, buying now can be understood, but fundamentally it’s still a contrarian bet that 117.5 yuan won’t be broken, rather than betting that the trend has clearly improved.

Another group of investors is more pessimistic, believing that the share price will fall to 110 yuan, thus deploying bearish products like put options or even bear certificates. The advantage of this view is that it follows the broader trend. After all, following the pullback from the highs, Alibaba remains in a downward channel, with neither the 20-day nor the 30-day moving averages reclaimed. The market’s short-term attitude toward the stock remains conservative. If we’re just looking at the trend, siding with the bears isn’t unreasonable.

However, this strategy carries a risk: it’s too close to the recent low. The current price is only a few percentage points away from 117.5 yuan, and opening very short-term, aggressive puts or bear certificates here means betting on another immediate breakdown in a zone that has already seen significant declines and is near recent support. It’s not impossible, but the risk-reward might not be as attractive as when the price broke below 127 yuan or 130 yuan. Simply put, going short now may have decent odds, but the risk-reward profile isn’t as ideal as it was early in the trend.

Adding in more professional perspectives, the picture becomes clearer. Recent research reports, while adjusting target prices, still lean toward positive ratings for Alibaba. The core debate isn’t about “whether it’s good or bad,” but rather “how much time to give” and “how to digest short-term profit pressures.” The more optimistic analysts still see cloud business maintaining high growth, with AI and model services expected to be key growth drivers in the coming years. The more conservative side warns that market expectations for customer management revenue growth and losses in other businesses may be too high, and short-term earnings structure might not be entirely surprising. Thus, even with a positive rating, there are instances of target price downgrades. This suggests Alibaba’s real market positioning: the medium-term story remains intact, but the short-term stock movement isn’t fully aligned.

This also explains why there are currently three prevailing views in the market: one group believes “it’s fallen enough, time to buy”; another thinks “follow the money flow, keep putting”; and a third is targeting 110 yuan. None of these perspectives are entirely baseless—they simply operate on different time frames. The bullish side is betting on short-term support holding, while the bearish side aligns with the medium-term weakness. Those targeting 110 yuan are betting that support will eventually fail. The key issue isn’t who’s more reasonable, but whether the supports at 122 yuan, 118.7 yuan, and 117.5 yuan will hold. If they do, bearish bets will become awkward; if not, bargain hunters will find themselves in a tough spot.

So, when considering technical factors, investor sentiment, and professional market views together, the most reasonable conclusion for Alibaba right now isn’t simply “you can buy” or “it will definitely fall to 110 yuan.” A more accurate statement would be: the current price is near an observable support zone, but it’s not yet a confirmed turning point for a bullish reversal. At the same time, the current price remains weak, but betting heavily on a drop to 110 yuan before breaking 117.5 yuan is still aggressive.

In summary, Alibaba’s most accurate positioning right now is as a tech leader with a solid medium-term story, weak short-term momentum, and currently stuck above a support zone. Those considering buying aren’t entirely without reason, but they need to understand they’re betting on support holding. Those staying bearish aren’t without basis either, but to bet on 110 yuan, a more convincing signal would be a break below 117.5 yuan. At this juncture, what deserves the most respect isn’t subjective judgment—it’s the price itself. If Alibaba can hold between 122 yuan and 117.5 yuan, it has a chance to make a weak recovery; breaking below this zone would turn the 110 yuan talk from sentiment into technical extrapolation. $UB#ALIBARC2608C.C (66215.HK)$$UBALIBA@EC2607E.C (26541.HK)$$HSALIBA@EC2607C.C (26739.HK)$$JP#ALIBARC2611A.C (66071.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met and should be used alongside other data for a comprehensive assessment of asset performance; trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s HK warrants for more professional insights. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$$HKEX (00388.HK)$

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