What has happened to those who went all-in on gold?

The recent gold market has been more thrilling than a roller coaster ride.

Not long ago, it surged past historical highs, and the scene of everyone rushing to buy gold is still fresh in memory. Then it suddenly plummeted, causing many who chased the highs to be filled with fear. Just when things had stabilized for a few days, it started wide-range fluctuations again, moving up and down repeatedly.

Many friends have privately messaged asking: With gold being so volatile, is it still worth buying now?

Let’s get straight to the conclusion: For those looking to speculate short-term with leverage for quick profits, this kind of market behavior should be avoided, as capital preservation is key; but for long-term investors seeking asset preservation and inflation hedging, gold remains an irreplaceable “anchor” in asset allocation.

What exactly has gold experienced recently?

To determine whether gold is worth buying, one must first carefully study its recent true performance. After all, data speaks louder than emotions.

- The year 2026 started with a strong rally in the gold market, marking a 'good start.' In January, the London spot gold saw its strongest start since 1980.

- March 17: The closing price for international spot gold was $5,003.82 per ounce, setting a new historical record;

- March 18: A single-day plunge of 3.86%, closing at $4,813.53 per ounce, wiping out nearly $200 in value within a day;

- March 20: Another sharp drop of 3.42%, reaching as low as $4,477.11 per ounce, with a daily loss exceeding $150, and a total pullback of over $300 in just three days;

- March 26: A further decline of 2.74%, closing at $4,381.91 per ounce, and at one point dropping to $4,099, the lowest level since March;

- April 1-7: Entered a rebound-volatility mode, rising 1.91% on April 1 to close at $4,758.25 per ounce, falling 1.71% on April 2 to close at $4,676.86 per ounce, and gaining 1.15% on April 7 to close at $4,701.40 per ounce, with weekly volatility exceeding 3%.

It can be seen that the maximum drawdown in international gold prices exceeded 10% in March alone, and in April entered a volatile cycle of 'up one day, down the next,' with daily fluctuations frequently surpassing 1%. Volatility significantly increased compared to January-February, completely breaking away from the previous unidirectional upward trend.

The erratic movements of gold prices

Given such volatile market conditions, we would also like to ask our readers to reflect deeply: do you truly have the ability to navigate the current market environment?

Moreover, while it appears that the military conflict between the US and Iran has temporarily ceased, considering Trump's unpredictable and inconsistent nature, there is no guarantee he won’t make some extreme moves. The destructive impact of his actions on global stock markets and futures markets is evident. Many aggrieved netizens angrily commented, 'All the analysis seems powerful, but in reality, stock trading depends entirely on Trump.'

Netizens create parody comics

Three key factors determine the future direction of gold

In fact, the rise and fall of gold prices are not random; there is a clear underlying logic driving them.Based on the latest developments in 2026, we believe that the core influencing factors revolve around three major aspects.

The first factor remains the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy directly affects the movement of the US dollar and the opportunity cost of holding gold, acting as the 'baton' for gold price fluctuations. At the March Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate within the range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive meeting where no action was taken. This outcome was far below market expectations of 3-4 rate cuts. Coupled with stronger US economic data, a high-interest-rate environment is expected to persist longer, meaning that gold will likely remain trapped in a volatile pattern in the short term.

On the other hand, however, the downside potential for gold is also very limited. Despite significant pullbacks in gold prices, central banks’ pace of purchasing gold has not changed, which effectively eliminates the possibility of a deep correction in gold prices.According to the latest news reports, global central banks have maintained net purchases of gold for 19 consecutive months. The People's Bank of China has been continuously increasing its gold reserves for 17 months, adding 4.98 tons in March alone, bringing its total reserves to 2,313 tons, accounting for 9.5% of its foreign exchange reserves, which is still significantly lower than the global average of approximately 15%. A research report from Northeast Securities pointed out that central bank purchases reflect a long-term strategy to 'de-risk and diversify' reserve assets. This trend is expected to continue at a normalized pace, with flexible increases during price pullbacks, providing strong fundamental support for gold prices.

Moreover, as mentioned earlier, frequent geopolitical conflicts are affecting the pricing of global assets, including gold.However, after reviewing past geopolitical conflicts, Guohai Securities found that wars only bring short-term risk-aversion spikes. What truly determines the medium-term trend of gold prices is whether oil prices push up the inflation center and whether the Fed adjusts its monetary policy. Currently, geopolitical uncertainty will continue to disturb the movement of gold prices.

Gold price trend after geopolitical conflict (%), source: Guohai Securities

Different groups have completely different purchasing answers.

Gold is not a 'one-size-fits-all' asset; people with different needs, risk tolerance levels, and market judgments have completely different answers.

After collecting some professional analyses from the market, we found thatFrom the perspective of current mainstream institutional forecasts and professional analysis, there is a significant divergence in core views between the bulls and bears on the trend of gold prices, directly determining the cognitive differences among different groups regarding gold allocation.

Bullish institutions represented by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan believe that gold still has strong upward support. On one hand, expectations for Fed rate cuts remain, which could continue to boost gold prices. On the other hand, global central banks’ ongoing gold purchases have solidified the bottom of gold prices. Coupled with escalating geopolitical risks and the continuous advancement of global de-dollarization trends, gold’s monetary attributes and safe-haven value are being repriced, making the long-term upward logic clear. Some institutions even predict that gold prices could reach $6,300 by 2026.

Bearish institutions represented by Citi and Bloomberg hold cautious views. They point out that the current premium of gold prices over the 60-month moving average has reached its highest level since 1980. Meanwhile, the gold-to-oil ratio has hit historical extremes, indicating a clear regression and repair need for gold valuations. Additionally, profit-taking, selling pressure from some central bank reductions, and high oil prices keeping inflation from falling, which lowers the probability of Fed rate cuts, result in persistently high opportunity costs for holding gold, posing numerous obstacles to upward movements in gold prices.

Neutral views suggest that gold is currently dominated by real interest rates and geopolitical events in the short term, with weekly adjustments yet insufficient and lacking catalysts for another major rise. In the medium term, gold will trade within a wide range around the core zone of $4,000–$5,000, with $4,000–$4,100 as the key support level. In the long run, central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization trends still provide underlying support, but geopolitical conflicts can only bring short-term risk-aversion spikes and cannot be converted into trend-setting rallies. Gold lacks the basis for a sustained plunge and does not have the conditions for rapid surges.

Conclusion

Gold is not something you can't buy, but it depends on the group of people, the logic, and the timing.

If you want to make a quick profit by trading gold in the short term, the current market is absolutely unsuitable. Especially for those who still dream of getting rich overnight through sharp fluctuations and leverage, it's better to stop believing in your 'luck'.

If you plan to hold gold long-term with the aim of hedging against inflation and optimizing your family's asset structure, then following the central bank’s lead won’t be wrong. Now is a good time to allocate. Of course, you should control your position and buy in batches, rather than going all-in at the sight of so-called 'opportunities', so as not to affect your overall cost.

If you are a young person preparing for marriage, there is really no need to dwell on the current price of gold. The core value of gold jewelry lies in wearing and emotional significance, not investment, so don’t view it through the lens of investing, so as not to waste your youthful years.

As long as we don’t enter the market with idle money, avoid chasing highs or holding heavy positions, and refrain from short-term reckless trading, buying gold won’t result in losses.

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